Tillman

[Ampontan]

We may really have something here. The pitcher I saw tonight is Buckholz-like with a better fastball. He was throwing 5 pitches (4SFB, 2SFB, slider, curve, and change) and mixing them in almost any count.

Extend Rick Peterson!

[Flash- bd]

That is two starts in a row where he showed a pretty nasty little slider in the 82-84 mph range against righties. Where did that come from? The location can be erratic, but damn the break is late, sharp, down, and away. The hitters are getting no read on that thing at all and he is getting really weak contact on it. It is also propping up the fastball even more.

Yup, and (see my post above) the sabermetric reports shine an especially favorable light on his slider. He seemed to first really incorporate it against Cleveland, and ever since then, it's been a huge surprise.

[lovetoaster]

We may really have something here. The pitcher I saw tonight is Buckholz-like with a better fastball. He was throwing 5 pitches (4SFB, 2SFB, slider, curve, and change) and mixing them in almost any count.

There were several "go ahead, try and hit it" pitches tonight, and nobody did. It's been a while since an O's starter was able to do that. You are right, his command was a little off, but his stuff was so good, that it didn't matter.

[Barnaby Graves]

As you recognize, comparing his change-up to Sale's or Santana's (the latter's change-up being like, you know, the paradigm case for an awesome swing-and-miss changeup) has its limits. Still, based on the results this year, Tillman's is pretty good. It's pitch value (/100) is 2.48, the highest of his offerings. I tend to agree that Tillman's change-up isn't as much a swing-and-miss pitch as a keep-batters-off-balance pitch, as it doesn't have special movement or fade to it (though the arm action is quite good, as is the differential, and it's probably the pitch he controls best, from what I've seen), but whiff/swing rate on it is pretty high (27.54%), the highest of his pitches (Curveball comes in at 22.41%) outside of the slider (which is barely higher at 28.21%), which he's thrown about half as much as his change-up.

http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=501957 (As his pitch value would suggest, the change-up is also getting hit with less authority than any of his other pitches, including the SL--which currently ranks as his second best pitch/100 on fangraphs--where his HR/FB+LD is 1.96% w/ the CH and 6.67% w/ the SL....In regards to the slider...and even somewhat w/ the change, we can't discount SSS effects, he's thrown 530 CH and 246 SL according to brooks baseball so we can take this with at least a small grain of salt)

As for his curveball/slider (I'm not sure I feel comfortable making the differentiation between these two pitches at this point, it's probably more useful just to refer to them as his breaking ball), I think it's a plus pitch but he definitely struggles to command it. So I guess that's more of a philosophical argument whether you factor in command into the discussion of the "rating" of the pitch, but either way, like I said, I think Tillman's secondaries are quite good on the whole and rather under appreciated from what I've seen here on the OH.

My comment was more directed at Barnaby, and I quoted you (as you were quoting Barnaby) out of pure laziness. So yeah, I didn't mean to imply anything about your assessment of Tilly.

Great analysis. As a couch analyst and not a guy in the batter's box, I'm doing the best I can with limited data, but his curveball to me seems to be the same kind of loopy, poorly-located pitch that it was last year. Sometimes he'll throw a good one. I'm probably introducing selective bias here but it just doesn't seem to fool anyone very well at any time. I think the ideal curveball breaks from the top of the strikezone to the outside corner and Chris's seem to either end up at the top of the zone, slightly above, or in the dirt. Plus, the curve is a weapon against same-handed batters, and he's struggling against same-handed batters, so I don't think I'm too far off base.

[Flash- bd]

Great analysis. As a couch analyst and not a guy in the batter's box, I'm doing the best I can with limited data, but his curveball to me seems to be the same kind of loopy, poorly-located pitch that it was last year. Sometimes he'll throw a good one. I'm probably introducing selective bias here but it just doesn't seem to fool anyone very well at any time. I think the ideal curveball breaks from the top of the strikezone to the outside corner and Chris's seem to either end up at the top of the zone, slightly above, or in the dirt. Plus, the curve is a weapon against same-handed batters, and he's struggling against same-handed batters, so I don't think I'm too far off base.

Yeah, from my armchair () I more or less agree with that evaluation of Chris' curve. That said, even if he doesn't improve his location of it, it's still a useful pitch because when he does get it over it's a pretty reliable strike pitch (ie, even if it's badly located it's not going to get hit with much authority, and most of the time batters will just take it), and it keeps batters off balance, and off his fastball (this has all been said, I know).

I do think it has potential as a strike out pitch, and I think it's just fine when he locates it in the dirt, so long as it has its good 12-6 break on it. It's ironic but the best curve I've seen from him was against Boston, 2 starts ago, when he was constantly getting some nice tilt/drop on it and locating it mostly in the dirt, ie, getting on top of it. He didn't get many swings and misses, though (if you watch carefully, though, hitters are not necessarily taking this pitch with ease. You see a lot of half-swings or anxious leans), which either lends credence to your idea that it's just not a plus curve or suggests other possible variables were at play (good, patient Red Sox hitters having good ABs, or, as SrMeowMeow suggested--I think it was SrMeowMeow?--he was tipping his curve).

[JayThomas]

They just had a great stat on SportsCenter.

Chris Tillman is the first Oriole pitcher 25 or younger to go at least 7 innings and allow 1 or 0 runs since Ben McDonald. It's a short list including Moose and starting with Jim Palmer. Pretty good company.

[weams]

They just had a great stat on SportsCenter.

Chris Tillman is the first Oriole pitcher 25 or younger to go at least 7 innings and allow 1 or 0 runs since Ben McDonald. It's a sort list including Moose and starting with Jim Palmer. Pretty good company.

Love it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Love it.

What the hell is going on?

[Moose Milligan]

He looked awesome tonight.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Wow, that was something. He didn't have great command of anything, but the stuff was so overwhelming that it didn't matter much. That slight across the body thing he has going on really does look a little Jered Weaver-like. The hitters are clearly picking up the fastball very, very late. He kept notorious fastball hitters like Konerko and Youkilis off 91-92 mph fastballs all night long.

That is two starts in a row where he showed a pretty nasty little slider in the 82-84 mph range against righties. Where did that come from? The location can be erratic, but damn the break is late, sharp, down, and away. The hitters are getting no read on that thing at all and he is getting really weak contact on it. It is also propping up the fastball even more.

The thing I loved with Tilly tonight is that he looked completely calm even with guys on base after walks. He looked sure that he would get the next hitter. That combo serene but confident look is really interesting and completely new this year.

We may really have something here. The pitcher I saw tonight is Buckholz-like with a better fastball. He was throwing 5 pitches (4SFB, 2SFB, slider, curve, and change) and mixing them in almost any count.

I noticed it 4-5 starts ago. He's been throwing it more and more and threw quite a few sliders tonight that I could see. After going back and looking that the game again, your comment about "coming across the body" seems to be spot on, although I'd probably call it changing his arm angle on both the slider and the FB at various times. He did it often enough to give the batter a different look and it was pretty effective.

After looking that he game a second time, I'd say slider and the curve were both very good, although as others have said, his CB is pretty inconsistent.

[Lucky Jim]

My scouting from earlier this year:

RVA - please contradict my report, if you watch. I actually figured out my MiLB situation and here's what I saw:

1. FB still flat/straight, but easy velocity that actually got stronger as the game went on. Sitting 93-95 in the eight inning. Some foul balls, but very little solid contact off of it. I don't think the gun was hot, as Dice-K was at 90 or so.

2. Sole hit was a liner up the middle for a single.

3. Command still somewhat spotty on his FB, but he appeared to get low when he wanted to and he was working in-and-out of a relatively neutral-to-ungenerous strike zone. That said, he still zoned in on low-and-away on his FB, for the most part, only occasionally trying to come in under the hands or go up in the zone (intentionally, not from over-throwing).

4. Threw what appeared to be four other pitches (besides his FB), but heavily relied upon FB/curve. He threw a big-breaking, 11-5 curve in the mid-to-upper 70s, a slider-like, harder curve in the 80s, a cutter/SL (looked more like a cutter), and very few change-ups, that I saw. He didn't locate the cutter well, but it was relatively effective. He used the curve in two ways: as a change-of-pace off his FB and burying it in the dirt for a third strike.

5. His motion still isn't smooth, but it's not effortful, either. [Edit to add: it appeared to me that there was some deception to it, as well. Hitters were way-late on a number of pitches. Early on, I thought this might be the sun/shadow, but it got progressively more frequent after dark.] His velocity looks very real.

6. He started off slowly, w/ somewhat diminished velo and command, but got better inning-by-inning.

7. No loud outs.

Eh. He was only 89-92 for much of his most recent start (according to the announcers, by the stadium gun). He gained velo as the start went on, though - and was 93 and 94 for his 7th K in the 6th. Be nice to get a report to know for sure. I don't expect Tillman to be a mid-90s guy, but if he can sit 92-94 that would be solid.

Watching the game, Tillman doesn't look filthy, but he's getting a decent number of swings and misses. He threw his change-up more, and his arm action was good on it (he generated swings and misses, including going back-to-back changes for a K on Florimon), but it didn't have a ton of fade. He used the big curve more than his other breaking pitches - he generated two swings and misses with it before giving up a HR to Ramirez on a slider/cutter that wasn't terribly located, but caught a bit too much of the outside part of the plate. He's throwing it for strikes at times, and burying it, too.

In both starts, it looks like batters are having trouble getting a good look at what he's throwing. His wind-up has been simplified- he's starting from almost a stretch position, and goes straight to it (though he still cocks the ball behind his back). The HR in the 6th was the only hard hit ball in the start.

Of note, before giving up the HR in the sixth, Tillman had thrown 11 perfect innings between his last two starts.

I want to be clear, I would never predict success for Tillman at the MLB level. I'm hopeful. I see some reason for optimism and lingering reason for concern. I hope he gets a chance. And, for his (and our) sake, hope he pitches well.

Probably because folks are generally looking for them.

He's not going to come up and be a savior. He's a flawed prospect, who's bounced around. But he's been effective at the MiLB level, and he's showing better stuff than he did in the past. If we want to find excuses to doubt him, I'm not sure what the point is - doubt is already high. If we want to find excuses not to bring him up, that's not a very good one.

As I posted earlier, he's at 15.8 pitches per inning over his last seven starts. Not that big a deal.*

*Save for the 5IP monsoon start.

Most of this still stands.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Loved what I saw from him.....he was fearless against a very solid, 1st in their division lineup with some BIG BATS in the middle of that lineup.

He went right at them all night long, wasn't scared a bit, didn't give an inch and only gave up one freaking hit.

Very impressive performance.

Now if we can just get 6 decent innings from Saunders and then get him out of there after only giving up 2 or 3 runs in his O's debut, I'll feel very good about our chances with our current 5 man rotation. Especially considering we haven't even got Hammel back in there yet.

Tilly was the man for sure though, tip of the cap Sir!

[OFFNY]

.

CHRIS TILLMAN O(vs. YANKEES, 9/02)

IP:O 3 *

H:o. 2

R:O. 2

BB:. 2

SO:. 2

Pitches: 44 (24 Strikes, 20 Balls)

2012 ERA: 3.39

* Tillman left the game after 3 innings with an elbow injury.

[OFFNY]

O

SEATTLE MARINERS O(SEPTEMBER 17th)

Dustin Ackley - 2B

Franklin Gutierrez - CF

Kyle Seager - 3B

Jesus Montero - C

John Jaso - DH

Michael Saunders - LF

Justin Smoak - 1B

Eric Thames - RF

Brendan Ryan - SS

OPPOSING PITCHER: Hector Noesi - RHP (2-11, 5.54 ERA)

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

[OFFNY]

.

CHRIS TILLMAN O(vs. MARINERS, 9/17)

IP:O 6

H:o. 3

R:O. 1

BB:. 0

SO:. 4

Pitches: 91 (58 Strikes, 33 Balls)

2012 ERA: 3.22