Would you take Jeremy Guthrie back?

[Lucky Jim]

If the humid air in OPACY is thinner, then why wouldn't he have just as much difficulty throwing his curve here as in COL?

Because it's not as thin as in COL?

In light of the above discussion, we can expect two main effects. First, pitched baseballs will be a little bit quicker in Coors than at Fenway. Since a baseball loses 10% of its speed in Fenway, the average speed is about 95% of its peak speed. At Coors, the baseball loses only 8% of its speed, so that the average speed is about 96% of its peak speed, or about 1 mph faster. This effect is quite small and batters can easily adjust to it. Far more important is the reduction in the Magnus force, resulting is less break on the pitched ball. If we take 18 inches as a typical break at Fenway due to the Magnus force, an identically thrown pitch will break only about 82% as much--or about 14-15 inches--at Coors. For example, an overhand curveball will drop about 4 inches less at Coors. An overhand fastball will drop about 4 inches more at Coors. Why "more"? Because the upward Magnus force opposing gravity is less at Coors. A ball thrown with pure sidespin will have a sideways break about 4 inches less at Coors. Generally speaking, less break or movement favors the batter.

http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/Denver.html

[Lucky Jim]

The higher the alt. the less dense the air. = Colorado dry, thin, less dense air.

Humidity will decrease the density of the air = OPACY on a hot/humid night.

I can see the relation there, if you want to be a nit and think I was comparing the air to be the same, go ahead but my point is right (less dense air does have an impact on how baseballs travel) and Guthrie is known to give up the long ball.

I don't think the "relation" is the issue, it's the equivalence. The elevated humidity may have some effect, but it's not as substantial as the effect of the altitude. Perhaps, as well, though we seem to assume incredible humidity for Baltimore, it's probably not all that different from most other places:

July Humidity:

Daily 	City 	Morning 	Afternoon74 	Atlanta, Georgia 	89 	5865 	Austin, Texas 	        88 	4469 	Baltimore, Maryland 	84 	5374 	Birmingham, Alabama 	88 	5768 	Boston, Mass. 	        80 	5868 	Buffalo, New York 	83 	5472 	Charlotte, N Carolina 	86 	5569 	Chicago, Illinois 	82 	5472 	Cincinnati, Ohio 	86 	5570 	Cleveland, Ohio 	85 	5671 	Columbus, Ohio 	        86 	5460 	Dallas, Texas 	        81 	4248 	Denver, Colorado 	68 	3469 	Detroit, Michigan 	85 	5268 	Hartford, Connecticut 	86 	5174 	Houston, Texas 	        93 	5573 	Indianapolis, Indiana 	88 	5678 	Jacksonville, Florida 	91 	6467 	Kansas City, Missouri 	84 	5121 	Las Vegas, Nevada 	29 	1577 	Los Angeles, Cal. 	86 	6871 	Louisville, Kentucky 	85 	5569 	Memphis, Tennessee 	84 	5475 	Miami, Florida 	        86 	6672 	Milwaukee, Wisconsin 	82 	6065 	Minneapolis, Minnesota 	80 	50

[El Gordo]

Because it's not as thin as in COL?

http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/Denver.html

You tell me? You're the guy with all the answers. The ball flies out of OPACY when it's hot and humid. Less air resistance? The ball breaks less well in OPACY when it's hot and humid? What is the relative difference between air density in COL in August, and the air density in OPACY in August? How does temeperature effect the equation?

[CA-ORIOLE]

The higher the alt. the less dense the air. = Colorado dry, thin, less dense air.

Humidity will decrease the density of the air = OPACY on a hot/humid night.

I can see the relation there, if you want to be a nit and think I was comparing the air to be the same, go ahead but my point is right (less dense air does have an impact on how baseballs travel) and Guthrie is known to give up the long ball.

That sounds right. That said, from what I've read about Coors, much of the problem correlates more to what LJ said about the difficulty of the pitchers to get good action/sink on their pitches at Coors than how far the ball travels. Since you seem to know what you're talking about, and it's been 26 years since I had a physics class, does that make sense given the differences between OPACY (or other parks) and Coors?

[Spy Fox]

If the humid air in OPACY is thinner, then why wouldn't he have just as much difficulty throwing his curve here as in COL?

80% humidity difference makes only about 1% decrease in air density.

The altitude difference between Denver and Baltimore makes an 18% decrease in air density.

Altitude is a much bigger factor.

(I didn't just happen to know this, I was curious and plugged in a couple values here: http://www.denysschen.com/catalogue/density.aspx)

[El Gordo]

80% humidity difference makes only about 1% decrease in air density.

The altitude difference between Denver and Baltimore makes an 18% decrease in air density.

Altitude is a much bigger factor.

(I didn't just happen to know this, I was curious and plugged in a couple values here: http://www.denysschen.com/catalogue/density.aspx)

I understand but my question is, we see a market difference in the way the ball carries in OPACY in August, but we never hear about curveballs hanging more, Shouldn't the effect be about the same?

[Lucky Jim]

You tell me? You're the guy with all the answers. The ball flies out of OPACY when it's hot and humid. Less air resistance? The ball breaks less well in OPACY when it's hot and humid? What is the relative difference between air density in COL in August, and the air density in OPACY in August? How does temeperature effect the equation?

Does the ball fly out that much more when it's hot-and-humid? I'm just trying to answer the question based on what I've read/am reading.

Again, you can't talk about any of this w/o establishing some baseline of humidity that separates Baltimore from either Colorado or anywhere else.

If we use averages of 75 degrees and 65% humidity, at Baltimore's elevation (of 480), then the density is .072 lbm/ft cubed.

If we use averages of 63 degrees and 35% humidity, at Denver's elevation (of 5280), then the density is .062 lbm/ft cubed.

So, factoring humidity into the equation, we get 86% density as opposed to 82% density. Humidity might create a tightly-banded spectrum of density-induced effects, but it's not going to come close to touching upon the gulf that Colorado's elevation creates.

[DrungoHazewood]

I understand but my question is, we see a market difference in the way the ball carries in OPACY in August, but we never hear about curveballs hanging more, Shouldn't the effect be about the same?

No! Because as Spy Fox showed us the difference due to humidity is dwarfed by the difference due to altitude. I'm making up numbers here, but it's something like a very humid day in Baltimore is the equivalent of a dry day at 500 feet or maybe 1000 feet. Not 5280 feet. If your curveball breaks 4 inches less in Denver (compared to a normal day at sea level) it might break 0.4 inches less on a humid Baltimore day.

[Lucky Jim]

No! Because as Spy Fox showed us the difference due to humidity is dwarfed by the difference due to altitude. I'm making up numbers here, but it's something like a very humid day in Baltimore is the equivalent of a dry day at 500 feet or maybe 1000 feet. Not 5280 feet. If your curveball breaks 4 inches less in Denver (compared to a normal day at sea level) it might break 0.4 inches less on a humid Baltimore day.

I think I covered you:

Does the ball fly out that much more when it's hot-and-humid? I'm just trying to answer the question based on what I've read/am reading.

Again, you can't talk about any of this w/o establishing some baseline of humidity that separates Baltimore from either Colorado or anywhere else.

If we use averages of 75 degrees and 65% humidity, at Baltimore's elevation (of 480), then the density is .072 lbm/ft cubed.

If we use averages of 63 degrees and 35% humidity, at Denver's elevation (of 5280), then the density is .062 lbm/ft cubed.

So, factoring humidity into the equation, we get 86% density as opposed to 82% density. Humidity might create a tightly-banded spectrum of density-induced effects, but it's not going to come close to touching upon the gulf that Colorado's elevation creates.

Far more important is the reduction in the Magnus force, resulting is less break on the pitched ball. If we take 18 inches as a typical break at Fenway due to the Magnus force, an identically thrown pitch will break only about 82% as much--or about 14-15 inches--at Coors.

In our case, substitute 86% for 82%. So, that 18 inch break would be 15.5 inches instead.

[Mayor McCheese]

Can someone forward this to Guthrie, This might help him.. NASA seemed to figure out the whole "curveball situation":

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/btraj.html

[CA-ORIOLE]

Can someone forward this to Guthrie, This might help him.. NASA seemed to figure out the whole "curveball situation":

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/btraj.html

Yep there it is:

The altitude effect helps to explain the high batting averages and poor earned run averages for the Colorado Rockies who play 81 games a year at a high altitude ball park. It is much harder to throw a curve ball at Coors Field than at Dodger Stadium.

[section18]

Toronto interested in dealing for Guthrie.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-06-18/trade-rumors-jeremy-guthrie-pitcher-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies

[CA-ORIOLE]

Toronto interested in dealing for Guthrie.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-06-18/trade-rumors-jeremy-guthrie-pitcher-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies

So the Jays will take Guthrie and want a prospect from COL, and in return they will consider taking on most of Guthrie's contract. Ouch.

Good thing we didn't hold on to Guthrie.

[GoldGlove21]

I think that Guthrie was comfortable in Baltimore, but he was unhappy about his contract situation. We deal the guy to the Rockies for a haul that makes it look like a terrible trade for the Rockies due to his inability to pitch well at all.

So we have Guthrie who may feel slighted by the O's and that is followed up not only by Guthrie not getting his big contract, but his suddenly decreased value. The Rockies are practically offering to give him away. Would I take Guthrie back? Sure, we could use him. Would Guthrie want to come back and pitch well for the Orioles? Maybe not. Guthrie is expensive to be so bad and I would be willing to roll the dice on the guy, but not if he doesn't feel comfortable coming back home or if he doesn't have the desire to help the team win.

[GoldGlove21]

So the Jays will take Guthrie and want a prospect from COL, and in return they will consider taking on most of Guthrie's contract. Ouch.

Good thing we didn't hold on to Guthrie.

No kidding!

On a side note, the Rockies are beat up. The disabled list for them includes:

Jhoulys Chacin

Jorge De La Rosa

Juan Nicasio

Ramon Hernandez

Hector Gomez

Troy Tulowitzski

Jonathan Herrera

Now given, they are only on the 15-day DL, but losing 3/5's of your starting rotation, you starting catcher and All Star shortstop (among others) is not a good thing. Not that it is going to matter a ton when you are 15 games under .500 in late June.