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Playoff Percentages

waroriole

By waroriole
in Orioles Talk

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Not to jinx us, but I'm just curious if anyone remembers the odds we had to make the postseason in 2005 before our collapse. Drungo posted it once and I remember it was sort of shocking.

I think they were at 70-80% when they were something like 41-27 and 3 games up on the division. IIRC. Aren't too many teams in history a half game out of first the week after the all star break, and end up 14 games under .500 amid collapse and scandal and disaster.

Now, last September 1st both the Braves and Red Sox had roughly 98-99% playoff odds. And I'd imagine the '64 Phils had near 100% odds when they were 6.5 up on September 20th, then lost 10 straight.

Where was ESPN is June? or July? Or August? or two weeks ago? Far as I know they were predicting when the O's would fall apart.

At this point they are just stating the obvious. I would not exactly call it breaking news. They should probably just stick to articles on run differential. They are pretty good at that.

They were where everyone else was - in reality. If you really believed they were playoff shoo-ins in June or July, when the O's were slumping and the pitching was in disarray, and they were 10 games back of the Yanks, you were certifiably crazy. If you don't think this season has been at the far tail of the distribution curve I don't know what to tell you.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Well stated. I noticed that that run differential is just -10 now. Also, that seems like a pretty meaningless stat in many ways, unless you're talking about a particular game, of course.

I don't want to rehash the thousands of posts we've already had on the subject, but run differential is meaningless if by meaningless you mean imperfect. When 80 or 90% of teams are within 5 games of their Pythag I'd say it's a pretty fair indicator.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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Clearly, less than 50/50, since New York has a one-game lead on us and has the slightly easier schedule from here. But let's see where things stand after this weekend. The one tough Series the Yankees have is this one with Oakland. The odds could shift in our favor if we gain 2+ games this weekend. If we gain 1 game or less, I think the odds favor New York pretty heavily at that point.

BP says our odds of winning the division are only 22.6%, and the wild card 66.3%, for a total of 88.9% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I agree that the Yanks are in the drivers seat as long as they are ahead of the O's. But the Yanks schedule is harder than the O's because of the Oakland vs Yanks series. The O's will play teams from here forward that are probably eliminated by the time they play them. And that includes the Rays. Meanwhile Oakland is driving for home field advantage in the wild card.

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Bradysburns All-Star

Bradysburns

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I don't want to rehash the thousands of posts we've already had on the subject, but run differential is meaningless if by meaningless you mean imperfect. When 80 or 90% of teams are within 5 games of their Pythag I'd say it's a pretty fair indicator.

Maybe imperfect is a better term. It's not totally meaningless... I just react against the constant harping we heard for a long stretch about how the Orioles didn't deserve their record, etc. (Feel free to ignore this b/c I don't want to hijack the thread here).

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luismatos4prez All-Star

luismatos4prez

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I don't want to rehash the thousands of posts we've already had on the subject, but run differential is meaningless if by meaningless you mean imperfect. When 80 or 90% of teams are within 5 games of their Pythag I'd say it's a pretty fair indicator.

Fangraphs ran an article earlier this year proving that a team's actual winning percentage at any given time is about as accurate a predictor for the rest of the season as Pythagorean winning percentage.

The image is huge, so I'll just link to it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Capture3.png

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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One thing I hate right now is that the Yankees play one less game than the O's for the remainder of the season. This irks me to no end... anyone else?

Your wish is my command. After last night, the Skankees and O's have the same number of games the rest of the way.:thumbsup1:

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Easternshoreguy2 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Easternshoreguy2

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All Oriole fans are pumped about playoff talks etc. However, I am sure that if/once we make the playoffs and/or World Series it will be because we are lucky instead of a average to slightly above average team according to "experts" at least

Bring on the haters and let us prove them all wrong and here is to the 2012 team of destiny the Bucking Baltimore Orioles.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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I don't want to rehash the thousands of posts we've already had on the subject, but run differential is meaningless if by meaningless you mean imperfect. When 80 or 90% of teams are within 5 games of their Pythag I'd say it's a pretty fair indicator.

Well 100% of the teams are within 0 games of their win percentage. ;)

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