TT: The Orioles are in a freefall, is there a way out?

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/blog/tonys-take/418/the-orioles-are-in-a-freefall-is-there-a-way-out

[Can_of_corn]

I don't see a way to salvage this season without compromising the future.

I have been looking for the past month.

On the bright side I do feel a lot more optimistic about 2013 then I did about 2012 when they were breaking camp.

[NCRaven]

My fear is that if we wait 2 weeks to find out where we are before we trade, it will be too late. I think that adding a Grienke and Headley, who would help in both the short and long terms (if you re-sign Grienke) would make a huge difference to this team. But, if we fall under .500, they'll have an excuse to do nothing. We'll go into the off-season with the same 3B and starting pitching situations (Arrieta and Matusz continuing to be huge questionmarks two years after they should be established starters - neither is particularly young anymore). Add 1B and LF to the black holes in our defensive/hitting issues and it becomes a much harder off season than it needs to be. If it weren't for the stellar performance by the bullpen most of the first half, this team would already be 5 games under.

[The Rick]

If Hammel is out for any extended period of time, then no. If he only misses a few starts, I still don't like our chances, but it's possible. I think the goal needs to be to build to win next year and beyond. We shouldn't be buyers unless the pieces we're buying will help us for several years (Upton/Headley). We shouldn't necessarily be sellers either though.

[The Rick]

My fear is that if we wait 2 weeks to find out where we are before we trade, it will be too late. I think that adding a Grienke and Headley, who would help in both the short and long terms (if you re-sign Grienke) would make a huge difference to this team. But, if we fall under .500, they'll have an excuse to do nothing. We'll go into the off-season with the same 3B and starting pitching situations (Arrieta and Matusz continuing to be huge questionmarks two years after they should be established starters - neither is particularly young anymore). Add 1B and LF to the black holes in our defensive/hitting issues and it becomes a much harder off season than it needs to be. If it weren't for the stellar performance by the bullpen most of the first half, this team would already be 5 games under.

This situation with Hammel should be a factor. Grienke just puts us back where we were before if Hammel is out (minus some good talent we had to trade to get him).

[LookitsPuck]

The only way this season can be salvaged is IF:

Hammel is not injured

Chen pitches well

One of Gonzalez, Tillman, or Britton pitches well

That's to basically hover around .500.

We'd need 2 of Gonzo, Tilly, or Britton to pitch well to contend.

I really think the offense will come around. It won't be an offense that scores 5+ a game, but it certainly is the kind that can (and should) score 4+.

[NCRaven]

This situation with Hammel should be a factor. Grienke just puts us back where we were before if Hammel is out (minus some good talent we had to trade to get him).

Arrieta was drafted by Milwaukee out of high school, so he could be a lead piece in the trade. I'd only make the deal if we had a chance to sign him to an extension. Grienke would, in that situation, help both this year and in the future. If Matusz, a San Diego State alum went to SD in a Headley deal, we'd settle 3B for the next 2 seasons after this year, at the least. Machado should be up sometime next year. Having a rotation next year of Grienke, Hammel, Chen, Britton and Gonzalez/Tillman, with Bundy and Gausman on the farm wouldn't be the worst situation. And, that is without DD adding a pitcher during the off season.

I just wish they'd get Davis out of LF and let Avery and Hoes have a real chance to show what they can do. I'm tired of watching the parade of clowns at 3B. And a 1Bman whose only apparent value is his ability to take a walk every now and then is getting to be a real pain. Put a real outfielder with a possible future in LF. Move Davis back to 1B where he was hitting, at least. Give Thome some more time, I still think he'll hit enough to justify the deal. And, don't be afraid to include Arreita or Matusz in deals that could benefit us over the long-term.

[Lucky Jim]

I posted this is Roy's thread, but I'll re-post, because I think it's pertinent. I wrote this on 5/18:

There are multiple points of regression in our start, and multiple possible points of improvement. Our Nos. 1-2 starters (Hammel, Chen) will not keep up what they've been doing, even if they remain good, but our Nos. 3-5 (Arrieta, Matusz and maybe Britton) could end up being much better than they've been. Our HR rate will definitely drop - Hardy and Jones (and maybe even Wieters, Betemit, and Markakis) aren't likely to keep hitting HRs at their current rate. But we haven't been good with RISP and we have some untapped potential (Reynolds). Finally, our defense has been erratic, but our defensive efficiency is high. If we can manage to cut down on the errors, this could become a strength.

So, a tightrope is appropriate. I mean, there's a small chance that all that's gone well continues at this rate in some kind of anomalous, Haley's Comet-like occurrence. But I'm mostly just hopeful we can swing the above changes.

Every point of regression happened and not a single point of improvement happened. Plus injuries. I don't think there's a way to turn it around and DD better not mortgage the future for buckets to bail out a half-sunk ship.

[Malike]

I posted this is Roy's thread, but I'll re-post, because I think it's pertinent. I wrote this on 5/18:

Every point of regression happened and not a single point of improvement happened. Plus injuries. I don't think there's a way to turn it around and DD better not mortgage the future for buckets to bail out a half-sunk ship.

This.

There is no realistic chance of salvaging the season for a playoff run. Its time to get some guys some playing time to see what you have for the future and hang onto what little assets we have.

[baltfan]

Mark Reynolds' play has really killed this team. The fact that he can't play third has necessitated moving Davis off of first and putting another guy who can't play third at third. His lack of power is deprives the team of something it truly needs right now.

If Reynolds had picked it up like he did last year about May or so, this team would be in much better shape. They just can't have Reynolds struggle this badly. The only regular first baseman that he has a higher OPS than are Hosmer, Smoak, and Pena. That just won't cut it. Two of the three of them are much better in the field than Reynolds.

[El Gordo]

This is baseball, nothing is certain. We have 6 SP with potential, any or all of them could step up, or not.That's the key factor. I find it hard to believe that Hardy and Reynolds will continue as they are given their track records. Davis is a question mark given his track record, as is Thome given his age. I am confident DD will pick up a bat and a SP who can help us without mortgaging the future. Whether that enables us to contend or not remains to be seen. But I am not ready to consider the season lost after losing a game that very well could have been a one run game if Hammel hadn't been injured.

[Lucky Jim]

This is baseball, nothing is certain. We have 6 SP with potential, any or all of them could step up, or not.That's the key factor. I find it hard to believe that Hardy and Reynolds will continue as they are given their track records, Davis is a question mark given his track record, as is Thome given his age. I am confident DD will pick up a bat and a SP who can help us without mortgaging the future. Whether that enables us to contend or not remaains to be seen. But I am not ready to consider the season lost after losing a game that very well could have been a one run game if Hammel hadn't been injured.

I agree with this. Don't get me wrong, I'm not giving up, other than in the "good money after bad" way. My idea of future value (prospects) may be broader than yours, but we agree at some level.

[24fps]

This is baseball, nothing is certain. We have 6 SP with potential, any or all of them could step up, or not.That's the key factor. I find it hard to believe that Hardy and Reynolds will continue as they are given their track records. Davis is a question mark given his track record, as is Thome given his age. I am confident DD will pick up a bat and a SP who can help us without mortgaging the future. Whether that enables us to contend or not remains to be seen. But I am not ready to consider the season lost after losing a game that very well could have been a one run game if Hammel hadn't been injured.

I'm not confident that Reynolds is going to snap out of it, but the bolded part is where I stand as well. DD strikes me as someone who's perfectly comfortable operating in a changing environment.

[The Rick]

This is baseball, nothing is certain. We have 6 SP with potential, any or all of them could step up, or not.That's the key factor. I find it hard to believe that Hardy and Reynolds will continue as they are given their track records. Davis is a question mark given his track record, as is Thome given his age. I am confident DD will pick up a bat and a SP who can help us without mortgaging the future. Whether that enables us to contend or not remains to be seen. But I am not ready to consider the season lost after losing a game that very well could have been a one run game if Hammel hadn't been injured.

I am certain that if Hammel is out for the year, we won't be in contention. How anyone couldn't be is mind boggling to me.

[waroriole]

I don't see a way to salvage this season without compromising the future.

I have been looking for the past month.

On the bright side I do feel a lot more optimistic about 2013 then I did about 2012 when they were breaking camp.

I agree with this. What worries me is that Buck and DD don't feel this way. I'm worried that they're going to move an important piece for a guy that won't give us as much future value in a failed attempt to win this year.

The future does look bright though, as long as we hang on to most of our own guys. Schoop and Machado should fill two holes in the IF for very cheap. Bundy should fill a hole at the TOR for cheap. Between Hoes, Avery and Urrutia we should have 2 ML OF.

I think this offseason is the time to make a push for a big time FA. Greinke would be great. With he and Bundy atop our rotation, and Hammel and Chen in the middle of it, we could have a very solid pitching staff. Of course, we would probably be one .850+ hitter away from true contention.......unless Wieters finally turns into that guy.