Gonna take alot to get Chase Headley

[BhamBird]

the value being the #1 prospect in baseball.

How many games is he gonna win vs. the Yankees this season? THAT is his value right now. Or, more generally, how many wins is he worth this season. Win now, while you can, and worry about next year (or more likely 2014) tomorrow. This team needs a good run, and a playoff berth to bring attention and fans and free agents back. The Royals have a team LOADED with superstar prospects, and they continue to lose and get snakebit with injuries. Roll the dice.

[Ampontan]

I would flip Bundy (along with the other names most frequently being thrown around)

I would too, if it were Bobby Bundy.

[Ampontan]

The only two guys who are untouchable for the Orioles currently are Machado and Bundy.

Why is Machado untouchable and Schoop not? I ask because it has been reported on the minor league part of this board that some in the Orioles organization think Schoop has as much upside as Machado.

Whether he does or not, I am not qualified to say, but I assume those reports came from people who were qualified to say.

[DrungoHazewood]

How many games is he gonna win vs. the Yankees this season? THAT is his value right now. Or, more generally, how many wins is he worth this season. Win now, while you can, and worry about next year (or more likely 2014) tomorrow. This team needs a good run, and a playoff berth to bring attention and fans and free agents back. The Royals have a team LOADED with superstar prospects, and they continue to lose and get snakebit with injuries. Roll the dice.

You're willing to deal the #1 prospect in baseball, someone who could well be worth 20, 30+ wins over the six years the O's have him, could be the first true ace the O's have had since Mussina, for bumping up the O's 2012 chances at making the playoffs? That just doesn't make any sense. I'd trade Schoop, Avery, Tillman, and the entire roster of the Delmarva Shorebirds before I even thought about dealing Bundy. Someone would have to offer a current MVP candidate under team control at below-market prices for 3-4 years before I'd even think about it.

Doing the back-of-the-napkin math... Headley is 3-ish win player, under team control for another 2 1/2 seasons, at roughly $10M total. That's 7-8 wins. Bundy could be anything, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if he was worth 4-5 wins a season, with the possibility for more. So let's just say a very reasonable, conservative development would be 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4 wins per year as an Oriole, for a total of 22 wins. So, even if Bundy doesn't become a superstar, trading him for Headley would likely result in the O's being down 15 wins over 6 years. Is that kind of trade worth a small-to-moderate increase in the 2012 O's playoff odds?

[Orioles0615]

How many games is he gonna win vs. the Yankees this season? THAT is his value right now. Or, more generally, how many wins is he worth this season. Win now, while you can, and worry about next year (or more likely 2014) tomorrow. This team needs a good run, and a playoff berth to bring attention and fans and free agents back. The Royals have a team LOADED with superstar prospects, and they continue to lose and get snakebit with injuries. Roll the dice.

This is not how you build a successful franchise.

[BhamBird]

It's not a zero sum game. You are talking as though there will never be any free agents, and the farm system will shut down if Bundy is traded. Five years from now? Come on. Bundy COULD be the next Mussina. Or the next Ben McDonald or Gregg Olson. How many homegrown aces have WS rings with their original team? Lincecum/Cain, Hamels (although not that team's ace), Buerhle (I guess), Beckett...Pettitte? Glavine? Starting pitching is acquired through free agency.

That IS the model for building a successful franchise. Get a few homegrown position players (Wieters, Markakis, Matusz and Arrieta and Britton hopefully), add a few pieces (Hardy, Reynolds I suppose, most of the bullpen) and then make your mark in FA and with a healthy farm system in order to parlay PROSPECTS into ML-ready contributors. The Yankees do it that way. The Phillies did it that way. The Rangers have done it that way. The Braves did it that way. The Cardinals do it that way.

I love Bundy. Love his potential and his early numbers. But right now, that's all they are.

[whynot38]

I love Bundy. Love his potential and his early numbers. But right now, that's all they are.

Maybe but with Bundy's trade potential where it is right now, theres no way I'm trading Bundy for anything less then a superstar. I'll take McCutchen, I'd take Ellsbury when he's healthy, Carlos Gonzalez - sure. But not a Headley or someone that is, lets say, solid.

[SteveA]

Before we spend an entire day arguing back and forth over whether Bundy should be included in a deal -- isn't it a moot point? I thought there was some kind of rule that you couldn't trade a guy until a year after he was signed, which would mean we couldn't trade Bundy until August, which is after the non-waiver trade deadline.

[FTR, I do agree with those who say Bundy should be pretty much untouchable].

[weams]

Before we spend an entire day arguing back and forth over whether Bundy should be included in a deal -- isn't it a moot point? I thought there was some kind of rule that you couldn't trade a guy until a year after he was signed, which would mean we couldn't trade Bundy until August, which is after the non-waiver trade deadline.

[FTR, I do agree with those who say Bundy should be pretty much untouchable].

This is not the year to trade Dylan Bundy. In my humble opinion. TINSTAAPP, but there would be no industry expert who would agree with the trading of Bundy. Too much upside.

[BhamBird]

SteveA, I think it is one year from when the player is drafted, not signed. So, Bundy has been the O's since early June 2011.

[DrungoHazewood]

Starting pitching is acquired through free agency.

Some of it is. A lot of it isn't. The Rays have had a dominant rotation for years and pretty much never acquire a high-ticket free agent. Essentially all of their top-shelf rotation is home grown.

That IS the model for building a successful franchise. Get a few homegrown position players (Wieters, Markakis, Matusz and Arrieta and Britton hopefully), add a few pieces (Hardy, Reynolds I suppose, most of the bullpen) and then make your mark in FA and with a healthy farm system in order to parlay PROSPECTS into ML-ready contributors. The Yankees do it that way. The Phillies did it that way. The Rangers have done it that way. The Braves did it that way. The Cardinals do it that way.

I love Bundy. Love his potential and his early numbers. But right now, that's all they are.

There is no one model. And even if there was it wouldn't include often/usually/always trading one of the very best prospects in the game when they're in the mid-level minors. In fact, if you made a list of the very best pitchers in baseball I think you'd see that almost none of them were traded before their MLB debut. Top 10 in rWAR from 2008-2012, and nine of them stayed with their drafting organization for many years: Halladay, Sabathia, Verlander, Greinke, Felix, Lester, Lincecum, Kershaw. Cliff Lee being traded by the Expos is the only exception. It's simply a falsehood that any significant number of aces are traded at Bundy's age. Teams realize what they have and keep them.

[waroriole]

It's not a zero sum game. You are talking as though there will never be any free agents, and the farm system will shut down if Bundy is traded. Five years from now? Come on. Bundy COULD be the next Mussina. Or the next Ben McDonald or Gregg Olson. How many homegrown aces have WS rings with their original team? Lincecum/Cain, Hamels (although not that team's ace), Buerhle (I guess), Beckett...Pettitte? Glavine? Starting pitching is acquired through free agency.

That IS the model for building a successful franchise. Get a few homegrown position players (Wieters, Markakis, Matusz and Arrieta and Britton hopefully), add a few pieces (Hardy, Reynolds I suppose, most of the bullpen) and then make your mark in FA and with a healthy farm system in order to parlay PROSPECTS into ML-ready contributors. The Yankees do it that way. The Phillies did it that way. The Rangers have done it that way. The Braves did it that way. The Cardinals do it that way.

I love Bundy. Love his potential and his early numbers. But right now, that's all they are.

Please tell me you're an Alabama fan.......not Auburn.

[BhamBird]

100% Roll Tide.

[BhamBird]

And Drungo, I agree with you that top 10 rWAR pitchers should rarely be traded. But can you guarantee me that a) Bundy will get to the Majors and b) he will be top 10 in WAR? Of course not. We are dealing with potential; yes, there is a potential he COULD be an ace, just as there is potential he could amount to nothing. Trading 'potential' has 2 sides, which is why he has the ability to bring back a significant return today.

[Hank Scorpio]

And Drungo, I agree with you that top 10 rWAR pitchers should rarely be traded. But can you guarantee me that a) Bundy will get to the Majors and b) he will be top 10 in WAR? Of course not. We are dealing with potential; yes, there is a potential he COULD be an ace, just as there is potential he could amount to nothing. Trading 'potential' has 2 sides, which is why he has the ability to bring back a significant return today.