I dont think I've ever seen that many O's strike out looking

[Mayor McCheese]

I agaree with the Ted Williams school. Don't swing at pitches you can't hit, regardless of the umps strike zone.

I am pretty sure swining at pitches that are mm's out of the strikezone do not apply here.

Their pitchers adjusted to what the umps were calling, the O's hitters should have adjusted as well, thinking outside and just fighting one off if have to or going with the pitch.

Baseball is a game of adjustments.

[pinkfloydrayford]

Umpire was absolutely terrible. Unions at their best, once again.[/QUOT

I generally don't harp on umpires. They're human beings and have good days and bad, just like the rest of us. But the practice of rotating umpires from game to game needs to end. When Chuck Thompson was calling games, he used to have the occasional mini-rant about it. MLB should really follow the NFL model. The back judge is not the head linesman the following game. They have fixed assignments. Baseball should have the same, and promote from within as needed. Being a plate umpire should be earned, as it is the job of most importance. I also feel rather than appealing to first or third depending on righty or lefty, all appeals should go to the second base ump, he would seem to have a better view.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I agaree with the Ted Williams school. Don't swing at pitches you can't hit, regardless of the umps strike zone.

Except there's a difference between can't hit and would prefer not to hit. Reality is the strke zone has gotten bigger the past couple of years and we'll need to adjust.

[El Gordo]

Except there's a difference between can't hit and would prefer not to hit. Reality is the strke zone has gotten bigger the past couple of years and we'll need to adjust.

Expand the zone when you get 2 strikes, other wise stay within your hitting zone, IMO.

[El Gordo]

The stick your head in the sand approach. I like that. That will show those umps. You can call it a strike but we're not swinging anyway. Take that. Ooops! Strike 3!

I'll stick with Ted:

:My first rule of hitting was to get a good ball to hit. I learned down to percentage points where those good balls were. The box shows my particular preferences, from what I considered my “happy zone” - where I could hit .400 or better - to the low outside corner - where the most I could hope to bat was .230. Only when the situation demands it should a hitter go for the low-percentage pitch. Since some players are better high-ball hitters than low-ball hitters, or better outside than in; each batter should work out his own set of percentages. But more important, each should learn the strike zone, because once pitchers find a batter is going to swing at bad pitches he will get nothing else. The strike zone is approximately seven balls wide (allowing for pitches on the corners). When a batter starts swinging at pitches just two inches out of that zone (shaded area), he has increased the pitcher’s target from approximately 4.2 square feet to about 5.8 square feet - an increase of 37 percent. Allow a pitcher that much of an advantage and you will be a .250 hitter."

It seems to me you should be worried more about what the pitcher is likely to throw you than what today's umpire is likley to call.

[Tony-OH]

To directly answer your question:

1. The team has had 10 at bats with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs, and has scored the runner 4 times (40%) compared to league average 52%. One fewer run than expected.

2. The team has had 7 at bats with a runner on 2B and nobody out and has moved the runner over 4 times (57%) compared to league average (53%).

Perception is different from reality. There is this commonly-held belief that other teams are near-automatic at moving runners in these situations, whereas in truth the league-wide success rate is barely over 50%. The Yankees so far this season have only a 36% success rate with a runner on 3B and less than 2 out, and a 50% success rate with a runner on 2B and nobody out. These situations aren't automatic at all and the Orioles haven't been dramatically different from other teams in terms of success rate.

Well guess what Rick, they sucked pretty damn bad last night and you can throw out all the "small sample" size stats you want and it's not going to change the fact that the Orioles suck at situational hitting. What are the Orioles average with RISP? something tells me it's pretty poor.

The Orioles scored four runs off a pitcher that threw five wild pitches, and wild pitched in three runs. They then took a vacation off a series of Yankees relievers. Now you can ignore what happened or you can say it's just one game, and honestly you would be right about it being just one game, but I've seen enough failure from this basic same group of guys to conclude this is the same old same old.

I like that you are optimistic, that's great, the Orioles need optimistic fans that will continue to make excuses for them. Unfortunately, I'm tired of watching the Yankees walk in and embarrass the Orioles. I'm tired of Yankees fans coming into Camden Yards and shilling out their "Let's go Skankees" chants, and I'm tired of the Orioles rolling over the second they see pinstripes. The Orioles have been 5-13 against the Yankees for what the last 2-3 years? I make the mistake of caring every spring and every year the Orioles do something like last night to take that enjoyment and shove it where the sun don't shine. It's not that the Orioles lost last night, all teams lose, but they lost because Markakis can't use simple fundamentals for catching and throwing from the outfield that allowed a run to score. They lost because the Orioles continue to run out one the worse defensive third baseman's in baseball (something he's proved year in and year out), and they lost because they can't manufacture one stinking run off the Yankees bullpen in seven damn innings after only scoring four runs off a pitcher who threw five wild pitches, while walking three.

I don't care how the "stats" shake out already (most of the good numbers came from playing the horrid Twins I'm sure), but when its mattered the Orioles have come up small again. Year after year its the same thing. when a couple, people feel good, Yankees come to down, reality check. It sucks and its not fun.

So maybe some people's therapy is to try and find the silver linings. The little small sample stats that give you hope that all is not lost. For me however, it's to prepare myself and other Orioles fans that this is just another sub-par, below average, flawed team.

Hammel, Hunter and Arrieta all threw well, but their histories all suggest they will come back to earth. When that happens, who is going to step up? Chris Davis and his .359 SLG% over the last three years manning first base instead of real slugging first baseman? Nolan Reimold leading off? Reynolds striking out like Jai Miller's brother from another mother?

You can convince those who want to be convinced that all is well, but by the end of the season most people will be saying, "You were right Tony." I don't want to be right, but the last two nights against the Yankees just highlighted for me that I've seen this all before over the last 14 years.

I for one am not going to make excuses for them and I'm not going to sugar-coat guys so the masses will think they are better than they are.

/RANT

[TGO]

RISP for the O's so far is .146/.205/.195

Six of our seven HRs have been solos, the other a 2-run HR.

[Frobby]

Well guess what Rick, they sucked pretty damn bad last night and you can throw out all the "small sample" size stats you want and it's not going to change the fact that the Orioles suck at situational hitting. What are the Orioles average with RISP? something tells me it's pretty poor.

The Orioles scored four runs off a pitcher that threw five wild pitches, and wild pitched in three runs. They then took a vacation off a series of Yankees relievers. Now you can ignore what happened or you can say it's just one game, and honestly you would be right about it being just one game, but I've seen enough failure from this basic same group of guys to conclude this is the same old same old.

Yeah, I'd say it was just one game. The O's were just slightly below league average in those "move the runner" situations last year, and they were slightly above average in hitting with runners in scoring position. And putting aside all the minutiae, the offense was almost dead-on average in the category that really matters, runs scored. I expect them to be in about the same place this year, though I'm hoping for slightly better because our new players by and large have better OBP's that the guys they replaced.

Don't get me wrong here, I'm not expecting a winning season. I think I've made that quite clear. But the main reason for that is I expect the pitching to remain below average, even if improved from last season. The offense isn't elite, but it is decent. The last two nights have been frustrating from the standpoint of clutch hitting and situational hitting. There will be other nights that aren't so frustrating. Here is the Orioles' RISP hitting by month last year (estimated based on cumulative season totals through the end of each month):

April: .937 OPS with RISP

May: .721 OPS with RISP

June: .634 OPS with RISP

July: .624 OPS with RISP

August: .809 OPS with RISP

September: .763 OPS with RISP

If there is a .300 point swing from best to worst month, imagine what the swing was week-to-week or in a stretch of 2 to 5 games. But at the end of it all, we had a .748 OPS with RISP and that was 7th in the league -- average, or slightly above. That is what I expect this offense to be, despite its obvious flaws. That's not sugar coating anything, that's looking at the objective facts.

[primetime]

At what point though does Buck, Presley or the players amongst themselves decide that an in game adjustment is needed? That's where I have an issue.

The stats are what they are but watching last night's game, it was blatantly obvious that Yankee relievers were attacking the middle of the plate with fastballs early in the count.

Cory Wade and David Phelps both pitched multiple innings so we got a good look at both of them, yet we seemed content to take strike 1 at bat after at bat.

Sorry, ranting a bit. Last night's game was just a microcosm of the futility against the Yankees over the last few years and tiresome to see the same old story play out time and time again.

[Sports Guy]

Well guess what Rick, they sucked pretty damn bad last night and you can throw out all the "small sample" size stats you want and it's not going to change the fact that the Orioles suck at situational hitting. What are the Orioles average with RISP? something tells me it's pretty poor.

The Orioles scored four runs off a pitcher that threw five wild pitches, and wild pitched in three runs. They then took a vacation off a series of Yankees relievers. Now you can ignore what happened or you can say it's just one game, and honestly you would be right about it being just one game, but I've seen enough failure from this basic same group of guys to conclude this is the same old same old.

I like that you are optimistic, that's great, the Orioles need optimistic fans that will continue to make excuses for them. Unfortunately, I'm tired of watching the Yankees walk in and embarrass the Orioles. I'm tired of Yankees fans coming into Camden Yards and shilling out their "Let's go Skankees" chants, and I'm tired of the Orioles rolling over the second they see pinstripes. The Orioles have been 5-13 against the Yankees for what the last 2-3 years? I make the mistake of caring every spring and every year the Orioles do something like last night to take that enjoyment and shove it where the sun don't shine. It's not that the Orioles lost last night, all teams lose, but they lost because Markakis can't use simple fundamentals for catching and throwing from the outfield that allowed a run to score. They lost because the Orioles continue to run out one the worse defensive third baseman's in baseball (something he's proved year in and year out), and they lost because they can't manufacture one stinking run off the Yankees bullpen in seven damn innings after only scoring four runs off a pitcher who threw five wild pitches, while walking three.

I don't care how the "stats" shake out already (most of the good numbers came from playing the horrid Twins I'm sure), but when its mattered the Orioles have come up small again. Year after year its the same thing. when a couple, people feel good, Yankees come to down, reality check. It sucks and its not fun.

So maybe some people's therapy is to try and find the silver linings. The little small sample stats that give you hope that all is not lost. For me however, it's to prepare myself and other Orioles fans that this is just another sub-par, below average, flawed team.

Hammel, Hunter and Arrieta all threw well, but their histories all suggest they will come back to earth. When that happens, who is going to step up? Chris Davis and his .359 SLG% over the last three years manning first base instead of real slugging first baseman? Nolan Reimold leading off? Reynolds striking out like Jai Miller's brother from another mother?

You can convince those who want to be convinced that all is well, but by the end of the season most people will be saying, "You were right Tony." I don't want to be right, but the last two nights against the Yankees just highlighted for me that I've seen this all before over the last 14 years.

I for one am not going to make excuses for them and I'm not going to sugar-coat guys so the masses will think they are better than they are.

/RANT

Yes, Tony you are right...This isn't a good team and is flawed across the board.

Is that news?

[Frobby]

Yes, Tony you are right...This isn't a good team and is flawed across the board.

Is that news?

Tony's post says so many things I don't even know what he thinks he will be right about. Is he saying the offense will be worse than last year? Is he saying we'll be worse at situational hitting or RISP hitting than we were last year? Is he simply saying the offense won't be "good," whatever that is supposed to mean?

I expect this team to score somewhere between 30 runs less than league average and 30 runs more than league average. In other words, I expect the offense to be average, plus or minus a little.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Tony's post says so many things I don't even know what he thinks he will be right about. Is he saying the offense will be worse than last year? Is he saying we'll be worse at situational hitting or RISP hitting than we were last year? Is he simply saying the offense won't be "good," whatever that is supposed to mean?

I expect this team to score somewhere between 30 runs less than league average and 30 runs more than league average. In other words, I expect the offense to be average, plus or minus a little.

I think it's just the frustration of losing to the freakin Yankees year after year. It is getting to me quite frankly. I wish somebody would punch Girardi right in the mouth.

[El Gordo]

When you have two strikes and the pitch (even if it's slightly off the plate) is likely to be called a strike, I think meets the criteria of "when the situation demands it". When the situatioin demands it, is a huge gray area as well.

If you ignore what the umps strike zone is that day you are just being ignorant.

I believe I said you should expand the zone with two strikes.

"Expand the zone when you get 2 strikes, other wise stay within your hitting zone, IMO."

Go back and re read post #59.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I believe I said you should expand the zone with two strikes.

"Expand the zone when you get 2 strikes, other wise stay within your hitting zone, IMO."

Go back and re read post #59.

What's the league BA with 2 strikes?

[El Gordo]

What's the league BA with 2 strikes?

Whats your point? Go back and read Ted's advice and then explain to me in your superior wisdom why he's wrong.