Duquette and the Pennant: This Time It's Personal

[ChicagoBird]

Your point is valid, but the supporting arguments not necessarily so. You can pick any team and find a period of time where they'd finish horribly if they played at that pace all year. Also, is our schedule the same the next 45 days as it has been the last 45? We have faced some of the better pitching in both leagues over that period of games. Is that likely to continue?

That doesn't mean we'll perform any better, but using the last 44 games to predict the next 44 really isn't apples to apples.

I appreciate the response. I wasn't trying to cherry pick the stats. I was merely showing that over the most recent seven weeks, which comprises one-quarter of the season overall, we have played terrible baseball (a 66-win pace). That doesn't mean that we'll play as bad over the next seven weeks, but to me it says that we're not good enough to trade Schoop + Matusz/Arrieta for a short-term rental.

As an aside, the teams we've played over the past 44 games have a .509 winning percentage (522-504) and the teams we play over the next 44 have a .508 winning percentage (522-505). Those are gross totals that I did not weight by number of games, but it looks to be roughly similar.

[Mondo Trasho]

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2012/07/how-far-should-the-orioles-go-to-make-a-deal.html

I've been pretty vocal about not chasing rentals or giving up real value for (what I consider to be) a largely speculative run at the playoffs.

But this makes me even more uneasy. Just as I wouldn't want Buck to burn out an arm in pursuit of redemption, I don't think Duquette's need to redeem himself should play any part in what we do this off-season (even if it's admittedly hard to avoid from a personal perspective). Thoughts?

I don't want us to pursue rentals at all costs. Any trade made (if any) should be reasonable.

However:

1) I wonder what happens if this team collapses. I don't live in Baltimore so I have no idea how fans (both serious and casual) will react. I'm here for life, though I can't speak for others. But at some point doesn't this team become the team who cried wolf? Hot start, collapse in 2005, and then again in 2012, it sort of becomes "fool me once, fool me twice" right? That's something to think about if you want a full stadium and revenue.

2) I am deeply skeptical about our abilities as an organization to develop talent. From Ryan Kohlmeier to Adam Loewen we just can't do it. Maybe Machado and Bundy are talented enough to overcome the shackles of the Orioles organization, but pinning all our dreams on the "future" seems to be misguided.

3) Realistically, this team is about as good as its going to get. Markakis, Jones, Davis, Hammel, Chen, and even Wieters are not going to get drastically better over the next few years. Maybe marginally, but I can't see any kind of drastic improvements. So if we're not going to win this year, we're basically not going to be good enough until about 2014-2015.

[El Gordo]

I don't want us to pursue rentals at all costs. Any trade made (if any) should be reasonable.

However:

1) I wonder what happens if this team collapses. I don't live in Baltimore so I have no idea how fans (both serious and casual) will react. I'm here for life, though I can't speak for others. But at some point doesn't this team become the team who cried wolf? Hot start, collapse in 2005, and then again in 2012, it sort of becomes "fool me once, fool me twice" right? That's something to think about if you want a full stadium and revenue.

2) I am deeply skeptical about our abilities as an organization to develop talent. From Ryan Kohlmeier to Adam Loewen we just can't do it. Maybe Machado and Bundy are talented enough to overcome the shackles of the Orioles organization, but pinning all our dreams on the "future" seems to be misguided.

3) Realistically, this team is about as good as its going to get. Markakis, Jones, Davis, Hammel, Chen, and even Wieters are not going to get drastically better over the next few years. Maybe marginally, but I can't see any kind of drastic improvements. So if we're not going to win this year, we're basically not going to be good enough until about 2014-2015.

Disagree. Wieters, Markakis, Hardy, Reynolds, Tillman, Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta, all could improve significantly. If some do we'll be better without any additions.

[Dark Helmet]

I'm scared DD is going to do something ill advised. To the point that I wouldn't mind us struggling out of the gate to start the 2nd half if that is what it takes to stop DD from making a win now move.

Nothing personal, but that comment bugged the hell out of me. Lets hope for an 0-30 start to 2013 while we're at it and get any chances at winning out of the way early so we don't have to deal with all this trade and possible playoff talk.

This fanbase really has become content with losing and holding on to the pipedreams that the next great savior is waiting for his cup of coffee in the bigs.

Im tired of waiting. I agree with DD...Its about winning and the future is now!

[Vertigo]

I'm scared DD is going to do something ill advised. To the point that I wouldn't mind us struggling out of the gate to start the 2nd half if that is what it takes to stop DD from making a win now move.

That really is just a pathetic outlook. The mindset of some Orioles fans rooting for the team to lose because they're afraid the GM might do something stupid that sets the organization back several years.

Duquette has done nothing to this point to suggest that he would do such a thing.

And outside of trading Bundy and Machado, no players on the teams of our minor league affiliates should be deemed untouchable in any trade that can make us better in 2012 and the immediate future.

[Scrat1]

Nothing personal, but that comment bugged the hell out of me.

Im tired of waiting. I agree with DD...Its about winning and the future is now!

If what you're suggesting is true, which it is not, then the only reason we haven't won in the past fourteen years is a lack of willpower. Whoda thunk? These past fourteen years all we needed was some handsome, swashbuckling GM to ride into the front office on top of a horse, or maybe a tank, or maybe a horsetank with a horse's body and tank treads, and tell all those cowards to win right NOW. All this time they hadn't actually understood what the purpose of the game was. Finally, everything is clear.

In fact, the inverse of what you're suggesting is true. For the past fourteen years, Andy MacPhail's era aside, almost all of our GMs have been of the swashbuckling variety and it's a significant reason we're in this mess. Now, due to a combination of smart acquisitions and restraint from both MacPhail and DD, we're just now beginning to climb out of that hole. The last thing we need right now is some jackass bursting through the saloon doors and shooting his pistols off.

[ccbird]

Nothing personal, but that comment bugged the hell out of me. Lets hope for an 0-30 start to 2013 while we're at it and get any chances at winning out of the way early so we don't have to deal with all this trade and possible playoff talk.

This fanbase really has become content with losing and holding on to the pipedreams that the next great savior is waiting for his cup of coffee in the bigs.

Im tired of waiting. I agree with DD...Its about winning and the future is now!

That really is just a pathetic outlook. The mindset of some Orioles fans rooting for the team to lose because they're afraid the GM might do something stupid that sets the organization back several years.

Duquette has done nothing to this point to suggest that he would do such a thing.

And outside of trading Bundy and Machado, no players on the teams of our minor league affiliates should be deemed untouchable in any trade that can make us better in 2012 and the immediate future.

That's how scared I am of Duq doing something stupid. Listen, I was fine with the Thome trade and I'd be fine for us going after a relatively cheap vet that can help like Colon or picking up the salary of a Soriano.. I'm also fine with going after a Headley who will help us both this year and beyond. It's just a fine line you have to walk, yes DD should be doing what he can to improve the team but the future has to be kept in the forefront. I can't support trading off say a Matusz, Avery, and Schoop for 2+ months of Greinke in what will likely be an unsuccessful playoff run. We simply aren't good enough to be "all in" and go all out for it. So yeah, if it took us losing coming out of the break to stop DD from making a trade like one above that's what I would prefer to happen.

[Mondo Trasho]

Disagree. Wieters, Markakis, Hardy, Reynolds, Tillman, Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta, all could improve significantly. If some do we'll be better without any additions.

Hardy, Markakis and Reynolds are all in their late 20s, you usually don't see guys make major strides right around age 30 (at least not since the steroid era). It's not even known whether Reynolds will be back next year. I'll concede Arrieta, Matusz, Britton and perhaps Tillman. But I wouldn't consider any of them (aside from Britton) part of our "core".

[MrOrange82]

That really is just a pathetic outlook. The mindset of some Orioles fans rooting for the team to lose because they're afraid the GM might do something stupid that sets the organization back several years.

Really? The mindset(s) of the fans has made the Orioles bad for 14 years? The mindset(s) of the fans will ensure that the Orioles remain bad?

Unless you're implying that O's fandom, along with the usual t-shirt, cap, etc., comes with mind-control superpowers, I don't think that directing the word "pathetic" as you did is/was apropos.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That's how scared I am of Duq doing something stupid. Listen, I was fine with the Thome trade and I'd be fine for us going after a relatively cheap vet that can help like Colon,etc. I'm also fine with going after a Headley who will help us both this year and beyond. It's just a fine line you have to walk, yes DD should be doing what he can to improve the team but the future has to be kept in the forefront. I can't support trading off say a Matusz, Avery, and Schoop for 2+ months of Greinke in what will likely be an unsuccessful playoff run. SO yeah, if it took us losing coming out of the break to stop DD from making a trade like one above that's what I would prefer to happen.

Aside form the hoping we'll lose remark that's my basic opinion.

That said, I think DD has every intention of building a first class minor league system, unlike the system of failure we have had for 14 years. This is his professed strong point and he has already made strides to that effect imo. It seems odd that people are criticising him for selling the farm and not having the big picture because of minor deals and trades that have not even been made yet. I might take issue with some of these future trades, but I'm not sure why everybody is sweating this so much when we're not talking about Machado or Bundy.

Here's a question. If attendance stays up 23% for most of the rest of the year, how much is that worth in dollar terms? How many new players can we acquire with that additional revenue?

[Vertigo]

Really? The mindset(s) of the fans has made the Orioles bad for 14 years? The mindset(s) of the fans will ensure that the Orioles remain bad?

That is not at all what I suggested in my post.

[Flacco Machado]

For me, I just think DD really wants to put his imprint on this team. Anybody that has been out of league for 9 years, that has gained the kind of power and authority that he has now, has that desire. A team that has had 14 staight years of losing is right in the middle of a playoff chase, and he is at the helm.

I think he wants to make a splash, and I think it's going to be a big one. Whether it's Garza, Headley, etc., we will most likely have to give up Matusz and Arrieta, if we are not going to trade Bundy or Machado. Again, at the end of the day, it depends on who we acquire. But, if the Guthrie trade and bullpen signings are any indication of DD and Buck's talent evaluation, then I have full faith in them if/when some big trades go down.

Just to go back to the OP, I said this in a seperate thread, back on June 26th.

[El Gordo]

Hardy, Markakis and Reynolds are all in their late 20s, you usually don't see guys make major strides right around age 30 (at least not since the steroid era). It's not even known whether Reynolds will be back next year. I'll concede Arrieta, Matusz, Britton and perhaps Tillman. But I wouldn't consider any of them (aside from Britton) part of our "core".

Given their career numbers they are all capable of better. This year they are all below that, so they could all improve just by equalling their career averages.Wieters' ceiling is much higher than his current production.

[MrOrange82]

That is not at all what I suggested in my post.

Then you should realize/acknowledge that, in large part, it's stupid FO/scouting/player development moves that put the Orioles in their current predicament. Making a different kind of stupid move (i.e., acquiring "name" players at potentially steep costs) doesn't, by virtue of being different, necessarily make the move any better than those that led to the O's be bad in the first place.

Hesitance and concern are perfectly reasonable, defensible reactions.

[Vertigo]

Then you should realize/acknowledge that, in large part, it's stupid FO/scouting/player development moves that put the Orioles in their current predicament. Making a different kind of stupid move (i.e., acquiring "name" players at potentially steep costs) doesn't, by virtue of being different, necessarily make the move any better than those that led to the O's be bad in the first place.

Hesitance and concern are perfectly reasonable, defensible reactions.

In that case, I'd say the real debate is what we consider to be too steep of a cost to pay.