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Playoff Percentages

waroriole

By waroriole
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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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We have to win our share of games against relatively weak teams (Boston, Toronto) and we should be in. If we do win our share, it is possible to pass Oakland who has six with Texas and 3 with NYY for the first WC or contest the NYY for the division.

The main thing that scares me is that Anaheim plays six against the weak Mariners team we just swept. It would not surprise me if Anaheim finishes 9-4 or 10-3 in which case we would be in trouble if we finish 5-8 or something like that. If LAA or Tampa finishes the year 8-5 or 7-6, we would be in unless we finish 3-10 or so.

I think 90% is a pretty sound number given where we are and the schedule we have left. Unfortunately, we have been a team that has defied the odds all year - so, hopefully, we not defy these particular odds.

I think the Mariners could win some games. They have Felix, and they have some good talent. They also shows a TON of fight, hanging with the Orioles. Very tight games. Could have gone either way. My point: Anaheim might not walk over them. Oakland having that many games against Texas is a very good thing. Texas is a scary damn team.

The Yankees face the A's, too. Hopefully they'll lose, but after that... gulp. They face the Twins and Jays. Taking them for the division is going to be really hard, considering that lineup.

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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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Right, so it plays out like this (for us to secure a playoff spot)

Magic number to eliminate the Tigers: 7 (O's wins + Tigers losses)

Magic number to eliminate the Rays: 8

Magic number to eliminate the Angels: 9

Basically, we go 9-4, we're in regardless.

Is this presuming the A's are the other WC team?

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Dark Helmet Hangout Grand Counsel

Dark Helmet

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I think the Mariners could win some games. They have Felix, and they have some good talent. They also shows a TON of fight, hanging with the Orioles. Very tight games. Could have gone either way. My point: Anaheim might not walk over them. Oakland having that many games against Texas is a very good thing. Texas is a scary damn team.

The Yankees face the A's, too. Hopefully they'll lose, but after that... gulp. They face the Twins and Jays. Taking them for the division is going to be really hard, considering that lineup.

There's no easy wins. Hopefully, the Yankees overlook those two teams.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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Where was ESPN is June? or July? Or August? or two weeks ago? Far as I know they were predicting when the O's would fall apart.

At this point they are just stating the obvious. I would not exactly call it breaking news. They should probably just stick to articles on run differential. They are pretty good at that.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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We're five games up in the loss column with 13 to play. Think about that

Yes, I am sure that if you went through the history of baseball, 90% of the teams that had that big of a lead with only 13 games left made the playoffs. And, we have an easy schedule.

The problem is, 91.4% still isn't 100%. The odds of losing are just about the same as the odds of not rolling snake eyes with two dice (91.7%). Snake eyes happens just often enough to scare you,and seems a pretty apt analogy here.

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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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Where was ESPN is June? or July? Or August? or two weeks ago? Far as I know they were predicting when the O's would fall apart.

At this point they are just stating the obvious. I would not exactly call it breaking news. They should probably just stick to articles on run differential. They are pretty good at that.

Well stated. I noticed that that run differential is just -10 now. Also, that seems like a pretty meaningless stat in many ways, unless you're talking about a particular game, of course.

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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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Yes, I am sure that if you went through the history of baseball, 90% of the teams that had that big of a lead with only 13 games left made the playoffs. And, we have an easy schedule.

The problem is, 91.4% still isn't 100%. The odds of losing are just about the same as the odds of not rolling snake eyes with two dice (91.7%). Snake eyes happens just often enough to scare you,and seems a pretty apt analogy here.

Dem's good odds. Maybe a more salient question would be, what is our chance of winning the division?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Dem's good odds. Maybe a more salient question would be, what is our chance of winning the division?

Clearly, less than 50/50, since New York has a one-game lead on us and has the slightly easier schedule from here. But let's see where things stand after this weekend. The one tough Series the Yankees have is this one with Oakland. The odds could shift in our favor if we gain 2+ games this weekend. If we gain 1 game or less, I think the odds favor New York pretty heavily at that point.

BP says our odds of winning the division are only 22.6%, and the wild card 66.3%, for a total of 88.9% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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