Has Hobgood retired?

[melankfo]

I assume former number one pick Mat Hobgood has retired from baseball? I don't find him listed on any minor league roster. Last year the O's dropped him down to Aberdeen to see if he could be successful there, and he put up an ERA of 10.46 and batting average against of .360 I believe. Surely one of the O's worst number one picks ever, though there's a lot of competition for that distinction.

[glenn__davis]

He's hurt. I believe he had shoulder surgery, I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong on that. Still in the system, we'll see how he recovers.

Seems like he's pretty much been injured from day 1.

[weams]

He's hurt. I believe he had shoulder surgery, I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong on that. Still in the system, we'll see how he recovers.

Seems like he's pretty much been injured from day 1.

He is not retired. HE is rehabbing his extensive shoulder capsule surgery. You are correct. He is not assigned to a team.

[Flash- bd]

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-03-23/sports/bal-baltimore-orioles-prospect-matt-hobgood-expected-to-miss-all-of-2012-season-20120323_1_shoulder-specialist-shoulder-surgery-cuff

What do people put the chances of Hobgood coming back and retaining some of the initial promise that made us draft him? Of being able to throw at least in the low 90s. He was high 80s most of the time as an Oriole prospect, but it certainly seemed he was never actually right. So assuming he's truly "right" when he comes back, what is the best case scenario for him, taking into account the likely affects of shoulder surgery? (I know shoulder surgery is generally much more difficult to come back from than TJ, but I do believe it's not as damning as it once was, correct?)

[OFFNY]

Has Hobgood retired?

Sorry, I can't resist this .......... You have to have a career in the first place in order to "retire" from it. :laughlol:

Seriously though, I hope that Hobgood does recover from his injuries and eventually make it all the way to the majors for the Orioles.

[glenn__davis]

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-03-23/sports/bal-baltimore-orioles-prospect-matt-hobgood-expected-to-miss-all-of-2012-season-20120323_1_shoulder-specialist-shoulder-surgery-cuff

What do people put the chances of Hobgood coming back and retaining some of the initial promise that made us draft him? Of being able to throw at least in the low 90s. He was high 80s most of the time as an Oriole prospect, but it certainly seemed he was never actually right. So assuming he's truly "right" when he comes back, what is the best case scenario for him, taking into account the likely affects of shoulder surgery? (I know shoulder surgery is generally much more difficult to come back from than TJ, but I do believe it's not as damning as it once was, correct?)

Obviously this is just my opinion and conjecture...

I'd put the odds of him recovering well enough to restore some sort of prospect status at about 20%.

I'd put the odds of him honing those skills well enough to reach the major leagues at some point at about 5%.

But that is based off of very little information.

I like Hobgood the person and feel like he always got a bad rap. But he never showed the tools that made Jordan draft him that high.

[Araqnid]

Obviously this is just my opinion and conjecture...

I'd put the odds of him recovering well enough to restore some sort of prospect status at about 20%.

I'd put the odds of him honing those skills well enough to reach the major leagues at some point at about 5%.

But that is based off of very little information.

I like Hobgood the person and feel like he always got a bad rap. But he never showed the tools that made Jordan draft him that high.

I really think he'll turn up 5-7 years from now in another uniform, give a team a few ok years, maybe even a pretty decent year in there, and then make his way out of baseball. I'm not giving up on him as a baseball player, but I think soon enough, as an Oriole.

[Flash- bd]

Obviously this is just my opinion and conjecture...

I'd put the odds of him recovering well enough to restore some sort of prospect status at about 20%.

I'd put the odds of him honing those skills well enough to reach the major leagues at some point at about 5%.

But that is based off of very little information.

I like Hobgood the person and feel like he always got a bad rap. But he never showed the tools that made Jordan draft him that high.

Yeah, your odds seem about right to me. Agree on the tools point as well, he was probably a #3 if everything went right for him, and that's a pretty low upside for a HS pitcher that's relatively raw and has all the risks attendant to a HS pitcher (and apparently more, it could be argued).

I'm more interested in the first statistic though, which we agree is somewhere around 20%. I guess my question, put most simply is this: in the best case scenario, what kind of prospect status could Hobgood reclaim? Could he be as good as, say (remember, best case scenario), Bobby Bundy (ie 10-15 prospect in system), or is there a feasible scenario where he reaches David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta levels? (ie, 4-8 prospect in the system)

EDIT: (and I mean strictly best case scenario here...I think we'd all agree that if Hobgood were to come back and be listed at some point as a top 10-15 prospect in our system, as Bobby Bundy is, we'd consider it a rather spectacular result. My question is it even in the realm of possibility that the latter outcome--4-8 prospect in the system--transpire?)

[scOtt]

He is not retired. HE is rehabbing his extensive shoulder capsule surgery. You are correct. He is not assigned to a team.

In other words... he had a disjointed professional career... got injured... had the WORST INJURY known to pitchers...........

Tried surgery. Worst case successful anything.... so now he is still with the team? And like lottery-hopeful of ever being anything that he might have ever been?

Good luck, Matt!

[varugby]

I think he will end up going the way of Adam Loewen and play a little offense.

[luismatos4prez]

Per his twitter, he's going to start throwing again in August.

He's already reached Billy Rowell status in my mind. Let him try his hand at hitting.

[OFFNY]

I really think he'll turn up 5-7 years from now in another uniform, give a team a few ok years, maybe even a pretty decent year in there, and then make his way out of baseball. I'm not giving up on him as a baseball player, but I think soon enough, as an Oriole.

I'm not so sure about this part. We certainly gave my beloved Billy Rowell plenty of time to try to break through. I don't see why Hobgood shouldn't get at least the same chance. We've already spent the bonus money on him, so we may as well let him work his way through Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk, in 2013, 2014, and beyond and see how he pans out.

[Araqnid]

I'm not so sure about this part. We certainly gave my beloved Billy Rowell plenty of time to try to break through. I don't see why Hobgood shouldn't get at least the same chance. We've already spent the bonus money on him, so we may as well let him work his way through Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk, in 2013, 2014, and beyond and see how he pans out.

I am 100% on board with him proving me wrong. Unlike Rowell, he does seem like he has a decent head on his shoulders, and I'd love for him to put it together for us - I just think he will take more time than the Orioles will likely end up giving him.

The only way I think he proves me wrong here is if he starts throwing later this summer, is looking good, and begins a rather steady ascent through the minors starting next year - it's very possible, but who knows at this point?

[scOtt]

Per his twitter, he's going to start throwing again in August.

He's already reached Billy Rowell status in my mind. Let him try his hand at hitting.

Sadly this is spot on in my book. Hobgood is a non-entity in my book. Much like Rowell.

[OFFNY]

I am 100% on board with him proving me wrong. Unlike Rowell, he does seem like he has a decent head on his shoulders, and I'd love for him to put it together for us - I just think he will take more time than the Orioles will likely end up giving him.

The only way I think he proves me wrong here is if he starts throwing later this summer, is looking good, and begins a rather steady ascent through the minors starting next year - it's very possible, but who knows at this point?

Actually, Hobgood would prove you right if he makes it to the majors with any team ...... the Orioles or otherwise. The odds are that he won't ever make it to the majors right now, and you said that you think he would.