On the Record: Who do you want the O's to pick?

[LookinUp]

This is a public poll. For the purposes of this poll, I've removed Appel because it has been reported he's going #1. I've also removed Giolito and Zunino because it seems incredibly unlikely that we pick them. Feel free to vote for "other" for them if you want, and please specify. The choices are as follows:

1. Almora

2. Buxton

3. Correa

4. Gausman

5. Zimmer

6. Any of the above (no preference)

7. Other

Now hopefully the poll allows me those 7 options.

[Stotle]

1. Gausman

2. Almora

3. Correa

4. Appel

5. Buxton

[NCRaven]

1. Gausman

2. Almora

3. Correa

4. Appel

5. Buxton

I agree on Gausman (mostly due to your own analysis posted here!), then you can throw Almora, Buxton and Correa's names in a paper bag and pick them in any order and someone could make an argument for whatever order they come out. With Gausman it comes down to never having enough pitching. Look at our experience with the "Cavalry." Matusz seems to be getting himself straightened out, Arrieta is struggling mightily, Britton has been hurt and the should still scares me for his long-term success, Bergesen seems to have flamed out. Tillman is...what? Having Bundy and Gausman developing quickly through the system appeals to me greatly.

If you want to argue that we have a real shortage of high-ceiling hitters in the system, I can't fight you on that. But, it's not like we have a lot of great pitchers behind Bundy, either.

[paulcoates]

I agree on Gausman (mostly due to your own analysis posted here!), then you can throw Almora, Buxton and Correa's names in a paper bag and pick them in any order and someone could make an argument for whatever order they come out. With Gausman it comes down to never having enough pitching. Look at our experience with the "Cavalry." Matusz seems to be getting himself straightened out, Arrieta is struggling mightily, Britton has been hurt and the should still scares me for his long-term success, Bergesen seems to have flamed out. Tillman is...what? Having Bundy and Gausman developing quickly through the system appeals to me greatly.

If you want to argue that we have a real shortage of high-ceiling hitters in the system, I can't fight you on that. But, it's not like we have a lot of great pitchers behind Bundy, either.

I agree with you. While I am sure that at least 1 of these guys won't end up justifying their draft position, I think the most important position for us to draft year in and out will always be Pitcher. I hope we take Gausman

[NCRaven]

I hope he's still there at #4. If he is, we'll have a pretty interesting decision to make there.

[BobDylanBundy]

I think Gausman goes 2nd to Minnesota, and this poll is not necessarily representative because a lot of the people who voted Gausman would vote for Zimmer (currently 0 votes) if KG was unavailable.

[Araqnid]

I think Gausman goes 2nd to Minnesota, and this poll is not necessarily representative because a lot of the people who voted Gausman would vote for Zimmer (currently 0 votes) if KG was unavailable.

I actually would not. I think there is a pretty big drop-off from Guasman to Zimmer.

I ranked them:

1) Gausman

2) Buxton

3) Correa

4) Almora

I absolutely would be ecstatic with any of those four. I didn't put Appel (who I would probably rank below Gausman) because it seems like he's the only one of the group that you can definitively say at this point will be off the board by the time the Orioles select.

[RVAbird]

I would be happy with any of those names under the right circumstances, but my preference would be one of Gausman/Correa. Gun to head, I'll go with Gausman for a variety of not necessarily talent related reasons.

[coe76]

I vote Other (Giolito)

[LookinUp]

I've wavered throughout this process for obvious reasons. Giolito was my #1 guy originally. He has great upside, moreso than anyone in the draft aside from Buxton possibly. Then you see the injury and read what Stotle writes about his development program (building up physicality, mechanics, signability and refining stuff) and it just raises enough uncertainity (e.g., lowers probability) for me to be willing to pass given the other talent available.

Correa is intriguing to say the least. I have a very hard time passing on a guy who could be the next Beltre/Longoria. He will add defensive value at 3B almost no matter what, as long as his bat plays at the ML level. With any development of an already impressive bat, he looks like a high WAR guy for many years to come. I will smile very wide if we end up with him. I shouldn't do this, but I know we have Delmonico, Schoop and Esposito in the minors, and any of the three could theoretically end up playing 3B for us. I really hope Delmonico is that guy, but he's not getting innings there right now.

Buxton and Almora could both turn into Adam Jones +. Buxton figures to provide more value away from hitting than Jones provides (stolen bases, defense). Almora also seems like he'll be a better defender than Jones. We have Jones, Markakis, Avery, Hoes and not much else in the outfield in terms of prospects. By the time either of these guys are ready, we're liable to need 3 outfielders, so need isn't a concern for me here. However, development probabilities and expected time does hurt these two in my eyes. I love the idea of both, but do I really want to wait until 2015 for them to show up on the scene, and then watch them go through ML growing pains? I'll be excited as heck if we end up with either of these guys at #4.

Zimmer might end up the best pitcher in this draft, but with stuff fluctuating from inning to inning and with the injury, I just don't see the rock solid guy I want at #4 yet. If we pick him, we could hit big, or I feel like we could bust pretty big too. I just need to see an arm with some miles, considering the huge mileage he'll be asked to shoulder in the future. This is the only guy on my list that I really dont want even though I know he may end up the best of them all.

So the pick is Gausman. His stuff is pretty filthy into the latter innings. He's performed against the top competition. Prototypical body type suggests he's somewhat less likely to have injury or downward plane issues. He's advanced, so he'll probably step right in at Bundy's level. When evaluators say things like "this is the type of guy who wins you a World Series," I can't help but think of the Beckett's, Schillings and Garza's who overwhelm good lineups when it matters. Gausman seems to have that potential.

I look at the O's early season success this year and I note it was driven by pitching. I look at Tampa's success year after year and it's driven by pitching. With a rotation something like Bundy, Gausman, Britton, Hammel and Matusz, I think the O's could hang with just about any team in the majors moving forward. We'd still need positional talent, but one pick wasn't going to fix all of our deficiencies either way.

So, my final order is something like this:

1. Gausman

2. Correa

3-4. Buxton - Almora, in some order. Buxton's upside REALLY intrigues me.

5. Zimmer

[jets4ever]

I agree with you. While I am sure that at least 1 of these guys won't end up justifying their draft position, I think the most important position for us to draft year in and out will always be Pitcher. I hope we take Gausman

My thoughts, exactly.

[Rene88]

I preface this by saying I am going off what many of you have said and posted. As long as we don't pick some suprise guy that was projected at like 10-12, I will be fine.

1. Correa

2. Gausman

3. Appel (he is off the board)

4. Buxton (worried about development, but upside seems to be HUGE and I have heard the O's really like him)

[Rick_Schu]

Gausman, I hope he is there. A couple seasons at LSU make him a fairly known quantity. Experienced, but still pretty young. Seems like the lowest risk, and soonest to be in the bigs. I'll be a little bummed if he goes 2 or 3.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

1. Buxton: Upside intrigues me, yes it is a major risk but I feel our organization is up to the challenge; I only want to pick him if management feels he has that 6th tool.

2. Gausman: I think this will end up being our pick; we need to load up our pitching prospects

3. Correa

[Dain45]

1. gausman

1. Almora

3. Correa

4. giolito

5.Buxton

6.Appel

7. Fried