Matzusaka officially given permission...

[DrungoHazewood]

That Matsuzaka blog makes me think most Japanese fans are to MLB as American Soccer fans are to Premiership in England. Japanese fans basicly know the Yankees and Mariners and have heard of the Dodgers faintly, just like American's know Chelsea and ManU and have heard of Liverpool maybe once or twice.

It is a silent bid, no reason not to try.

Don't tell me I don't know Blackburn and Reading!

When I was in Japan I saw an O's game on TV. Oh wait... they were playing the Mariners.

[geschinger]

I'd make a bid of about $20M.

This is the premiere guy on the market and the beauty is that he HAS to come here if we win the posting. Theres not even the possibility of him going elsewhere if we have the best offer.

It makes so much sense. Too bad the Orioles are too gunshy to make a move that isn't viewed as 100% safe (even though he's more likely to have more success over the rest of his career than any other FA pitcher, including Zito IMO).

Show us you've got a pair, FO. Make a bold and smart move.

From what I've seen $25 or $30m is what it's going to take. $20m is a good number and would be my high offer. With the posting/salary rule much more than that becomes too much money. But I really see zero chance of getting him for $20m.

[mweb]

From what I've seen $25 or $30m is what it's going to take. $20m is a good number and would be my high offer. With the posting/salary rule much more than that becomes too much money. But I really see zero chance of getting him for $20m.

I wouldn't say zero chance. I doubt it gets up to 30M.

[srock]

From what I've seen $25 or $30m is what it's going to take. $20m is a good number and would be my high offer. With the posting/salary rule much more than that becomes too much money. But I really see zero chance of getting him for $20m.

If the Orioles decide they absolutely want this guy, then post $30 million. If they want to hedge there bet then go $20 million but this likely result in Matsuzaka in pinstripes. If he pitches for 10 years and puts up 180 - 200 wins in that span would the extra $10 million have been worth it? That is $50 K a win.

I say if the Orioles scouts come back positive, then go for this guy hard!

[DrungoHazewood]

I know that this guy performed well in the WBC and everything, but so did Daniel Cabrera. I haven't really seen enough of this guy to know if he is worth that much money, when we could fill other holes with that cash. What is it about him that makes everyone so certain that he will be an ace in the mlb? Just wondering, because I honestly haven't really seen enough of him to know. Thanks.

The short answer is that the Japanese Leagues are between AAA and major league quality, with plenty of MLB-quality hitters. Matsuzaka has been a dominant pitcher there for years. High K rates, great K/BB ratios, great ERAs, good endurance.

Look at it this way - if you had a pitcher in your minor league system who threw 95 with great secondary pitches, he was coming off a 16-5, 2.08 season with more than a K an inning and a K/BB ratio of 4:1 he'd be one of the top five prospects in baseball. Maybe #1. Matsuzaka has performed like that, only he's gone up against better than AAA-caliber hitters.

All the caveats about pitchers getting hurt suddenly and inexplicably apply to him, too. He's not superman. But if he stays healthy he's one of the top 10 or 15 pitchers alive today.

[geschinger]

If the Orioles decide they absolutely want this guy, then post $30 million. If they want to hedge there bet then go $20 million but this likely result in Matsuzaka in pinstripes. If he pitches for 10 years and puts up 180 - 200 wins in that span would the extra $10 million have been worth it? That is $50 K a win.

I say if the Orioles scouts come back positive, then go for this guy hard!

And if he's the second coming of Irabu? At a $30m posting fee you've committed $60m - $20m a year towards him.

[geschinger]

All the caveats about pitchers getting hurt suddenly and inexplicably apply to him, too. He's not superman. But if he stays healthy he's one of the top 10 or 15 pitchers alive today.

Do you think the games w/140+ pitches are a concern? Or is that offset by the 6 days of rest?

[JTrea81]

To make this a moot point or not, BB has your guy said anything about making a bid for this guy? The O's were interested earlier but that's about all that has been said.

[Sports Guy]

Do you think the games w/140+ pitches are a concern? Or is that offset by the 6 days of rest?

And if it is offset, do we worry about the fact he is used to working on 6 days rest?

[rolliefingers]

No doubt this guy should be our #1 target, especially considering the process (if you win the posting fee battle, you get exclusive negotiating rights, which is much better than trying to lure Zito or Schmidt in an open market) and the potential TV revenue he could bring to MASN.

I just have no faith that PA will look at the "insane" money he's sure to command as being any different than giving that money to Zito. I would absolutely love to be proven wrong on this, but I'm not holding my breath.

[srock]

And if he's the second coming of Irabu? At a $30m posting fee you've committed $60m - $20m a year towards him.

Nobody ever got anywhere without taking a chance...

Gotta spend money to make money...

Lost it all at a game of pitch and toss...you'll be a man my friend...blah blah blah

*insert cliche reason here*

[rolliefingers]

Nobody ever got anywhere without taking a chance...

Gotta spend money to make money...

Lost it all at a game of pitch and toss...you'll be a man my friend...blah blah blah

*insert cliche reason here*

Also:

Nice guys finish last

and

Second place is the first loser

(I was drunk when I made that up!)

[geschinger]

Also:

Nice guys finish last

and

Second place is the first loser

(I was drunk when I made that up!)

I could counter with something that is more profound...

No one wins. One side just loses more slowly.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you think the games w/140+ pitches are a concern? Or is that offset by the 6 days of rest?

Something of a concern, but not a big one. Almost all Japanese pitchers are worked hard - over there it's almost like the pitching coaches were taken from the 1954 and transported to 2006 in a time machine. Despite that most of the other Japanese pitchers that have come here have thrived. I don't see why Matsuzaka would be different.

I think pitchers are a lot more resiliant than they're given credit for - most pitchers could handle a lot less structured roles than they're accustomed to in the majors today.

And how about another crazy idea - if Japanese pitchers can throw 130, 140 pitches a game on six days rest maybe they're ahead of the curve. Maybe in 2015 you'll see major league pitchers going 27 starts/210 innings instead of 32/180. Maybe that's the way to keep the ball out of the hands of your 11th- and 12th-best pitchers.

[geschinger]

Something of a concern, but not a big one. Almost all Japanese pitchers are worked hard - over there it's almost like the pitching coaches were taken from the 1954 and transported to 2006 in a time machine. Despite that most of the other Japanese pitchers that have come here have thrived. I don't see why Matsuzaka would be different.

Can it be said that Japanese pitchers who have come here have thrived as starters?

Japanese starters that come to mind are Nomo and Ohka who had/have some success and Irabu and Ishii who were disappointments. I'm not coming up with many others although I know I'm forgetting others.