Gausman Signing Bonus - Parameters

[Can_of_corn]

Gausman signing may take a while

http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=2727

Only a couple weeks to the deadline, even if it takes to the last minute he can still get in the 30 or so innings he should add this season.

I disagree with BDY, I wouldn't go higher then 4 million as an absolute top. Gausman has more to lose then the O's do and the top of the draft are pretty much all signing below slot deals. He has a bit more leverage then most college players since he is a sophomore but that will make him an old junior next season.

[paulcoates]

Hopefully, we get no 15, Derick Velazquez signed, he will be overslot.

Unless Gausman signs for under $4MM, I can't see it.

[GoldGlove21]

I thought that one of the draws to Gausman was that we could get him signed pretty quickly at a decent slot? While watching him pitch his stuff looked just ok to me. The more that I think about things the more I wish the Orioles would have drafted Zimmer.

[Can_of_corn]

I thought that one of the draws to Gausman was that we could get him signed pretty quickly at a decent slot? While watching him pitch his stuff looked just ok to me. The more that I think about things the more I wish the Orioles would have drafted Zimmer.

Word was that Gausman's camp had reached out to Houston and was willing to sign for under slot. Other then that I had not heard that he would be an easy sign, just not as hard a sign as Appel or Giolito.

[Araqnid]

Is there anything that would indicate that #5 next year would likely be a better player than #4 this year? I guess, does the 2013 draft project to be stronger than the 2012 draft?

[hoosiers]

To update some data points in the original post, the picks before and after Gausman signed for $1.7M under-slot or an average of $850k. If the Os were to save a similar amount with Gausman, then the signing bonus would be about $3.35M - which is very close to the $3.4M Bauer signing bonus last year that was part of a major league deal. IMO, Bauer is a pretty good comp for what Gausman should receive.

I am going to throw out some general numbers here, but if the Os want to avoid paying the oversign tax and need an additional $400k to sign Velasquez and another $250k to sign Poche, then we are looking at a signing bonus in the $3.6M area.

IMO, based on all these early first rounders signing for less than slot, it would be surprising if Gausman's bonus was not also below slot. I still think the parameters are between approx $3.4M and $4.0M. The higher number would free up the $ to sign Poche - presumably - the lower number should enable the Os to sign both Poche and Velasquez. (I hate to hedge on the numbers, but if the Os asked for Gausman to sign for a slot savings number closer to Zunino, then a number like $3.25M or so comes into play.) A number in the middle might call for Poche and/or Velasquez to give a bit on their numbers.

Of course, though we have not heard, we don't know if there are others after the 10th round holding out for $ as well - which obviously would impact the above.

I will stick with the $3.7M in the original analysis, but have a feeling that may be too high. We'll see.

[paulcoates]

I don't buy into this line of reasoning. You are comparing apples to oranges, especially since Bauer signed a ML contract and Gausman can't. Cot's has Bauer's numbers as this:

Trevor Bauer rhp

4 years/$4.45M (2011-14)

4 years/$4.45M (2011-14)

signed Major League contract 7/25/11

$3.4M signing bonus

11:$50,000, 12:$333,333, 13:$333,333, 14:$333,334

salaries in majors: 11:$0.414M, 12:$0.6M, 13:$1.325M, 14:$1.575M

drafted by Arizona 2011 (1-3) (UCLA)

agent: Wasserman Media Group

ML service: 0.000

With the Bonus that looks like 7.8M gauranteed through the year 2014. Since Bauer just got called up and probably won't be arb eligible until 2015, he probably would make about 2M or so in ML salary if he hadn't signed the ML deal. Of course, even if he hurt his arm he was guaranteed the 7.8M so I don't see how the 3.4M can be used as a comp. It's bogus. I have no idea what Gausman will sign for but it seems like he's holding out for the full slot of 4.2M. Of course, the O's can offer 3M 3.5M or whatever and see if he blinks. Maybe they are sticking to 3.5M and will compromise around 3.8M at the 11nth hour. No idea.

Are there no more major league deals in the new draft rules?

[Can_of_corn]

Are there no more major league deals in the new draft rules?

That is correct.

[Trackmaster]

If we only have $4.5 mil, and Gausman's slot alone is $4.2 mil, wouldn't we be at risk of getting a penalty if we punt his pick to next year and lose his slot amount? Anybody know what our #5 guy's slot number is?

[DrOrioles90210]

From Jim Callis per Twitter:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

Nothing new. Might be most problematic team to deal with, but he'll sign. @c_dively_25: anything new on #orioles signing gausman? #mlbdraft

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

Peter Angelos. @shosheak: Why are #Orioles most problematic team to deal with?

[baltfan]

I call BS on the blaming Angelo's for Gausman. They will not pay over slot and based on all the other deals around him, they have the right to believe they can get him for less than slot. That's just good negotiation.

[Trackmaster]

You'd have to think that we have all the leverage too. Players don't go much higher than #4 overall. If he comes back next year, his stock will probably fall even more because he'd have signability issues. He could even get injured in college, and never play a day as a pro. So by not signing, he's putting off being a millionaire by a year, and risking all of the money that's on the table. For us, we're getting back practically the same pick next year in a deeper draft. Gausman doesn't exactly set the world on fire if anybody saw him play at all in the NCAA play-offs..

[DrOrioles90210]

I call BS on the blaming Angelo's for Gausman. They will not pay over slot and based on all the other deals around him, they have the right to believe they can get him for less than slot. That's just good negotiation.

If he's even asking for more than slot, the Orioles should have known about that pre-draft and they should have selected someone else. It just doesn't seem like their draft had any kind of strategy other then "let's find guys who will sign at slot." That's not what the smart teams did, and it's how those teams will end up getting more talent out of the draft despite Baltimore's huge spending cap advantage.

[xian4]

A trivial article regarding KG giving up doughnuts, it is dated July 5th and, at least shows that he is planning to play professional baseball.

He is giving up his four doughnuts per inning diet, as he knows it won't be tolerated in the minors.

http://www.9news.com/sports/article/276197/262/Former-Grandview-star-kicks-the-habit

[baltfan]

A trivial article regarding KG giving up doughnuts, it is dated July 5th and, at least shows that he is planning to play professional baseball.

He is giving up his four doughnuts per inning diet, as he knows it won't be tolerated in the minors.

http://www.9news.com/sports/article/276197/262/Former-Grandview-star-kicks-the-habit

At least he is thinking the right way. Would be nice to get it done now, so we can work on others.