Callis on the Orioles' draft

[Frobby]

http://www.wbal.com/article/90904/6/template-orioles/Baseball-America-Editor-Jim-Callis-Grades-The-Orioles-Draft

- Development of Gausman's slider will determine if he is a good choice at no. 4 or not.

- Mentions that Bundy is "probably the best prospect in baseball."

- Kline could be a no. 3 starter if all works out, or could be set-up guy or closer. Needs more consistency.

- Walker not really a power hitter, but likes the way he can hit.

- Ripken not ready for pro ball.

- Lex Rutledge, Matt Price and Torsten Boss all good picks.

Pretty sold draft according to Callis. He wasn't doing cartwheels, but liked what the Orioles did.

[lovetoaster]

That's pretty much where I am too. I don't know as much about some of these kids as some here, but I feel pretty good about this draft. I feel better about this one that I have about most in recent memory. I think we made some very good picks, and assuming the majority of them sign, they could be some very nice pieces for the future.

He is on the money about Kline. If he could be more consistent, that could be a heck of a pick.

[LookinUp]

I'm really hoping Gausman and Kline sign far enough under slot to allow us to sign a couple of the 11+ round guys for overslot dollars. Our success there will go a long way toward determining the relative upside of this draft.

[DrOrioles90210]

I'm really hoping Gausman and Kline sign far enough under slot to allow us to sign a couple of the 11+ round guys for overslot dollars. Our success there will go a long way toward determining the relative upside of this draft.

I hope this too. It doesn't look like Rajsich and Duquette used the same draft strategy as the Jays, Sox, Rangers, and other well run teams, drafting 10K signing bonus guys for the second half of the top 10 to free up money for upside. I'm curious if they considered this at all. I can't imagine that it didn't occur to them.

[Lucky Jim]

http://www.wbal.com/article/90904/6/template-orioles/Baseball-America-Editor-Jim-Callis-Grades-The-Orioles-Draft

- Development of Gausman's slider will determine if he is a good choice at no. 4 or not.

- Mentions that Bundy is "probably the best prospect in baseball."

- Kline could be a no. 3 starter if all works out, or could be set-up guy or closer. Needs more consistency.

- Walker not really a power hitter, but likes the way he can hit.

- Ripken not ready for pro ball.

- Lex Rutledge, Matt Price and Torsten Boss all good picks.

Pretty sold draft according to Callis. He wasn't doing cartwheels, but liked what the Orioles did.

As far as I can tell, pretty much everyone available at No. 4 had some flaws. Unless we were allowed to trade the pick away and somehow neglected to do it, I'm pretty sure that Callis' statement could have been made about anyone.

[jcarm]

I hope this too. It doesn't look like Rajsich and Duquette used the same draft strategy as the Jays, Sox, Rangers, and other well run teams, drafting 10K signing bonus guys for the second half of the top 10 to free up money for upside. I'm curious if they considered this at all. I can't imagine that it didn't occur to them.

They have signed their 10th round pick Joel Hutter for 10K. This saves $115K to sign other players with. Players at the top of the draft do seem to be signing for under slot-so they may save some money with Gausman as well. Buxton signed for $6 Million-even that is $200K under slot.

[DrOrioles90210]

They have signed their 10th round pick Joel Hutter for 10K. This saves $115K to sign other players with. Players at the top of the draft do seem to be signing for under slot-so they may save some money with Gausman as well. Buxton signed for $6 Million-even that is $200K under slot.

The Red Sox signed three guys for under 10K so far and I think the Jays and Rangers drafted like 6 or 7 college seniors in the first 10 rounds for that purpose alone. One underslot guy with the 10th pick isn't the same.

[jcarm]

The Red Sox signed three guys for under 10K so far and I think the Jays and Rangers drafted like 6 or 7 college seniors in the first 10 rounds for that purpose alone. One underslot guy with the 10th pick isn't the same.

You do realize that the Jays, Rangers and Red Sox were basically punting those picks right? It does seem apparent that Duquette was aware of being able to do this-and elected to not do so as much as other teams did. I believe it is sometimes smart to not go with what everyone else is doing-it sometimes creates opportunities. We will see which strategy works better. I do have to say that I tend to favor going after higher potential impact players-which is what the Red Sox, Jays and Rangers apparently did. They sacrificed quantity for quality.

[DrOrioles90210]

You do realize that the Jays, Rangers and Red Sox were basically punting those picks right?

Yeah, I got that. They gave up drafting players worthy of being drafted in those rounds, players that have little chance of being big league contributors, to sign one or two more high upside guys that had talent worthy of being picked on day 1 of the draft. I'd gladly give up the guys the orioles drafted with their 4th through 10th picks to sign one more day 1 talent.

[jcarm]

Yeah, I got that. They gave up drafting players worthy of being drafted in those rounds, players that have little chance of being big league contributors, to sign one or two more high upside guys that had talent worthy of being picked on day 1 of the draft. I'd gladly give up the guys the orioles drafted with their 4th through 10th picks to sign one more day 1 talent.

One thing I do have to point out to you is slot amount for the top pick of each of the 4 teams that we are discussing here:

Baltimore-$4,200,000

Boston-$1,750,000

Toronto-$2,000,000

Texas-$1,625,000

Granted, Boston, Toronto and Texas all have a greater number of high picks due to free agent compensation-but that $4,200,000 slot for Gausman can give the Orioles a huge advantage if they can get Gausman to sign for under slot(which has been what the top picks have been signing for so far). If the Orioles can sign Gausman for $3,500,000(which is really not that unreasonable to expect given that this is a pretty weak year regarding the talent in the draft)-that gives them an extra $700K to spend elswhere. For the other teams to get that much slot space-it eats up most if not all of the amounts that they got from the cheap senior signs. For the Orioles to be able to sign any of their over slot targets from the 11th round on-it will be crucial to get Gausman signed for under slot.

[DrOrioles90210]

One thing I do have to point out to you is slot amount for the top pick of each of the 4 teams that we are discussing here:

Baltimore-$4,200,000

Boston-$1,750,000

Toronto-$2,000,000

Texas-$1,625,000

Granted, Boston, Toronto and Texas all have a greater number of high picks due to free agent compensation-but that $4,200,000 slot for Gausman can give the Orioles a huge advantage if they can get Gausman to sign for under slot(which has been what the top picks have been signing for so far). If the Orioles can sign Gausman for $3,500,000(which is really not that unreasonable to expect given that this is a pretty weak year regarding the talent in the draft)-that gives them an extra $700K to spend elswhere. For the other teams to get that much slot space-it eats up most if not all of the amounts that they got from the cheap senior signs. For the Orioles to be able to sign any of their over slot targets from the 11th round on-it will be crucial to get Gausman signed for under slot.

True, signing Gausman underslot could net the O's more than it would for those teams, but that doesn't mean that the O's couldn't also punt their 5th through 10th picks and get a better haul with their 2nd and 3rd picks or overslot guys after the 10th.

[Can_of_corn]

True, signing Gausman underslot could net the O's more than it would for those teams, but that doesn't mean that the O's couldn't also punt their 5th through 10th picks and get a better haul with their 2nd and 3rd picks or overslot guys after the 10th.

Just take a look at the 2009 Orioles draft. There is a lot more risk with picks of this nature. Folks like to bandy around "first round talent" or "day one talent" there are reasons why these kids dropped and it isn't always as simple as a strong college commitment.

[jcarm]

Just take a look at the 2009 Orioles draft. There is a lot more risk with picks of this nature. Folks like to bandy around "first round talent" or "day one talent" there are reasons why these kids dropped and it isn't always as simple as a strong college commitment.

You do have a good point here. I do think that teams can take smart, calculated risks, though. With hindsight being 20/20-it looks like the Orioles just weren't very smart with some of their overslot picks/signings from 2009. The best example is Cameron Coffey. He was a guy who was not really a prospect-or at least someone who would be allowed to go to college-who had a sudden spike in velocity and injures his arm shortly thereafter. This, to me, screams that the spike in velocity was a fluke and was not sustainable. The Orioles gambled otherwise and appear to have lost. 2009 is really looking like an absolutely horrible draft year for the Orioles.

[Stotle]

Just take a look at the 2009 Orioles draft. There is a lot more risk with picks of this nature. Folks like to bandy around "first round talent" or "day one talent" there are reasons why these kids dropped and it isn't always as simple as a strong college commitment.

I think 2009 O's draft class is an extreme example of grabbing "overslot" guys. Especially considering the guys the O's paid weren't really Day 1 talents, regardless of health/college commitments.

[DrOrioles90210]

Just take a look at the 2009 Orioles draft. There is a lot more risk with picks of this nature. Folks like to bandy around "first round talent" or "day one talent" there are reasons why these kids dropped and it isn't always as simple as a strong college commitment.

In many cases it is. Look at all of the draft picks in the 6th through 10th rounds ever. What small percentage of those picks ever work out? The chance any pick works out is small, but I'd rather have the guy who most scouts see as a first rounder with some reason that knocks him out of that round than 5 guys who belong being drafted in the 6th through 10th rounds.