Playoff Percentages

[waroriole]

We have a 18.3% chance of making the playoffs according to ESPN. I'll take it.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[McNulty]

Clay Davenport had us at 3% to make the playoffs coming into today.

http://claydavenport.com/stats/ps_oddspec.html

[Frobby]

BP says 2.4% (before today's game). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I think the main difference is that ESPN is solely looking at the probability that a team with the record of the Orioles against the teams they have played will make the playoffs, taking their future schedule into consideration. Davenport and BP are taking into account their original projections of how our players would do. BP used to run three different sets of odds, but now they are just running the one that takes PECOTA projections into account, it appears.

I recall that when the Orioles were 14 games over .500 in 2005, their playoff odds supposedly were 70%. So, you can't get too excited about these purely mathematical calculations that don't take things into account such as depth and longer-term past performance.

[waroriole]

BP says 2.4% (before today's game). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I think the main difference is that ESPN is solely looking at the probability that a team with the record of the Orioles against the teams they have played will make the playoffs, taking their future schedule into consideration. Davenport and BP are taking into account their original projections of how our players would do. BP used to run three different sets of odds, but now they are just running the one that takes PECOTA projections into account, it appears.

I recall that when the Orioles were 14 games over .500 in 2005, their playoff odds supposedly were 70%. So, you can't get too excited about these purely mathematical calculations that don't take things into account such as depth and longer-term past performance.

I don't think that's it. BOS has a 30% chance, and they're 4-8. The 6-6 MFY are at 64.5%.

[Frobby]

I don't think that's it. BOS has a 30% chance, and they're 4-8. The 6-6 MFY are at 64.5%.

Fair enough. I wonder why the discrepancy is so large?

[Arthorn]

I'll be happy when Boston's is below ours.

[sangar]

thespread.com has up to date numbers and monitors many Vegas lines. They had us open the season at 75/1 to make the series and we now stand at 100/1.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, Vegas thought us more likely to make a world series appearance before the season began than they do now.

[weams]

We have a 18.3% chance of making the playoffs according to ESPN. I'll take it.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

That is very close to a one in five chance. When was that last day that that was the case for the Baltimore Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

thespread.com has up to date numbers and monitors many Vegas lines. They had us open the season at 75/1 to make the series and we now stand at 100/1.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, Vegas thought us more likely to make a world series appearance before the season began than they do now.

You are misunderstanding it, maybe.

The line moved because the bettors moved it, not because Vegas sees something it doesn't like.

[Can_of_corn]

That is very close to a one in five chance. When was that last day that that was the case for the Baltimore Orioles.

Summer of 2005?

When they were 6-1 last season?

[ThisIsOurHouse]

ESPN uses coolstanding. I hope this makes things more clear on why it is so different from other sites.

A DIV of 50.0 means your team has a 50% chance of winning the division. A WC of 100.0 means you've got the wild card wrapped up. And a POFF of 0.0 means "wait till next year!"

How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers.

The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results. Pretty smart, huh? That's why we call this prediction mode "Smart mode".

[Floater]

I got them at 0 % currently. Depending on what I see over the next few years, it might change.

[sangar]

You are misunderstanding it, maybe.

The line moved because the bettors moved it, not because Vegas sees something it doesn't like.

Yeah, generally that's what I'm referring to when I say "Vegas." I dealt poker there for five years, but I was never really into betting. Except, of course, my annual bet on the Orioles to win it all.

It probably would have been more accurate to say "Vegas likes us better than the bettors", as the pros set the opening odds.

[srock]

Honestly, this math reeks of hokum.

[centralpaosfan]

1st place O's have an 18% chance but the last place Royals have a 20% chance.....go figure.