Jump to content

Tillman ready for promotion; but has to wait


wildcard

Recommended Posts

The question is how long do you let the "trend" continue. In 7 starts beginning on May 5, Tillman has a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP; meanwhile, in 9 starts dating back to April 21 Arreita has an ERA of 6.70 and a WHIP of 1.51.

Also, let's not forget that the O's have another rotation spot open right now, that was vacated by Hunter. Tillman being called up doesn't necessarily mean Arrieta gets sent down.

I like Jake, he is a talented pitcher, but some people seem overly mesmerized by the fact that he can get his fastball up to 96 mph at times and can have the occasional dazzling start. The fact is, he has not pitched well, which is why he is 2-7 on a team that is 8 games over .500. He needs to get his act together soon or he will force the O's hand.

100% accurate.

He's looking more and more like a candidate for closer to me, quite frankly. Great stuff for 3-5 innings then just completely loses it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply
100% accurate.

He's looking more and more like a candidate for closer to me, quite frankly. Great stuff for 3-5 innings then just completely loses it.

I look at it differently. I think he needs to tweak some things to improve his approach the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Because he's worth a lot more to this team as a 6-7 inning starter with a 3.50 ERA than a one-inning reliever with a 2.50. Teams are neck-deep in random arms that can spit out a good 60 innings. But there just aren't as many 180-200 inning 110 ERA+ guys.

Challenge the guys with talent to do better, don't just throw up your hands and send them off to be 1-WAR setup guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I look at it differently. I think he needs to tweak some things to improve his approach the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Because he's worth a lot more to this team as a 6-7 inning starter with a 3.50 ERA than a one-inning reliever with a 2.50. Teams are neck-deep in random arms that can spit out a good 60 innings. But there just aren't as many 180-200 inning 110 ERA+ guys.

Challenge the guys with talent to do better, don't just throw up your hands and send them off to be 1-WAR setup guys.

Great post!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The question is how long do you let the "trend" continue. In 7 starts beginning on May 5, Tillman has a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP; meanwhile, in 9 starts dating back to April 21 Arreita has an ERA of 6.70 and a WHIP of 1.51.

Also, let's not forget that the O's have another rotation spot open right now, that was vacated by Hunter. Tillman being called up doesn't necessarily mean Arrieta gets sent down.

I like Jake, he is a talented pitcher, but some people seem overly mesmerized by the fact that he can get his fastball up to 96 mph at times and can have the occasional dazzling start. The fact is, he has not pitched well, which is why he is 2-7 on a team that is 8 games over .500. He needs to get his act together soon or he will force the O's hand.

I don't see "luck" having anything significant to do with Jake's struggles. His command comes and goes, and he doesn't pitch well from the stretch. That's got nothing to do with luck.

I'm not a Jake apologist, I posted this two weeks back:

Long term I think Jake will always be rather inconsistent. People talking about him having ace/#2 potential I think are wearing rose-colored glasses. He doesn't induce GBs well enough to be a dominant GB pitcher, he doesn't strike people out enough to be a power pitcher, and he doesn't have good enough control to be a real pitcher's pitcher.

That, to me, is evident in today's performance: you saw, how against a team like the Red Sox, arguably his biggest problem was putting hitters away. The difference between Matusz and Jake today and yesterday is Matusz was able to put hitters away with 2 strikes, whereas Jake doesn't necessarily have the repertoire to consistently keep hitters off-balance with 2 strikes.

Jake, to me, is a valuable starter-- he can be a #4 on a good team, with upside of a #3. This year I would not be surprised to see him with an ERA under 4.50. But there's little that suggests that he will ever be the TOR starter that I think some are still holding out hope he can be. Frankly, I'm not sure where that idea entered people's heads--look at his ML/MiL track record, there's nothing that suggests TOR starter. Even in his 11 starts at 1.85 ERA at age 24 in Norfolk, take a look at the peripherals...chances are the ERA would've risen over a bigger sample size.

As for you not seeing where "luck" plays a factor, well, I'm not quite sure how to argue that, but I definitely disagree. I get the idea that he seems to break down in the 5th/6th inning but if he had better luck a lot of these breakdowns would've been mitigated/not have happened at all; often, it seems to me, fluke hits, bad defense, and other events vaguely describable as "lucky" seem to conspire against him.

Aside from that anecdotal evidence, the stats certainly back that theory up.

EDIT:

The question is how long do you let the "trend" continue. In 7 starts beginning on May 5, Tillman has a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP; meanwhile, in 9 starts dating back to April 21 Arreita has an ERA of 6.70 and a WHIP of 1.51.

To answer your question, I (theoretically) let it continue a while longer before I'm convinced. Jake's FIP and xFIP respectively are 3.99 and 3.72. His WAR is 1.1.

As you and I both pointed out, Tillman can take Hunter's spot. As I also said, that to me is more of a question between Britton and Tillman, Hunter is obviously an inferior option to them both. I just don't think Arrieta/Tillman is much of a debate right now, Arrieta needs to do a lot more "bad" and Tillman a lot more "good" before I think it's the right idea to replace one with the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as Arrieta's peripherals are similar to Tillman's in AAA, there's no way in hell I'm bumping him from the rotation. If he gives up 5 runs in 4 innings on Friday due to some sketchy fielding and some well-placed hits my attitude will remain the exact same. You'd think we'd have learned our lesson with Matusz and all the people saying he should go down to AAA earlier in the season.

Let me ask you guys this: what do you see in Tillman that gives you any idea that he would perform better than Arrieta--given he had the same luck as Arrieta (in other words, all things equal)?

Arrieta has better MiL numbers, arguably better stuff, similar pitchability/control, and as I just put forth above, similar peripherals right now as the guy you want to replace him with who just happens to be a level lower (and the biggest level lower there is, ie, no jump is bigger than that from AAA-MLB).

Tillman's MiL BABIP this year @ Norfolk has been .339 - Arrieta's is @ .299.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I look at it differently. I think he needs to tweak some things to improve his approach the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Because he's worth a lot more to this team as a 6-7 inning starter with a 3.50 ERA than a one-inning reliever with a 2.50. Teams are neck-deep in random arms that can spit out a good 60 innings. But there just aren't as many 180-200 inning 110 ERA+ guys.

Challenge the guys with talent to do better, don't just throw up your hands and send them off to be 1-WAR setup guys.

I don't disagree... but is he capable of it? That's where I'm starting to have doubts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as Arrieta's peripherals are similar to Tillman's in AAA, there's no way in hell I'm bumping him from the rotation. If he gives up 5 runs in 4 innings on Friday due to some sketchy fielding and some well-placed hits my attitude will remain the exact same. You'd think we'd have learned our lesson with Matusz and all the people saying he should go down to AAA earlier in the season.

I was one of the posters defending Matusz when people were calling for him to be sent down, as I believed he was getting better each start and just needed some breaks to go his way. But that was three bad starts at the beginning of the season. Arrieta has now been bad for 7 of his last 9 starts, and it's June. And I'm just not seeing the "sketchy fielding and well-placed hits" excuse.

Jake's last start is demonstrative of his problems. First, he throws three perfect innings and looks dominant doing it. But he allows a run the next inning that is set up by a walk and a wild pitch -- that's on him. The next inning he walks three guys and allows a double down the line -- that's on him. You can look at his "peripherals" for that game and say he didn't pitch that poorly -- after all, he only allowed 2 hits in 4.2 IP and he had a WHIP of 1.28 for the game. But the truth is, he made his own problems. Admittedly, Jones made a throwing error that allowed a runner who was tagging up and going to 3B with one out to score, but there's a good chance that runner is going to score later that inning anyway.

Despite this critique, I am in favor of giving Jake this next start and seeing how he does. But if he gets knocked out early and continues to have the same problems he has had lately, I won't be unhappy if the O's send him down and try something else for a while so Jake can sort things out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't disagree... but is he capable of it? That's where I'm starting to have doubts.

I don't know, but there's a really long list of pitchers who had talent but couldn't put it together until one day they were awesome. Yes, there's an even longer list of guys who never put it together, but I have a lot more rope I'd give Arrieta to try. Not that he necessarily has this kind of talent, but guys like JR Richard or Sandy Koufax probably drove multiple pitching coaches and countless thousands of fans to drink before they blew the league away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tillman is such a hot/cold guy start to start.

Either he dominates or gets lit up with baserunners and crooked numbers.

As a starter, he seems like a guy whom would yield a 2.50 ERA (with good peripherals) in his wins and 8.00 ERA (with a 2.0 WHIP) in his losses.

We've all been hoping for consistency, and showing more of the former than the latter. But maybe that is a futile effort with Tillman...he will always be frustrating from consistency standpoint.

Doesn't that guy scream bullpen? Bring him in, if he's off...yank him immediately. If he's on....let him go 2-3 innings at a time. Kind of like an Arthur Rhodes circa 1996-1998. We kept waiting for Arthur to "put it all together" as a starter, but like Tillman until now, he didn't show the start to start consistency to eat innings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was one of the posters defending Matusz when people were calling for him to be sent down, as I believed he was getting better each start and just needed some breaks to go his way. But that was three bad starts at the beginning of the season. Arrieta has now been bad for 7 of his last 9 starts, and it's June. And I'm just not seeing the "sketchy fielding and well-placed hits" excuse.

Jake's last start is demonstrative of his problems. First, he throws three perfect innings and looks dominant doing it. But he allows a run the next inning that is set up by a walk and a wild pitch -- that's on him. The next inning he walks three guys and allows a double down the line -- that's on him. You can look at his "peripherals" for that game and say he didn't pitch that poorly -- after all, he only allowed 2 hits in 4.2 IP and he had a WHIP of 1.28 for the game. But the truth is, he made his own problems. Admittedly, Jones made a throwing error that allowed a runner who was tagging up and going to 3B with one out to score, but there's a good chance that runner is going to score later that inning anyway.

Despite this critique, I am in favor of giving Jake this next start and seeing how he does. But if he gets knocked out early and continues to have the same problems he has had lately, I won't be unhappy if the O's send him down and try something else for a while so Jake can sort things out.

These kind of what-if arguments can get problematic fast, but FWIW: I don't recall the wild pitch, but to say unequivocally "that's on him" misses the point a bit. Yes, wild pitches are charged to the pitcher, but that doesn't change the fact that maybe he throws that same pitch ten times and the catcher blocks it probably five. There's an element of luck in that. The Jones throwing error can very easily be said to have cost him a run: the next two hitters grounded out and popped out.

The next inning, BJ Upton's double was a grounder that glanced off the glove of a diving Tolleson. The next batter struck out. If Tolleson blocks that ball only one run scores. If Upton hits that ball 2 feet to the right, it's straight at Tolleson, and he likely turns a DP to end the inning.

Before this, with 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd Jose Molina grounded into a force out. I don't remember the play, but given Molina's speed (lack thereof) perhaps Tolleson would've been better served trying to step on 3rd and throw to 1st for the DP?

Again, I readily admit these arguments have their flaws, but I think you get my point: there's certainly some-a good deal of luck involved, even in the case you are bringing up as the kind of paradigm case of Jake's struggles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I look at it differently. I think he needs to tweak some things to improve his approach the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Because he's worth a lot more to this team as a 6-7 inning starter with a 3.50 ERA than a one-inning reliever with a 2.50. Teams are neck-deep in random arms that can spit out a good 60 innings. But there just aren't as many 180-200 inning 110 ERA+ guys.

Challenge the guys with talent to do better, don't just throw up your hands and send them off to be 1-WAR setup guys.

I totally agree with this. Nice post. Quality starters are hard to find. The O's should hang with the pichers they think can become good starter like Jake. Just because Jake gets sent down to work on improving some of his skills does not mean the move is permanent. AAA may just be a better place for him to work out his problems with hurting the O's and come back strong to help them later.

I am a long way from giving up on Jake as a starter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As many are aware, I've been a big Tillman supporter for years, and I've been patient. I'm not rushing to see him on the MLB roster, though, and perfectly accept the argument that it can't hurt to see him repeat his positive performance for a couple of more starts.

I do, however, think it's useless to cite his statistics for the year as an argument for keeping him down. I can guarantee the Orioles won't be looking at that. Tillman is Exhibit A for Rick Peterson, and the fact is that some early inconsistency w/ results should have been expected. If they like what they see with how he's throwing, those inconsistent results won't matter.

Also, if you want to truly have an opinion on what to do with Tillman, watch him pitch. At a minimum, his 8 inning start is on MiLB TV. If you haven't seen what he looks like this year (sitting 93-95 late in the game), then you're not really talking about the version of Tillman that matters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People are talking about Tillman's "dominance" in his last three games. And while collectively the numbers are good... and collectively the numbers in the last 7-8 games are good too, he isn't "dominating" either in all three.

May 26: 6 IP. 2 ER. 5 hits. 3 BBs. 6 Ks: Solid performance.... but certainly not special.

May 31: 8 IP. 0 ER. 1 hit. 1 BB. 9 Ks: Yes, this is dominant.

June 6: 6.2 IP. 2 ER. 1 hit. 1 BB. 7 Ks: Certainly a very good performance as well. But he did give up a HR too.

The last two starts are encouraging. The one on May 26 was also solid. But we're not exactly talking about a long stretch of dominance. We're talking about a TINY sample size. Now, if he can put another 4 or 5 starts together, we can talk call up.

Arrieta is struggling and in a perfect world, we would be able to send him down and work out the kinks. But other than a couple great performances, what is Tillman showing to show that he can be the guy to replace Arrieta? And SOMEONE has to replace Arrieta should we send him down. Certainly, Tillman shouldn't be that guy yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, I readily admit these arguments have their flaws, but I think you get my point...

Enormous ones. It's just one long ex-post rationalization. I don't think Arrieta's been unlucky, myself. But that doesn't mean that he's far off from being successful. His peripherals don't necessarily show that he deserves better results, but they do show that he has nearly everything he needs to be successful at the MLB level. Of course, while he doesn't appear far off...when he falls apart, he looks miles away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...