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Playoff Percentages

waroriole

By waroriole
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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O's chances according to ESPN is all the way up to 44.7

That is better then the MFY right now. Only the Rays have a higher percentage then us in the division.

In my mind, the O's chances are now up to 10-15%. Which is a lot better than the 1-2% chance I would have given them on Opening Day. It is still an extremely long season and in the end, if a team has major flaws, they will hurt the team eventually.

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Oriolidae85 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Oriolidae85

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Fair enough. The division is very close and if they believed on Opening Day that we had the lowest odds, then it makes sense that we still do. There's not enough of a gap to shift the odds significantly.

I believe that is part of the equation, especially earlier in the season. Right now, it appears to be driven by run differential and W/L. The White Sox have an 80% chance with a 1/2 game lead over the Indians (30%). The Sox have a +35 RD, while the Indians have minus 16.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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Our run differential is improving as well. With Niemann out and Hellickson struggling a bit, we profile similarly to the Rays right now IMO.

Yeah, I don't really take this percentage percentage stuff very seriously, especially with more than half the season still to be played. It's just a little fun, and a little interesting. :)

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