Have the Orioles hit their ceiling?

[Frobby]

OK how about some stats about 2005, I'm tired of this comparison. Look at the pitching in 2005.

Look at the starters: Bedard got hurt in late May and when he came back threw to a 5.44 ERA. Ponson had showed he wasn't going to return to 2003 form with a 4.94 ERA in June. Lopez was already turning in a 4.50 ERA. On June 11 Cabrera had a 5.88 ERA.

Think about that bullpen: Reed/Dubose/Grimsley gave us 80 innings of 5+ ERA on the year. Julio was good until June 7 for the remainder of the year he logged 40 innings at a 8.8 ERA level. That's 120 innings of something like a 6+ ERA. I don't think our fringe guys like O'Day/Ayala/Patton, assuming you match Strop/Johnson to Ray/Ryan (who they are outperforming anyway).

The pitching actually allowed more runs in the first half of the year 409, than the second 391. That offense scored 729 runs. We're on pace to score 726 this year and I think we can all agree without our corner OFs this lineup isn't hardly what it's capacity looks like.

This team has a lot of upside to fill out. No I don't know if we've righted the ship. But this team is already comparably better in pitching, and on par with hitting to the 2005 team. We are definitely not that team.

I don't believe that just because the 2005 team had a hot start and fell apart, the 2012 team is doomed to do so. At the same time, your review of the 2005 team is with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. There were many things that happened after June 14, 2005 that wouldn't have been anticipated on that day, and there easily could be things that will happen this year that we don't anticipate now. Hopefully, nothing as dramatic as Raffygate, but I am talking about injuries and/or strong early performances that don't continue. Let's say, for example, that Hammel goes on the DL due to his knee, Jones hits to a .750 OPS for the rest of the year, and the bullpen ERA goes from 2.40 so far to 3.50 for the rest of the year, and that we don't continue winning 80% of our extra-inning games. Is that a far-fetched scenario? I certainly don't think so. Obviously, I hope those things don't happen, but there's a pretty decent chance that some equivalent scenario unfolds. And then what is the team's record likely to be over the next 100 games?

Again, I am not saying something like this definitely will happen. But, we have to be wary that it could. We've seen scenarios like this happen many times in the last 14 years. Please don't make me recite the litany of times we had a respectable record in mid-August and then lost 65-80% of our games for the final 40 games or so. It's not like 2005 was the only time we had a sudden downturn. So, as a fan, you have to be aware that something like that could happen.

[flashjordnk]

Let's say, for example, that Hammel goes on the DL due to his knee, Jones hits to a .750 OPS for the rest of the year, and the bullpen ERA goes from 2.40 so far to 3.50 for the rest of the year, and that we don't continue winning 80% of our extra-inning games. Is that a far-fetched scenario? I certainly don't think so. Obviously, I hope those things don't happen, but there's a pretty decent chance that some equivalent scenario unfolds. And then what is the team's record likely to be over the next 100 games?

All very reasonable questions. I guess the question is why did we collapse like we did in 2005. I think 2005 carried a ton of unique qualities. Did you know we actually allowed less runs in the 2nd half of that season than the first? And that we scored 133 less runs in the second half of that year.

Let's say Jones drops off. Jones is creating about .66 runs per game right now according to FG. If you assume a drop in OPS of about 22% (950 to 750)....that drops it to .51 per game with 100 games left easy math. So we're talking about creating 15 less runs per game if Jones drops all the way to 750. Let's say the offense as a whole drops 22% of the first half...that'd drop us from 4.4 to 3.4 runs per game. With that 22% drop off for the whole team means that we'd drop 100 runs created over the next 100 games. Or only 81 over the second half. Think about how terrible the O's offense got...that they dropped from 431 to 298. That's 5.3 per game to 3.6. A drop of almost 2.7 per...or a 50% drop in offensive output. Your not willing to label that an outlier?

Let's say Hammel drops off...well Bedard did the essentially exact same thing. Went from a 2.08 ERA first half to a 5.44 ERA second half...and low and behold...the O's as a team allowed less runs in the second half.

Let's say the bullpen adds a full run per game to their ERA. Let's assume their pitch half the games from here on out or 4.5 innings. That's 100 games, that's 50 more runs. They are on pace to allow 715. So let's add 50 to that total...that's 765. That's still 35 less total runs than the O's allowed in 2005. And that's probably a generous in the number of innings they pitch. I just think 2005 second half was so bad off the charts that we don't realize how bad it was.

[waroriole]

I say you don't make excuses for losses and you don't make excuses for wins. 6 of 8, 3 straight series wins. In that period you've played a first place team (with the same record coming in as the Braves and Mets), and two teams that won over 90 games last year and were (and by many, still are) expected to contend this year.

You can also describe it as two last place teams, and a team that has a historically bad offense.

[Trackmaster]

I think that in the "worst case scenario" that year, we still would have finished around .500. That was something ungodly sent by the baseball gods, probably our punishment for trading for washed up Sosa and signing a roided up Raffy.

But that being said, I still believe that our team had a stronger and more promising start in 2005 than it does now. The other teams were down, we sustained the success for a while, we had two players elected by the fans to the All-Star team, and our record was slightly better. But we didn't have the excitement of a strong farm system, so that's something that's improved.

[OFFNY]

Oh hi there. I was the one that was told to "relax" earlier in this thread.

Hi. .

[Ampontan]

OK how about some stats about 2005, I'm tired of this comparison. Look at the pitching in 2005.

I don't think our fringe guys like O'Day/Ayala/Patton, assuming you match Strop/Johnson to Ray/Ryan (who they are outperforming anyway).

Sorry to be picky, because I thought this was an excellent post, but I'm not so sure I would call O'Day a fringe guy, or even Ayala, for that matter. They're getting in a lot of games.

[flashjordnk]

Sorry to be picky, because I thought this was an excellent post, but I'm not so sure I would call O'Day a fringe guy, or even Ayala, for that matter. They're getting in a lot of games.

Not fringe...I mean...the guys that are equivalent to Julio/Dubose/Reed/Grimsley in 2005. If you look, Ray and Ryan both had very good years. So it's not a stretch to say that we started blowing games in the second half because we were blowing saves. It's simply to say that I don't think Ayala/O'Day/Patton will regress to a 6+ ERA over 80 innings which is what we got in 2005.

[Frobby]

All very reasonable questions. I guess the question is why did we collapse like we did in 2005. I think 2005 carried a ton of unique qualities. Did you know we actually allowed less runs in the 2nd half of that season than the first? And that we scored 133 less runs in the second half of that year.

Let's say Jones drops off. Jones is creating about .66 runs per game right now according to FG. If you assume a drop in OPS of about 22% (950 to 750)....that drops it to .51 per game with 100 games left easy math. So we're talking about creating 15 less runs per game if Jones drops all the way to 750. Let's say the offense as a whole drops 22% of the first half...that'd drop us from 4.4 to 3.4 runs per game. With that 22% drop off for the whole team means that we'd drop 100 runs created over the next 100 games. Or only 81 over the second half. Think about how terrible the O's offense got...that they dropped from 431 to 298. That's 5.3 per game to 3.6. A drop of almost 2.7 per...or a 50% drop in offensive output. Your not willing to label that an outlier?

Let's say Hammel drops off...well Bedard did the essentially exact same thing. Went from a 2.08 ERA first half to a 5.44 ERA second half...and low and behold...the O's as a team allowed less runs in the second half.

Let's say the bullpen adds a full run per game to their ERA. Let's assume their pitch half the games from here on out or 4.5 innings. That's 100 games, that's 50 more runs. They are on pace to allow 715. So let's add 50 to that total...that's 765. That's still 35 less total runs than the O's allowed in 2005. And that's probably a generous in the number of innings they pitch. I just think 2005 second half was so bad off the charts that we don't realize how bad it was.

In real life, I think the pitching is going to decide what happens. If you look at things, our offense is about the same as last year. The team is 6th in runs scored per game, compared to 7th last year. We could end up a little higher or a little lower, but the bottom line is that we had a competitive if unspectacular offense last year, and we do again this year.

The difference, obviously, has been the pitching. The Orioles are 9th in runs allowed per game this year, whereas last year we were dead last and it wasn't close. Our bullpen is tops in the league in ERA, compared to 13th last year, and our starters are 11th, compared to dead last in 2011.

So, the bottom line is that if our pitching performance deteriorates, the team's performance will deteriorate. The offense is likely to stay about where it is. The pitching will decide whether this team falters, stays over .500, or contends.

[wildcard]

In real life, I think the pitching is going to decide what happens. If you look at things, our offense is about the same as last year. The team is 6th in runs scored per game, compared to 7th last year. We could end up a little higher or a little lower, but the bottom line is that we had a competitive if unspectacular offense last year, and we do again this year.

The difference, obviously, has been the pitching. The Orioles are 9th in runs allowed per game this year, whereas last year we were dead last and it wasn't close. Our bullpen is tops in the league in ERA, compared to 13th last year, and our starters are 11th, compared to dead last in 2011.

So, the bottom line is that if our pitching performance deteriorates, the team's performance will deteriorate. The offense is likely to stay about where it is. The pitching will decide whether this team falters, stays over .500, or contends.

The starters have already deteriorated if they are 11th out of 14.

[Frobby]

The starters have already deteriorated if they are 11th out of 14.

The starters' ERA, by month:

April -- 3.63

May -- 5.46

June -- 5.37 (11 games)

The O's have managed to go 22-17 in May and June despite the struggles of the starting pitchers, but I don't think that is sustainable. The starters will have to do better than that for the team's success to continue.

[OFFNY]

.

Time to break the ceiling, and get ourselves into the sky.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

.

Time to break the ceiling, and get ourselves into the sky.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

It's good to be back! Didn't think we'd make it back to 12 games over the rest of the year. DD deserves all the credit in the world for Chen and Hammel. They are ever reason why we are where we are. It just makes me wonder now what Wada would have been like if Chen has been this good? :scratchchinhmm:

Here's to two of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton (The Cavalry has not been a key to us turning it around, who would have thought?? Not I) giving us a solid 3 and 4.

This team is looking legit. I thought maybe we'd get to .500 this year, but now it doesn't seem unreasonable at all for us to grab one of those wild card spots.

[OFFNY]

It's good to be back! Didn't think we'd make it back to 12 games over the rest of the year. DD deserves all the credit in the world for Chen and Hammel. They are ever reason why we are where we are. It just makes me wonder now what Wada would have been like if Chen has been this good? :scratchchinhmm:

Here's to two of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton (The Cavalry has not been a key to us turning it around, who would have thought?? (Not I) giving us a solid 3 and 4.

This team is looking legit. I thought maybe we'd get to .500 this year, but now it doesn't seem unreasonable at all for us to grab one of those wild card spots.

Yep. The New York Mets are standing in our way tomorrow as we go for number 13.

[Slappy]

The starters' ERA, by month:

April -- 3.63

May -- 5.46

June -- 5.37 (11 games)

The O's have managed to go 22-17 in May and June despite the struggles of the starting pitchers, but I don't think that is sustainable. The starters will have to do better than that for the team's success to continue.

Take out the 2 duds by Matusz and Arrieta and June looks much better. It hasn't been consistently bad like May.

[Frobby]

It seems like the team has been hovering at 11-12 games over for about a week now. The bullpen has looked quite human in that stretch. I'm getting the feeling that this may be as good as it's going to get.

Bump.... This is the first time we've been 12 games over since June 17. A win tomorrow would match the season high of 13 games over (which was at 27-14). Let's crack that ceiling!