Help convince me we shouldn't be trading Jim Johnson

[mark_beckens]

Of course I would mind! Thankfully that's not within the realm of possibility. Gregg is about 10th in line for the closer's role after Johnson.

And that's the argument why I wouldn't actually trade Johnson, and why he won't actually be traded. If we were playing Baseball Manager and just doing highly-accurate simulations, it would make sense to trade Johnson, but things are a lot more complicated than that when you factor in players' pyschologies. You don't just trade a guy like Jim Johnson without it having a major effect on the other players.

But if that weren't the case, yes, I would trade him given the right package. His value is as high as it's going to get, and likely will drop a bit, so from a philosophical standpoint, it's the ideal time to trade him. Hence why it's a good post.

So you would be confortable with Strop, Lindstrom?

[Flash- bd]

So you would be confortable with Strop, Lindstrom?

I'd assume that the value drop-off between Johnson and Strop/Lindstrom/O'Day/Pomeranz/Gonzalez would be greatly outweighed by the potentially 2-3 quality (future) starters we'd be getting. That is: it all depends on the package. But if you could trade Jim Johnson for a package like Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, + George Sherrill you're telling me it wouldn't be worth it?

[Can_of_corn]

So you would be confortable with Strop, Lindstrom?

I would be if it meant the O's had a bright, shiny, new third baseman that could both hit and catch a baseball.

[Deanbird]

It took us at least a decade of horrible closers to get to Johnson--someone we developed into a quality pitcher.

You don't get to be 14-6 in one-run games with a bad closer.

Blown saves early in the year ruined several seasons from Baez, Julio, DeJean, Gonzales, and other names I've repressed.

[MrOrange82]

I would trade him right now for a Bedard like package, and kick in 50 bucks towards his plane ticket.

Mine's not a completely (or even mostly) rational stance. The O's have been so inept when it comes to building (for so long), that I don't want to disrupt a potential lightning-in-a-bottle-type season by trading away Johnson if the O's are still in the race. Particularly given that he might maintain similar (if somewhat diminished) trade value during the winter months. Game's just not worth watching if, every year, "winning" is postponed in favor of uncertain, future gains.

[Barnaby Graves]

It took us at least a decade of horrible closers to get to Johnson--someone we developed into a quality pitcher.

You don't get to be 14-6 in one-run games with a bad closer.

Blown saves early in the year ruined several seasons from Baez, Julio, DeJean, Gonzales, and other names I've repressed.

I definitely feel you here but my point is that, those games are already etched in stone, is he likely to carry us to that 14-6 record (9-2 in extras) in the future? If his LOB% and BABIP normalize, which in every other pitcher's case they seem to, those records will normalize too.

[Can_of_corn]

It took us at least a decade of horrible closers to get to Johnson--someone we developed into a quality pitcher.

You don't get to be 14-6 in one-run games with a bad closer.

Blown saves early in the year ruined several seasons from Baez, Julio, DeJean, Gonzales, and other names I've repressed.

B.J. Ryan says Hi!

[clapdiddy]

I am all in favor of selling high. If not during the season then during the offseason.

Everyone says how Riveria is the gold standard of closers, and he is, but take a look at how the Yankees are doing with him on the DL.

Relief pitchers are replaceable.

This time 1000. As much as I love Jim Johnson, if we could turn him into two or three pieces for down the road, or really close to the majors, you gotta go for it.

[sangar]

I don't see why waiting until we're out of it would be a good idea as that should depend on the return package. What if we could get Peter Bourjos for him?

[Deanbird]

B.J. Ryan says Hi!

That was a name I repressed.

[Can_of_corn]

That was a name I repressed.

I don't know why, he had a great year with the O's and they got two draft picks for him when the Jays overpaid for him.

[clapdiddy]

I don't know why, he had a great year with the O's and they got two draft picks for him when the Jays overpaid for him.

Who were those picks? Seriously...I have no idea.

[Can_of_corn]

Who were those picks? Seriously...I have no idea.

Sorry, researching it looks like it was just a supplemental pick. Still better off then holding onto him.

They drafted Pedro Beato in the supplemental round.

[CheeryO]

Everyone (including me) loves this guy and people don't want to think we should be selling. But I am worried about his peripherals.

Two really amazing numbers stand out, his LOB% (96.9) and his BABIP (.162). That BABIP is 100 points lower than his career and the LOB% is otherworldly. We've also had a pretty crazy number of close games and as a result he's got 25 saves.

There's plenty of reasons to think Johnson is a legit great closer and that even if he regressed he would still be a very good pitcher. He throws a lot of groundballs (67.3%) and his repertoire is pretty awesome. The heavy movement on his fastball seems to be a big reason people don't make very good contact on him.

Still though, you have to imagine some of those groundballs just haven't been finding holes, and that might change. Not a lot of guys beat their xFIP by over 2 runs, and when those guys are relievers... probably the most volatile of all players in year-to-year WAR... that just screams "sell high" to me.

Now, there's another problem though. You're unlikely to find a buyer for Johnson with the players we want if we wanted to stay competitive, since any buyer for Johnson is already competitive. Ergo, you're not getting a guy already contributing to his major league team. It'd be a different story if we were selling everything but I can't imagine anything more distasteful to the fanbase right now than to trade Jim Johnson for two nice pieces at A or high-A or something.

I don't know. Thoughts? If he was traded what would you want back?

What are they going to get for him that would make it worth trading him? I doubt the O's could get a top prospect for him, they're not going to get a good pitcher for him (and if they could, why give up one good young pitcher for another), and they have enough replacement level or just better than replacement level players. Unless they were in last place, it makes little sense to trade a player performing that well they have under control for a few more years unless they are going to get a haul for him, and they aren't going to get a haul for Johnson (or rather it's quite unlikely).

[Ooooooohhhh!!!!]

And that's the argument why I wouldn't actually trade Johnson, and why he won't actually be traded. If we were playing Baseball Manager and just doing highly-accurate simulations, it would make sense to trade Johnson, but things are a lot more complicated than that when you factor in players' pyschologies. You don't just trade a guy like Jim Johnson without it having a major effect on the other players.

But if that weren't the case, yes, I would trade him given the right package. His value is as high as it's going to get, and likely will drop a bit, so from a philosophical standpoint, it's the ideal time to trade him. Hence why it's a good post.

My point is this....why are we even bringing something like this up? Like it or not we're in a playoff race. Why would trading away talent even cross our minds? That's a loser mentality. (Yes, I know where that comes from. I'm fearing the worst too.)