Keith Law: "O's Mishandling Bundy"

[allstar1579]

Somebody else asked a Bundy question:

June sounds late to me - I bet it's earlier than that.

Three starts of 4IP every 6 days =18 days from Tuesday the 17th, so May 1st @ 5IP would be a good time as it wouldn't disrupt a rotation as much if he's going 5 per start. If they gave him 4 starts at 5IP at 24 days would put him in line for June 1 and a bump up to 6IP.

Not sure what they are thinking but I figure any combo in that group is possible.

[allstar1579]

He's saying that I assumed there should be an innings limit when that's one of the things that needed to be decided.

I'm pretty sure Peterson said they were going to keep him under 125.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Might as well throw this one in, too:

jsh (Maryland)

Why do you hate the Orioles? Did they turn you down for a job once?

Klaw (1:43 PM)

Do you understand how provincial that mindset is? I'm a national writer who covers all 30 organizations (plus colleges, HS, etc.). I don't "hate" any team. I analyze what I see and hear. Only the most small-minded fan confuses that analysis for personal bias.

[LookinUp]

I don't want to get into the semantics (as the time involved to get Bundy to the right level will be negligible, IMO) and I might agree that "mishandled" is a poor word choice.

I would question, however, whether the Os thought Bundy would find DelMarva too easy. I mean, among others, Os brass had Wright, Simon, Berry and Bundy in spring training. I find it very difficult to believe, based on prior reports and stuff displayed in spring training, that the Os did not realize Bundy was pitching on a completely different level than the other HS draft pick sent to DelMarva and the two college arms sent to Frederick.

Which suggests that they saw other value in sending him to Delmarva, like getting used to traveling, or pitching every 6 days, or establishing confidence against better hitters, or wanting him to be an example for guys like Bridwell and the other pitchers in Delmarva, or proximity to a particular pitching coach, or they really wanted to see what he was like against this level of competition, or (I think most likely) they wanted him on a real team instead of extended spring training. I think this assignment is to help Bundy establish a professional routine w/o pressure and get him through a full season. Maybe he could have done that at extended spring training and maybe at Frederick (I suspect he could), but I think the rationale of erring on the side of conservative with the most elite arm this organization has seen since Mussina makes plenty of sense.

[sbsd123]

Rick Peterson and a few other coordinators just spent a week with the Shorebirds. Maybe it is as simple as they knew they would be there and they wanted to spend time with him in real game situations before he moves up. Even as great as Bundy is, and I saw him live, no one could have known how well he would adjust. He is pretty special, especially for his age. It is obvious being at low A is not challenging him, but there is a lot for young guys to learn off the field too. I, for one, am glad he is playing where he is at. My kid is on the team and I think Bundy's work ethic and focus have been good for the other players to see, and it seems that the pitchers on the team have all stepped up this year. My guess is he moves after one more start. But who knows. During one of his outings, I asked a scout what he thought. He said he needs to go to AA where they can hit his fastball. Even if he misses spots in low A, the hitters aren't able to do anything with it. In AA he will have to learn how to use other pitches and pitch out of the stretch. That's when we really find out just how advanced he is.

[Frobby]

Is there a precedent for how the Os are handling Bundy?

When I think of the best, fastest moving HS pitchers in the past 25+ years, I think of Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Josh Beckett, Todd Van Poppel, Felix Hernandez, Rick Porcello, etc and juco arms like Loewen, Zito, etc. IMO, it certainly sounds like Bundy belongs in this elite group. Perhaps I could use a refresher, but I don't recall any of them being developed in this manner.

Young prospects should be at levels that they should succeed and develop confidence, but I also like to see a prospect somewhat challenged in a league relative to his skill level. That's not happening here. Bundy is in the same rotation as Tim Berry and a level below Simon and Wright.

I try to give the Os the benefit of the doubt for their logic in instances like this, but IMO their handling of Bundy leaves them open to legit criticism of the kind being leveled by Law.

I must be missing your point. How many of these pitchers started in AA, as Law is suggesting?

[Jimbo81]

I must be missing your point. How many of these pitchers started in AA, as Law is suggesting?

Without looking I'm guessing zero...

EDIT: After looking, zero...

[Slappy]

Strasburg and Hultzen both started at AA but both were 21 year old college players.

Bauer started in A+.

Taillon and Zach Wheeler both started in the Sally.

Law really doesn't have much of a case here, he's just drumming up controversy to get attention, like many "journalists".

Now, if Bundy is still throwing 50 pitches in Delmarva by Memorial Day, then there's something to gripe about.

[SoBo]

Cause I'm WAY more concerned with him learning to do his laundry than facing hitters that my allow him to grow as a pitcher. As to learning to be a pro, I think the biggest thing to learn is how to fail. I'm not advocating putting him in AAA to see him flop so he can learn how to overcome failure, but I'm just pointing out that I don't see how living on your own and all is such a hard thing that you need not be challenged in your job.

Again, I don't think this hurts him, but as an Orioles fan that has endured through so many losing seasons (as we all have), I don't want to see us waste his time and delay his arrival to the big leagues unnecessarily.

It was joke to make the point of the fact he's about 10 months removed from High School. I understand that he's impressive for his age from a maturity stand point. But he's still 19. I've seen enough of our young prospects rushed from level to level to their detriment to be content to see the O's take their time with Bundy. If Tony's time line is accurate and he's pitching in OPACY in June 2013 I'd say his month in Delmarva will be an afterthought.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there a precedent for how the Os are handling Bundy?

When I think of the best, fastest moving HS pitchers in the past 25+ years, I think of Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Josh Beckett, Todd Van Poppel, Felix Hernandez, Rick Porcello, etc and juco arms like Loewen, Zito, etc. IMO, it certainly sounds like Bundy belongs in this elite group. Perhaps I could use a refresher, but I don't recall any of them being developed in this manner.

I'm not sure historical precedence is the best metric, since nobody really knows how to best develop young arms. Or that there is a best way. Avery was throwing 6-7 innings a start from age 18 on, and his arm died in his mid 20s. Van Poppel probably shouldn't be an example for anything, maybe more of a cautionary tale. Loewen may have gotten hurt no matter what, but he did get hurt early. Zito's peak as a Cy Young caliber pitcher was done at 25.

Maybe going three innings a start has positive impacts way down the road. I don't think any of us are in a terribly good position to know.

May/June of 2013 is fine, it ensures a 7th year of team control.

Two main reasons to promote him faster then Gurgi is projecting.

1- The other players. By 2014 Nick and JJ will be in the final year of their deals, Wieters will only have one full year left under team control and Jones will probably be gone. I also want to give Bundy as much time in the majors with Machado as possible. The O's need to concentrate what talent they have.

2- The money. Bundy signed a five year deal with a fixed salary running from 2012-2016 that means he will not be arbitration eligible until the deal expires.

3. Improve the big league ballclub

4. If you go out on a limb and assume he's like a lot of super-advanced young arms, he'll be in decline or on the operating table in his mid 20s. I want as many of his innings in the majors as possible.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It was joke to make the point of the fact he's about 10 months removed from High School. I understand that he's impressive for his age from a maturity stand point. But he's still 19. I've seen enough of our young prospects rushed from level to level to their detriment to be content to see the O's take their time with Bundy. If Tony's time line is accurate and he's pitching in OPACY in June 2013 I'd say his month in Delmarva will be an afterthought.

Yeah, there was Kwame Brown, who seemed to be really mature, but when he had to live on his own just threw his $1,000 suits in the corner when he was done wearing them and bought new ones, and ate every meal at Popeyes. You never know.

[Frobby]

Strasburg and Hultzen both started at AA but both were 21 year old college players.

Bauer started in A+.

Taillon and Zach Wheeler both started in the Sally.

Law really doesn't have much of a case here, he's just drumming up controversy to get attention, like many "journalists".

Now, if Bundy is still throwing 50 pitches in Delmarva by Memorial Day, then there's something to gripe about.

I looked a couple of years ago and there were a only handful of college starters who started in AA in the last 15 years. Prior, Mulder (AAA!), Dewon Brazelton (why?) and Strasbrug are about it, IIRC. Even guys like Price and Verlander didn't start in AA. I hadn't heard that Hultzen was starting there -- pretty aggressive, but he has struck out 16 in 9.2 innings so I guess you can't complain (though his BB rate and ERA are high right now).

So, the idea that Bundy is being "mishandled" and should be in AA is ridiculous. If he's good enough for that level, he will be there soon enough. And he won't be in Delmarva until June 1, either.

[crissfan172]

Strasburg and Hultzen both started at AA but both were 21 year old college players.

Bauer started in A+.

Taillon and Zach Wheeler both started in the Sally.

Law really doesn't have much of a case here, he's just drumming up controversy to get attention, like many "journalists".

Now, if Bundy is still throwing 50 pitches in Delmarva by Memorial Day, then there's something to gripe about.

Yes...but supposedly Bundy is as polished as most college pitchers, thus why he feels he should start at AA. I think there's room for debate, but starting him in Delmarva felt pointless to me, and he's proving that he doesn't belong there already.

[allstar1579]

Yes...but supposedly Bundy is as polished as most college pitchers, thus why he feels he should start at AA. I think there's room for debate, but starting him in Delmarva felt pointless to me, and he's proving that he doesn't belong there already.

Being as polished as a college pitcher, and having thrown the same number of innings as a college pitcher are two different things though, you can't disrupt a AA rotation with this 6 man 3IP thing.