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Jake Arrieta needs a one-way ticket to Norfolk


oriolefan1035

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ERA is a bull**** stat. The results have sucked, the parade of hits have sucked, the untimely walks have sucked, maybe he's not as good as his FIP but he's not as bad as his ERA and while I'm sure he's being demoted I would really appreciate some insight as to what specifically is so broken about his mechanics. God help me if I have to watch an "innings eater."

I would rather watch an innings eater than a guy who doesn't finish 5 innings almost half the time and who has an ERA over 6.00. The idea that ERA is a BS stat is a BS idea. The game is about preventing runs, and Jake isn't doing it. He's been terrible, and the sad fact is that a pitcher like Eveland (or more likely, Gonzalez) probably gives us a better chance to win than Jake does right now. When a guy goes 12 starts to a 7.71 ERA it simply is not that hard to find someone who can do better. Let Jake go down to AAA and fix whatever isn't working. Do I know exactly what it is? No. But I know an ineffective pitcher when I see one.

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He had a 1.69 era in three starts with us before we released him' date=' what's your point? Does it really surprise you that a guy who can barely break 85 got lit up pitching in Las Vegas where regular fly ball outs turn into home runs?[/quote']

My point was that that was an experiment that the Orioles thought better of. Like Tejada. I do not feel that Duquette missed out on asking for another AAA start. I feel Moyer did. Because he would have gotten the chance here. Oh well.

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I agree Eveland is certainly not a long term answer and may in fact end up being worse than Arrieta over the next couple starts (if Jake is indeed sent down). But I'd still rather Jake get sent down to AAA to work on his stuff down there instead of up here and face some weaker lineups so maybe he can get away with a couple of those mistake pitches to the point that he gets his confidence back up to where it needs to be.

Do you disagree that confidence is important for a starting pitcher? Do you really think we can run him out there against the Yankees and Sox when we get back to Division play and expect anything else besides a blood bath?

It just isn't good enough and it is VERY hard to find your form again when you are struggling at the major league level. Professional hitters KNOW you are struggling and are much more aware thanks to advanced scouting that they can sit on your breaking pitches and wail them if you aren't commanding your fastball. Yes that is simplifying things a bit' date=' but Jake is getting pulverized at the major league level to the tune of a 6.13 era and a 1.41 whip.

Also, his last three decent to solid outings were all against National League teams who never see him.

6 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 5 k's against the Nats

7 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 4 ER, 4 ks against the Mets

7 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 9 k's against the Pirates

Maybe we should beg a national league team to take him in a trade? Of course he also gave up 11 hits and 9 runs in 4 innings against the Phil's, but still, three of four outings against the National League were solid appearances.

Oh and against the Nats the first time we played them back on May 18 he went 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 1 ER 9 strikeouts.

So just to recap, if you take out his appearances against the National League, Jake is pitching the following against the American League:

70.1 IP, 77 hits, 27 BB's, 53 ER's, 57 K's

So only about a 2:1 K/BB ration, 104 BB+hits in 70.1 innings and a staggering 53 earned runs in only 70.1 total innings.

He is a bad American League pitcher. His numbers against the National League are staggeringly better. What's my point you might ask? That the book may be out on Jake in the American League, teams that see him all the time know how to hit him. Four of his best 6 or 7 starts this year came against National League teams.

So if he wants to continue to pitch in the Majors, he needs to go down to AAA and work on his mechanics, rebuilding his confidence and bring up something a little different that might help him get American league hitters out or we need to package him in a deal for a big time Major League pitcher in the National League.

It's probably a pipe dream, but ask the Phillies if they'd take him, Matusz and a couple top prospects for Hamels. But regardless, the status quo is no longer good enough for this team, he needs to go down.[/quote']

I think that AL/NL things is just a fact of random variation and SSS, but I'm with the general concept here.

Arrietta is a good pitcher. He has the "stuff" currently. But there's no denying the fact that when s*** hits the fan, he breaks down and becomes a bad pitcher. The moments and leverage situations in which things go bad are not quantified in FIP.

Ideally what I think DD and Showalter are hoping to see is Arrietta go down for 3 starts tops, pitch out of those "leverage" situations in the minors so he can "trust" his stuff, and call him right back up.

Barnaby Graves is right, Jake is straight up the better pitcher than the other options. The odds that Jake could go a CG with 10K's is infinitesimally more likely than Eveland putting up a line like that. But when there are such implosions on the mound like he has, I'd rather send Jake down to make sure that doesn't ever happen when he takes the ball every 5th day.

Arrietta being consistent is more important and valuable to this team than him putting up a phenomenal start one out of every 4.

Barnaby Graves, you talked about finding that other 20% of Jake as to why he just sucks so much, could him just lacking the confidence in his "stuff" during leverage situations be the reason for that 20% of suckitude?

If that's the case (I'm tending to believe it is) send him down buildup the confidence. I'm a stat guy first too, but you can also probably look at the peripherals in certain game type situations where Arrietta has broken down and make the conclusions I'm making

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I would rather watch an innings eater than a guy who doesn't finish 5 innings almost half the time and who has an ERA over 6.00. The idea that ERA is a BS stat is a BS idea. The game is about preventing runs, and Jake isn't doing it. He's been terrible, and the sad fact is that a pitcher like Eveland (or more likely, Gonzalez) probably gives us a better chance to win than Jake does right now. When a guy goes 12 starts to a 7.71 ERA it simply is not that hard to find someone who can do better. Let Jake go down to AAA and fix whatever isn't working. Do I know exactly what it is? No. But I know an ineffective pitcher when I see one.

Frobby laying the smackdown!

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Have to agree with most that it's pretty silly to defend Arrietta right now. It really boils down to one question for me - if Gonzalez or Eveland had started last night, received 7 runs of support in the first 4 innings, would we have had the lead at the end of the 4th? I think the answer is yes, for those two and most other pitchers.

Jake was taked to a 4-1 lead, then immediately walked the leadoff batter the next inning, eventually giving up 2 runs.

Then he was staked to a 7-3 lead, and immediately walked the first TWO batters the next inning - including the second one on 4 pitches. You CANNOT do that. The dude is a mental mess on the mound and it's painfully obvious that he needs to get his ***** together in AAA, regardless of FIP or any other advanced stat. Regardless of other options, I just don't see how you can argue that point with a straight face.

It was certainly not 'bad luck' that he walked those batters last night; nor was it bad luck that he gave up scorching LD hits throughout the game. Yes, there was some bad luck involved - a bloop hit by Trout and then a bad call at 2B led to the first run - but hell, ask Jason Hammel about bad luck (or more accurately, bad defense). I'm pretty sure he would have held the lead last night....

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I watched Arrieta's first few pitches last night. When he threw that curve ball that flew out of his hand, didn't have real break and ended up about 2.5 feet high (3rd or 4th pitch of the game), I turned it off. He's frustrating beyond belief.

This is overly simplistic, but pitching is generally about stuff and ability to locate that stuff. Arrieta's stuff, generally, can be plus. Right now, he cannot consistently execute his pitches or locate.

Consistent execution and location generally comes with consistent mechanics.

Consistent mechanics require 1) the pitcher being taught the right mechanics, 2) the physical fitness to repeat those mechanics and 3) muscle memory.

I think Arrieta needs to go backwards to go forwards. He may or may not have been taught the right mechanics, but I have confidence Peterson can help in that regard. He is definitely very physically fit, so that should be in place. However, when implementing changes to mechanics, it feels very awkward. He needs to work on that until his muscle memory feels good. With that, he will hopefully be able to much more consistently locate, get movement, etc.

I understand this is what we did with Tillman, and for now the results are looking great. For Arrieta, and probably Matusz too, this could be a several month process if it's going to be done right. I don't want to see him pitch well for 4 starts and have us decide everything is great.

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Did Buck really go after Jake on the mound? If so, is there a highlight anywhere?

Fortunately, I fell asleep when we were up 4-3 although I knew we weren't winning the game because Jake was, well, Jake.

Best of luck to Arrieta - hopefully Peterson can fix him.

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Watching some of the game again. Jake makes me anxious just watching him out there. Glad he's back down.

Hmmm, you might be on to something here! Remember Zack Greinke? Remember how bad he was while trying to deal with his anxiety disorder?

Maybe Jake has pitching anxiety? He certainly has a lot of weird mannerisms and quirks on the mound and pretty bad body language at times.

Maybe we should get him some anxiety drugs and see if that works because, why not right? At this point we should be looking into every available avenue to get him to settle down on the mound, control his stuff and repeat his delivery. Maybe help him get out of his own head.

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Did Buck really go after Jake on the mound? If so, is there a highlight anywhere?

Buck had steam coming out of his ears from the second inning on. He stared at Jake when he came off the mound in the second inning. He was pacing around all during the 4th inning. At one point, he opened the little door that covers the bullpen phone so that Arrieta could see it. He went to the mound and barked at Arrieta. When he came out to pull him, he didn't say a word, just smacked Arrieta on the butt. I've never seen him that mad at one of his own players during a game.

Wieters was also furious during the second inning. He made a couple of throws back to Arrieta that were thrown so hard they nearly took Arrieta's arm off when he caught them.

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He had a 1.69 era in three starts with us before we released him' date=' what's your point? Does it really surprise you that a guy who can barely break 85 got lit up pitching in Las Vegas where regular fly ball outs turn into home runs?[/quote']

So if you admit he is a bad bet to give up the HR, why was it a bad move on Duquettes part to release him?

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