Tillman

[weams]

Absolutely,like I said Im trying not too read too much into 1 start. Obviously he'll get knocked around again at some point. It's just that this was a completely different Tillman than he's ever shown in the bigs. I understand that there has been people here following and reporting on his MILB starts and remained high on him. But show me where someone said hey listen youre gonna see a completely new pitcher out there, this guy has made some really big strides.

I think both Jim and I said that several times. His Milb starts, including the one in the downpour, were indicative of someone who had made great strides. When Peterson and Griffin said they had him working on several thing and the results were less than stellar, we believed that it was part of what would make him a lot better. And no, I am not going to go back and quote all my posts about Tillman.

[Malike]

As whynot above says, it's really not about the results. Honestly, I was prepared to see Tillman limit Seattle to very little but still not be that impressed tonight. I predicted 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER and if that had been the case I would've said, fine, that's what I'd expect against this team.

But I think in cases like these we're so used to being burned by seeing a dominant performance like this--only to be followed by disappointment--that we react the other way, and overcompensate with our cautiousness. So let me be completely honest for a second: I saw a TOR starter today (as I said in my initial post). I don't expect him to be that, but that was a legitimate ace performance; he had a 3 pitch mix, all plus pitches, that he could throw in any count. His command was good. His mechanics were very consistent. His demeanor was good. Almost no one hit the ball hard. You note that he was in a huge park, but frankly this didn't come into play much at all: the longest FB of the game off an Oriole pitcher was the last one off Jim Johnson. Other than that, John Jaso's line drive double is probably about the only really hard hit ball (there was one other LD to Avery in LF for an out).

As you note, there's a difference between being a TOR starter and pitching like one. Jason Hammel pitches like one at times, but he's not one. Chen pitches like one at times, but he's not one. But there's not many players in the league (or in the minors) who can even compete stuff-wise with what Tillman was flashing tonight. Of course just because he pitched like a TOR starter doesn't mean he's going to all of a sudden become one, but there's not many people who can realistically say they have that upside. And even if they don't reach it, they tend to settle down as good #2-4 starters as we're seeing with Jason Hammel.

I wouldn't argue with this at all, other than a minor exception that results do matter, ultimately. That said, if he can command his pitches, and keep his stuff, he's going to be very good and as I stated in the game thread, he had a ton of weak contact, because he mixed his pitches up so effectively. If he can sustain that, and utilize his off-speed stuff for strikes, with a 95+ fastball, he could potentially be great for us.

[Lucky Jim]

Absolutely,like I said Im trying not too read too much into 1 start. Obviously he'll get knocked around again at some point. It's just that this was a completely different Tillman than he's ever shown in the bigs. I understand that there has been people here following and reporting on his MILB starts and remained high on him. But show me where someone said hey listen youre gonna see a completely new pitcher out there, this guy has made some really big strides.

This was his best start of the year. Not the metric to judge his value going forward. But perhaps no one saw a "completely new pitcher" because others hadn't written him off? Here are my two scouting reports. They show - literally (save for the top-line velo - and that's because I was reliant on the announcers) - pretty much everything he showed today.

1. FB still flat/straight, but easy velocity that actually got stronger as the game went on. Sitting 93-95 in the eight inning. Some foul balls, but very little solid contact off of it. I don't think the gun was hot, as Dice-K was at 90 or so.

2. Sole hit was a liner up the middle for a single.

3. Command still somewhat spotty on his FB, but he appeared to get low when he wanted to and he was working in-and-out of a relatively neutral-to-ungenerous strike zone. That said, he still zoned in on low-and-away on his FB, for the most part, only occasionally trying to come in under the hands or go up in the zone (intentionally, not from over-throwing).

4. Threw what appeared to be four other pitches (besides his FB), but heavily relied upon FB/curve. He threw a big-breaking, 11-5 curve in the mid-to-upper 70s, a slider-like, harder curve in the 80s, a cutter/SL (looked more like a cutter), and very few change-ups, that I saw. He didn't locate the cutter well, but it was relatively effective. He used the curve in two ways: as a change-of-pace off his FB and burying it in the dirt for a third strike.

5. His motion still isn't smooth, but it's not effortful, either. [Edit to add: it appeared to me that there was some deception to it, as well. Hitters were way-late on a number of pitches. Early on, I thought this might be the sun/shadow, but it got progressively more frequent after dark.] His velocity looks very real.

6. He started off slowly, w/ somewhat diminished velo and command, but got better inning-by-inning.

7. No loud outs.

Eh. He was only 89-92 for much of his most recent start (according to the announcers, by the stadium gun). He gained velo as the start went on, though - and was 93 and 94 for his 7th K in the 6th. Be nice to get a report to know for sure. I don't expect Tillman to be a mid-90s guy, but if he can sit 92-94 that would be solid.

Watching the game, Tillman doesn't look filthy, but he's getting a decent number of swings and misses. He threw his change-up more, and his arm action was good on it (he generated swings and misses, including going back-to-back changes for a K on Florimon), but it didn't have a ton of fade. He used the big curve more than his other breaking pitches - he generated two swings and misses with it before giving up a HR to Ramirez on a slider/cutter that wasn't terribly located, but caught a bit too much of the outside part of the plate. He's throwing it for strikes at times, and burying it, too.

In both starts, it looks like batters are having trouble getting a good look at what he's throwing. His wind-up has been simplified- he's starting from almost a stretch position, and goes straight to it (though he still cocks the ball behind his back). The HR in the 6th was the only hard hit ball in the start.

Of note, before giving up the HR in the sixth, Tillman had thrown 11 perfect innings between his last two starts.

I think I may have undersold the change due to the camera angle - which is atrocious on MiLBTV. This applies equally to the bit of late lateral life his FB had - tough to see from the off-set camera angles on MiLBTV.

[Slappy]

All I can say is... that was awesome. Props to Tillman, Petersen, and anyone else working with the guy. And props to the posters that stood behind the guy. Count me as one who never expected much from him going forward.

[Flash- bd]

I wouldn't argue with this at all, other than a minor exception that results do matter, ultimately. That said, if he can command his pitches, and keep his stuff, he's going to be very good and as I stated in the game thread, he had a ton of weak contact, because he mixed his pitches up so effectively. If he can sustain that, and utilize his off-speed stuff for strikes, with a 95+ fastball, he could potentially be great for us.

Yeah, absolutely. I meant "it's really not about the results" in the sense that Tillman could've put up this exact same line but looked different and I wouldn't be that impressed.Shutting down the Mariners at Safeco is not in and of itself a great feat. It was the way he did it that was particularly impressive.

[ccbird]

Actually, I took issue with something else: the idea that his supporters would be surprised based on his prior MLB starts. And I took issue with it because our prior argument re: Tillman involved me specifically telling you you should watch him pitch this year before giving up on him wholly based on his prior MLB starts. The fact is, for a number of us, our optimism was based on what we've seen developing. It wasn't some blind faith and hope, as characterized.

It's not a big deal. And I'm definitely (for the moment) patting myself on the back a bit (and a bit feisty). I'm an Oriole fan whose patience and optimism was rewarded with a good performance. You have to realize how rare it is to be optimistic as an O's fan and actually be rewarded for it.

t

I get to be right (for the moment) without predicting the worst. It's like winning the exacta.

It's not reasonable to think things would remain pretty much the same for Tillman once he reached the Show again. I mean this was a guy who figured out AAA a few times. Not only that but he struggled for the first few months of this year. I understand some of you who's opinions I respect were watching and reporting his changes but until I saw it with my own eyes at the ML level it wasn't going to change my opinion. Thats how down on Tillman I was.

[whynot38]

All I can say is... that was awesome. Props to Tillman, Petersen, and anyone else working with the guy. And props to the posters that stood behind the guy. Count me as one who never expected much from him going forward.

And for a day its very interesting to see the whole tone of this board change with Tillman's start. Virtually all of the pessimism has, for the moment, turned into optimism

[Frobby]

Tillman's greatest hits:

9/16/09 -- 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K's

7/10/10 -- 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K's

9/12/10 -- 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 4 K's

10/1/10 -- 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K's

4/2/11 --- 6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K's

5/11/11 -- 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K's

8/6/11 --- 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's

He's certainly capable of shutting down an opponent.

7/4/12 -- 8.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K's

I think today topped all the others. If not for Betemit and Andino, he has a complete game shutout.

[Lucky Jim]

7/4/12 -- 8.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K's

I think today topped all the others. If not for Betemit and Andino, he has a complete game shutout.

And the difference in SwSt% is telling, too - in his August, 2011 start it was aroundn 8% (below average) and today around 12+% (above average).

[Flacco Machado]

Prediction: Chris Tillman comes up and dominates. Settles in as our #3 starter.

BTW, what jersey number do you think Chris will wear? The "Meat" now has #24, his old number.

Atta boy, Chris!

[Flacco Machado]

Prediction: Tillman still has a straight, flat fastball that he can't locate on a consistent basis. Members of the OH who still think he can be a good pitcher cling to the fact that he has a good curveball. Whatever.

Were you impressed, Moose?

[Flacco Machado]

Steve Johnson is a product of that as well

Steve Johnson came over in the George Sherrill trade, along with Josh Bell.

[Lucky Jim]

Were you impressed, Moose?

I doubt he watched.

[Can_of_corn]

Steve Johnson came over in the George Sherrill trade, along with Josh Bell.

And how did the O's acquire Sherrill?

[Redgrape]

How was his velocity?