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Flaherty as defensive replacement for Reynolds


CA-ORIOLE

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The poor logic is ignoring the improvement he was showing prior to getting here. He had gotten pretty much every year and his last 2 years in Arizona, he showed himself to be more than capable of being good enough at third.

I find it ironic that you are talking about fluctuations as poor logic when really, you are concentrating on what you saw last year and ignoring the improvement he had shown in his CAREER prior to last year.

In 3 of the 4 years in Arizona, he was "fine" over there and the year he wasn't, he was still only costing his team 1 win with his defense...its not that big of a deal.

You bring up his career number...of course, that is much higher because of his awful season last year.

So basically, you are concentrating on one year, which makes his career numbers look much worse and treating it as gospel and yet me, bringing up his improvement and showing what he did in a much larger sample size is somehow "poor logic". That's an interesting theory you have there. Its wrong and awful but interesting nonetheless.

EDIT: Even looking at BBR, coming into last year, his defense cost his team less than 1 win a year in his time in Arizona. Again, that's not great or anything but its not awful and certainly not as bad as last year here in BMore. What we saw last year is a killer. What he did in Zona was "good enough to get by".

The question is, how long can you ride with this logic? Let's say it's May 31, and Reynolds has made 10-12 errors and is carrying a UZR of -10 or so. Do you continue to say, "he will revert to his performance from Arizona," or do you say "this isn't working, I have to move Reynolds off 3B?"

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The question is, how long can you ride with this logic? Let's say it's May 31, and Reynolds has made 10-12 errors and is carrying a UZR of -10 or so. Do you continue to say, "he will revert to his performance from Arizona," or do you say "this isn't working, I have to move Reynolds off 3B?"

I already said in this thread that I give him until June.

Like CA said(and something I have talked about a lot on here), by that time, we should have more of an answer of what to do with Davis.

Not to mention, its not like we have a third baseman in waiting, just ready to take over. We have nothing for third(and please, don't start with Andino, Flaherty or anyone else).

We basically have no other alternative right now...so, let's just see how he progresses over the next few months and re-evaluate at that time.

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I already said in this thread that I give him until June.

Like CA said(and something I have talked about a lot on here), by that time, we should have more of an answer of what to do with Davis.

Not to mention, its not like we have a third baseman in waiting, just ready to take over. We have nothing for third(and please, don't start with Andino, Flaherty or anyone else).

We basically have no other alternative right now...so, let's just see how he progresses over the next few months and re-evaluate at that time.

Well, if you've read the thread you know that I basically agree with this. It's just a matter of exactly when you pull the plug, if it's not working out. And that is a function of just how bad the problem turns out to be. I think he gets at least 1/3 of the season to show whether he's improved over last year.

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The poor logic is ignoring the improvement he was showing prior to getting here.

Why? Because he had one year with a plus 2.5 UZR 150? One year of Plus 2.5 UZR 150 might mean he was 8-9 runs below average.

Even if there was a meangful positive trend (which I doubt there was), there certainly isn't one now.

he showed himself to be more than capable of being good enough at third.

I'll go with his rate of efficiency over 5 years....when the stats are somewhat stable..... and call him well below average.

I find it ironic that you are talking about fluctuations as poor logic when really, you are concentrating on what you saw last year and ignoring the improvement he had shown in his CAREER prior to last year.

Since I'm projecting his performance based on his career norms, I'm guessing you can figure that is just flat wrong.

You bring up his career number...of course, that is much higher because of his awful season last year.

Or much better because of his 2010? Which is it?

So basically, you are concentrating on one year,..............

No I'm not. I'm looking at the entirity of his work over 5 years. A career 930 FP% (about 25 points below league average for the position) and a UZR/DRS rate of between minus 10.5 - minus 12 at third base.

bringing up his improvement and showing what he did in a much larger sample size is somehow "poor logic".

Utilizing defensive metrics the way you and some others are using them is poor logic. That's pretty well established and can be confirmed by some basic research.

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We basically have no other alternative right now...so, let's just see how he progresses over the next few months and re-evaluate at that time.

I pretty much agree with this. We can make some patches (my main point in the the OP). I think I may be a little quicker to pull the trigger than you (around mid-May or sooner). Just depends on how bad he is.

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A lot depends on his bat as well. The better he is hitting the more we can afford to carry his glove. If he isn't hitting it, becomes increasingly problematic.

The hitting thing is pretty interesting in itself. His Babip has declined about 70 points in the past two years. More breaking balls and more swings out of zone with the expanded strike zone imo (as well as what I'm seeing with the fangraphs data). If I thought he could take balls to RF I might be more optimistic about his offense. I'm pretty sure he won't cut down the K rate with any significance.

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Why? Because he had one year with a plus 2.5 UZR 150? One year of Plus 2.5 UZR 150 might mean he was 8-9 runs below average.

Even if there was a meangful positive trend (which I doubt there was), there certainly isn't one now.

I'll go with his rate of efficiency over 5 years....when the stats are somewhat stable..... and call him well below average.

Since I'm projecting his performance based on his career norms, I'm guessing you can figure that is just flat wrong.

Or much better because of his 2010? Which is it?

No I'm not. I'm looking at the entirity of his work over 5 years. A career 930 FP% (about 25 points below league average for the position) and a UZR/DRS rate of between minus 10.5 - minus 12 at third base.

Utilizing defensive metrics the way you and some others are using them is poor logic. That's pretty well established and can be confirmed by some basic research.

Do you disagree that last year was an extreme outlier compared to his previous years? Heading into last year, did you think he was going to be a disaster at third? Do you think his numbers from last year greatly effect his career totals?

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The hitting thing is pretty interesting in itself. His Babip has declined about 70 points in the past two years. More breaking balls and more swings out of zone with the expanded strike zone imo (as well as what I'm seeing with the fangraphs data). If I thought he could take balls to RF I might be more optimistic about his offense. I'm pretty sure he won't cut down the K rate with any significance.

What do you consider a "significant" drop in K rate? Last year he had 15 fewer strikeouts than in 2010, despite having 24 more PA. So, his K/PA dropped from 35.4% to 31.6%. To me, that's reasonably signficant. That said, I'd be pretty surprised if his K rate dropped below 30%.

As to Reynolds' BABIP, I think it was a bit fluky-low last year, considering that his GB rate went up and his IF/FB rate went down. I think there's a good chance his BABIP improves in 2012.

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Do you disagree that last year was an extreme outlier compared to his previous years? Heading into last year, did you think he was going to be a disaster at third?

Of course not (that he would be a disater at third), but 2010 may have been an outlair also. Maybe not as extreme as last year, but still an outliar. That's the nature of defensive metrics. You need 3-4 years of data and that data needs to be pro-rated and not averaged. I saw the UZR ratings as you did and was of the opinion that maybe he was improving and maybe our scouts saw something. But understanding the metrics (and what happened), I'm not going to be locked into an opinion that they did indicate a positive trend.

As I've said/indicated many times here, I've based my analysis off his career's work and not his performance last year.

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What do you consider a "significant" drop in K rate? Last year he had 15 fewer strikeouts than in 2010, despite having 24 more PA. So, his K/PA dropped from 35.4% to 31.6%. To me, that's reasonably signficant. That said, I'd be pretty surprised if his K rate dropped below 30%.

As to Reynolds' BABIP, I think it was a bit fluky-low last year, considering that his GB rate went up and his IF/FB rate went down. I think there's a good chance his BABIP improves in 2012.

Yeah, I know he cut his K rate down, but I'm not sure I'd call it significant. As far as the babip goes, I'm not totally sure what to make of it. It's certainly possible (even probable) it could increase with a high GB rate, but he also may be looking at shifts being an extreme pull guy. A lot of guys have can have higher/lower babips than normal but his has declined a lot the past two years, not just last year. and his GB rate wasn't as high the previous year. Like I said I see him getting more offspeed stuff and swinging at more out of zone stuff. The latter being a function of the expanded strike zone imo. I don't know how much is luck and how much is poor contact/approach trying to pull outside pitches. I suspect it relates more to contact/approach than luck.

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As far as the babip goes, I'm not totally sure what to make of it. It's certainly possible (even probable) it could increase with a high GB rate, but he also may be looking at shifts being an extreme pull guy. A lot of guys have can have higher/lower babips than normal but his has declined a lot the past two years, not just last year. and his GB rate wasn't as high the previous year. Like I said I see him getting more offspeed stuff and swinging at more out of zone stuff. The latter being a function of the expanded strike zone imo. I don't know how much is luck and how much is poor contact/approach trying to pull outside pitches. I suspect it relates more to contact/approach than luck.

I am not a big believer in luck playing a major role in BABIP. Since I never really saw Reynolds play before last year, it's hard for me to say how his approach may differ from earlier in his career. Just looking at pitch data, I don't see any huge fluctuations in his approach that would be the obvious cause of a lower BABIP, but it is pretty clear that he is getting a very steady diet of offspeed pitches over the last two years compared to earlier in his career, so perhaps that is related.

In any event, if Reynolds repeated his 2011 performance at the plate, I'd be satisfied with that part of his game.

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I am not a big believer in luck playing a major role in BABIP. Since I never really saw Reynolds play before last year, it's hard for me to say how his approach may differ from earlier in his career. Just looking at pitch data, I don't see any huge fluctuations in his approach that would be the obvious cause of a lower BABIP, but it is pretty clear that he is getting a very steady diet of offspeed pitches over the last two years compared to earlier in his career, so perhaps that is related.

In any event, if Reynolds repeated his 2011 performance at the plate, I'd be satisfied with that part of his game.

If that is coupled with a career ave. -10 UZR that would be about a 2 fWAR player. I'll take that.
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.. but it is pretty clear that he is getting a very steady diet of offspeed pitches over the last two years compared to earlier in his career, so perhaps that is related.

Yeah, that does appear to be the main thing. I'd have to go back, but I'm pretty sure your seeing more ooz swings as well. I think the latter is true for a lot of players with an expanded strike zone (imo) over the past couple of years. If they're being called strikes ...... you're forced to swing at them.

if Reynolds repeated his 2011 performance at the plate, I'd be satisfied with that part of his game.

Yeah, but I would be thrilled if he could improve his BA and get his OBP up around .340 this year. Reynolds is somewhat of a quandery.

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Yeah, that does appear to be the main thing. I'd have to go back, but I'm pretty sure your seeing more ooz swings as well. I think the latter is true for a lot of players with an expanded strike zone (imo) over the past couple of years. If they're being called strikes ...... you're forced to swing at them.

Yeah, but I would be thrilled if he could improve his BA and get his OBP up around .340 this year. Reynolds is somewhat of a quandery.

I think he could probably do those things if he was willing to sacrifice 10-15 HR. Would you settle for that?
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