BoA Mock Draft v1.0, Callis has the O's picking Kyle Zimmer

[LookinUp]

I think he's just saying you want to compare starters to starters, and using WAR data is one way to tease that out. Mariano Rivera has a career fWAR of 39.4, whereas Roger Clemens' is like 145. Meanwhile, their career WHIP is 1.00 to 1.17.

They tell a different story.

[Mizerooskie]

I think he's just saying you want to compare starters to starters, and using WAR data is one way to tease that out. Mariano Rivera has a career fWAR of 39.4, whereas Roger Clemens' is like 145. Meanwhile, their career WHIP is 1.00 to 1.17.

They tell a different story.

I only used starters. No relievers.

I also prefer objective statistics to subjective metrics.

Edit: I should note that I only used qualified starters. So all of them had at least 162 innings.

[Stotle]

I only used starters. No relievers.

I also prefer objective statistics to subjective metrics.

Edit: I should note that I only used qualified starters. So all of them had at least 162 innings.

You also set arbitrary height groupings.

Here are fWAR leaders for pitchers, 2009-2011:

Halladay 6-6

Verlander 6-5

Lee 6-3

Sabathia 6-7

Hernandez 6-3

Grienke 6-2

Lincecum 5-11

Haren 6-5

Jiminez 6-4

Lester 6-4

Kershaw 6-3

Weaver 6-7

Carpenter 6-6

Johnson 6-7

Wilson 6-1

Floyd 6-6

Cain 6-3

Hamels 6-3

Wainwright 6-7

Jackson 6-3

Beckett 6-5

Buerhle 6-2

Shields 6-4

Gallardo 6-2

Danks 6-2

Taillon 6-6

Bundy 6-1

Just based on height, which would you say fits better on this list? There are six pitchers within an inch of Bundy's height (as tall as 6-2). There are 10 pitchers within an inch of Taillon's height (6-5 or taller). So 40% of the top 25 starting pitchers over the last three years are 6-5 or taller. About 24% are 6-2 or shorter from my looks at Bundy fairly up close, he was 6-0 tops, though I see he is listed at 6-1. Perhaps he's grown.

Additionally, this is looking solely at the players that have made it to the bigs and stayed starters, eliminating the durability questions that smaller pitchers generally face.

[Mizerooskie]

I didn't set arbitrary height groupings. I set height groupings based on Bundy and Taillon.

But anyway, my question goes unanswered. Is there any empirical evidence Taillon's body type is more successful?

[BobDylanBundy]

Additionally, this is looking solely at the players that have made it to the bigs and stayed starters, eliminating the durability questions that smaller pitchers generally face.

Bingo, that's the key here. A comparison of elite Major League talent doesn't capture all of the smaller pitchers who needed to be converted to relievers or got hurt trying to handle a starter's workload. Smaller pitchers are at a disadvantage. The C.J. Wilsons and Roy Oswalts of the world certainly prove it's possible to transcend those disadvantages. But if Dylan Bundy could magically grow to 6'5'', 215 lbs., that'd definitely be preferred to his current size.

Scouting and subjective metrics are really the basis of projecting amateur talent because that's all we have. I'd love to see a list of the top high school talent in the country based on only objective analysis, good luck with that.

[eb45]

Not really sure where you're coming from with the bolded. Machado looks like he'll develop into an impact everyday Major League SS and is an extraordinary prospect to nab with a #3 pick. However, I think the O's would have definitely chosen Taillon if their 2010 pick was one spot higher, and I think they'd accept if the Pirates offered a straight up swap today.

I agree with you, but Machado is generally ranked higher on prospect lists (BA had him 11 and Taillon 15), which I'm saying is more a flaw in the prospect hype system than anything against Taillon. I love Taillon and wish he'd been on the board for the Orioles.

[allstar1579]

Bingo, that's the key here. A comparison of elite Major League talent doesn't capture all of the smaller pitchers who needed to be converted to relievers or got hurt trying to handle a starter's workload. Smaller pitchers are at a disadvantage. The C.J. Wilsons and Roy Oswalts of the world certainly prove it's possible to transcend those disadvantages. But if Dylan Bundy could magically grow to 6'5'', 215 lbs., that'd definitely be preferred to his current size.

Scouting and subjective metrics are really the basis of projecting amateur talent because that's all we have. I'd love to see a list of the top high school talent in the country based on only objective analysis, good luck with that.

Hahaha, pleeeease don't tempt people.

[Stotle]

I didn't set arbitrary height groupings. I set height groupings based on Bundy and Taillon.

But anyway, my question goes unanswered. Is there any empirical evidence Taillon's body type is more successful?

No public study I am aware of. My org has a sliding scale that serves as guidelines for body types. The nationals, I believe, have more hardfast rules.

[tilgaham]

Great Modern Era Pitchers that are Bundy's height or shorter:

Tom Seaver

Nolan Ryan

Pedro Martinez

Tom Glavine

Bob Gibson

There were a few more. I left out Greg Maddux because of an almost complete dichotomy in style. All in all, the vast majority of pitchers on this list http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-all-time-best-pitchers/ were 6'3 or taller.

I would love if could be Nolan with a little less gas and a little more control.

A great related read: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1023164/1/index.htm

[Go_Os]

Larger body you tend to have mechanical issues (ability to repeat; body control). Shorter pitchers tend to have trouble with pitch plane, angles, and durability. I think you'd find (haven't looked it up) that the vast majority of the top MLB pitchers are between 6'2" and 6'5".

Also, top 40 starters in WHIP is kind of a weird breakdown. I'd imagine top 20 in fWAR/rWAR or something along those lines would make more sense. After all, we are focusing on front-enders.

Then why were you so high on Sonny Gray last year?

[Stotle]

Then why were you so high on Sonny Gray last year?

Back to back years throwing in competitive games February through July without losing velocity or quality of stuff. Looked as good or better than Gerrit Cole each summer.

[oriolekid]

Back to back years throwing in competitive games February through July without losing velocity or quality of stuff. Looked as good or better than Gerrit Cole each summer.

That and the absolutely filthy curve ball.

[Stotle]

That and the absolutely filthy curve ball.

Pure stuff really isn't better than Bundy's, but he showed growth soph to junior, a front-end 1-2, and pitched strong back to back years for six months a piece (and then a strong junior year). Durability less of an issue, which to me was the difference in risk profile between the two.

2011

1. Rendon

2. Cole

3. Starling

4. Gray

5. Bundy

is where I ended up.

[seak05]

Shrug, I think maybe ideally you'd like a pitcher to be 6"4ish, but that we make to much of height. Through history there have been many great pitchers at Bundy's size. As long as he can get a good plane on his pitches (and from all scouting reports he does), I don't think it's much of an issue. He's not 5'8.

To me stuff, repeatability of delivery, command and control all, are the real issues.

[Stotle]

Shrug, I think maybe ideally you'd like a pitcher to be 6"4ish, but that we make to much of height. Through history there have been many great pitchers at Bundy's size. As long as he can get a good plane on his pitches (and from all scouting reports he does), I don't think it's much of an issue. He's not 5'8.

To me stuff, repeatability of delivery, command and control all, are the real issues.

Well, durability is probably the biggest pitfall for prep pitchers, as an often root cause of loss of stuff throughout a start, loss of stuff throughout a season, injury, loss of command, and inability to repeat mechanics. Bundy is as low-risk as you can get for a slightly undersized arm, in large part because of his physicality, but the general risk isn't simply removed because the rest of the package is sexy.