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Playoff Percentages

waroriole

By waroriole
in Orioles Talk

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Fiver Major Leaguer

Fiver

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We also overtook Oakland for the #1 WC spot, with them struggling v Detroit. IF we wind having to 'settle' for the WC, it would be huge to get that #1 instead of the 2, if for no other reason than to simply avoid the cross country flight on back to back days.

We are in good shape in a number of ways, but like Frobby, I'm still very nervous!!!

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Slappy Major Leaguer

Slappy

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Absolutely. The Angels and Rays are not having very good weeks. Right now we are in the playoffs with a 4.5 game lead over LA and 13 games left. That is a substantial advantage.

The O's have 13 games left. That makes their worst-case magic number for a playoff spot 9 - any combo of O's wins and Angels losses.

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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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Absolutely. The Angels and Rays are not having very good weeks. Right now we are in the playoffs with a 4.5 game lead over LA and 13 games left. That is a substantial advantage.

The O's have 13 games left. That makes their worst-case magic number for a playoff spot 9 - any combo of O's wins and Angels losses.

Wow. So that's what it comes down to. The O's could win five if they lose 4... and we're in. My head is swimming a little thinking about this.

So... looking at the playoff brackets, it would be very nice to win the division. With the extra game to decide the WC... and Texas looming... winning the division just got a lot more appealing. They need to win the division.

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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We have to win our share of games against relatively weak teams (Boston, Toronto) and we should be in. If we do win our share, it is possible to pass Oakland who has six with Texas and 3 with NYY for the first WC or contest the NYY for the division.

The main thing that scares me is that Anaheim plays six against the weak Mariners team we just swept. It would not surprise me if Anaheim finishes 9-4 or 10-3 in which case we would be in trouble if we finish 5-8 or something like that. If LAA or Tampa finishes the year 8-5 or 7-6, we would be in unless we finish 3-10 or so.

I think 90% is a pretty sound number given where we are and the schedule we have left. Unfortunately, we have been a team that has defied the odds all year - so, hopefully, we not defy these particular odds.

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Slappy Major Leaguer

Slappy

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We have to win our share of games against relatively weak teams (Boston, Toronto) and we should be in. If we do win our share, it is possible to pass Oakland who has six with Texas and 3 with NYY for the first WC or contest the NYY for the division.

The main thing that scares me is that Anaheim plays six against the weak Mariners team we just swept. It would not surprise me if Anaheim finishes 9-4 or 10-3 in which case we would be in trouble if we finish 5-8 or something like that. If LAA or Tampa finishes the year 8-5 or 7-6, we would be in unless we finish 3-10 or so.

I think 90% is a pretty sound number given where we are and the schedule we have left. Unfortunately, we have been a team that has defied the odds all year - so, hopefully, we not defy these particular odds.

Right, so it plays out like this (for us to secure a playoff spot)

Magic number to eliminate the Tigers: 7 (O's wins + Tigers losses)

Magic number to eliminate the Rays: 8

Magic number to eliminate the Angels: 9

Basically, we go 9-4, we're in regardless.

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