Anyone else a little worried about Jim Johnson?

[Can_of_corn]

Who said anything about being emotionally vested? Or about the historically changeable nature of relief pitchers' performance?

The truth is this doesn't really happen to the very best closers. No one, that I know of, has questioned if Johnson is a good closer or not. But there was a thread a couple weeks ago asking if we should trade Johnson--my take was that, yes, his value is probably the highest it will ever get, so from a philosophical standpoint it makes a lot of sense even if it's not practical--and a lot of people responded with something to the effect of "no, he's too good". That's the real question here: is he too good?

If you want to say this doesn't matter, that's fine. But for me there's a difference between a closer with a 1.15 ERA and one with a 2.60 ERA. There might even be a difference of about 2-4 wins there (not by WAR standards, mind you). I don't think it's wise to just write that off with such a simple response as "he's a relief pitcher, this happens."

I'm repeating myself here, but if Johnson is not as good as he was in the first half it does matter.

Sure it does, more season to season but yea, anyone can have back to back bad appearances.

[olehippi]

I'm not really worried about Jim Johnson, but I was really upset with Showalter for putting Johnson into a 14-5 blowout just to get him some work!!! Sorry, but that was a BS move, which I'm sure Johnson didn't appreciate either.......and especially after he was lit up like a fireworks show by the Twins hitters. Quite honestly, I lost quite a bit of respect for Showalter last night, and have really begun to question his supposed great managing skills.

[Flash- bd]

Sure it does, more season to season but yea, anyone can have back to back bad appearances.

I'm clearly not doing a good job of getting my point across. Obviously "anyone can have back to back bad appearances." If he just has these two bad appearances and reverts back to his dominant form, these two outings will have meant literally nothing, as they didn't change the outcome in either game. But the very best closers do not often have two appearances where they get hit around that much. In fact, last year the top 3 closers in ERA didn't allow more than the 5 ER in a month, much less two performances. No one allowed more than 6 R in a month, Johnson allowed 8 R in two games.

More to the point, I offered up some reasons why his struggles could be the beginning of a trend or systematic. That is really what I was trying to get at. Again, these two performances mean nothing if they're followed by spectacular results as earlier in the year. But fact is Johnson got beat up in these last two outings, and he didn't just get beat up just because. There are reasons, and I was trying to explore those a bit..

[Can_of_corn]

I'm clearly not doing a good job of getting my point across. Obviously "anyone can have back to back bad appearances." If he just has these two bad appearances and reverts back to his dominant form, these two outings will have meant literally nothing, as they didn't change the outcome in either game. But the very best closers do not often have two appearances where they get hit around that much. In fact, last year the top 3 closers in ERA didn't allow more than the 5 ER in a month, much less two performances. No one allowed more than 6 R in a month, Johnson allowed 8 R in two games.

More to the point, I offered up some reasons why his struggles could be the beginning of a trend or systematic. That is really what I was trying to get at. Again, these two performances mean nothing if they're followed by spectacular results as earlier in the year. But fact is Johnson got beat up in these last two outings, and he didn't just get beat up just because. There are reasons, and I was trying to explore those a bit..

I am, obviously, one of those that thought he was outpitching his peripherals earlier so his current struggles are not that surprising or alarming to me. I do hope he gets squared away as it will keep his trade value high.

[TheBee]

He was actually up in the zone with his fastball in the All Star game, too. He just got away with it. No. I'm not worried. Every athlete has a bad stretch or a slump. I actually believe the fact that Johnson does one thing so well and often helps his overall consistency. The real issue is getting him a lead to protect.

[TheBee]

Good outing. Good win. Two easy grounder outs.

[theobird]

I am, obviously, one of those that thought he was outpitching his peripherals earlier so his current struggles are not that surprising or alarming to me. I do hope he gets squared away as it will keep his trade value high.

My thoughts exactly. We have a guy in Strop to plug into the closer role. I want to see JJ traded for a nice return, and he will bring very nice return from the Angels or the Mets.

[Flash- bd]

Good outing. Good win. Two easy grounder outs.

Good outing, yes, but nothing convincing. Threw a belt-high FB to Plouffe with the first pitch which was served into right, the Twins then gave him an out on a bunt, and he proceeded to throw four 2-seemers to two hitters he really should be retiring (Butera and Carroll) for two outs.

[scOtt]

Who said anything about being emotionally vested? Or about the historically changeable nature of relief pitchers' performance?

The truth is this doesn't really happen to the very best closers. No one, that I know of, has questioned if Johnson is a good closer or not. But there was a thread a couple weeks ago asking if we should trade Johnson--my take was that, yes, his value is probably the highest it will ever get, so from a philosophical standpoint it makes a lot of sense even if it's not practical--and a lot of people responded with something to the effect of "no, he's too good". That's the real question here: is he too good?

If you want to say this doesn't matter, that's fine. But for me there's a difference between a closer with a 1.15 ERA and one with a 2.60 ERA. There might even be a difference of about 2-4 wins there (not by WAR standards, mind you). I don't think it's wise to just write that off with such a simple response as "he's a relief pitcher, this happens."

I'm repeating myself here, but if Johnson is not as good as he was in the first half it does matter.

Eric Gagne.

[mark_beckens]

The truth is this doesn't really happen to the very best closers.

What meds are you on? Seriously? Better yet, what are you smoking and can you pass some to the left?

[Flash- bd]

Eric Gagne.

But the very best closers do not often have two appearances where they get hit around that much. In fact, last year the top 3 closers in ERA didn't allow more than the 5 ER in a month, much less two performances. No one allowed more than 6 R in a month, Johnson allowed 8 R in two games.

This year, none of the top 4 closers in ERA (Kimbrel, Rodney, Soriano, Broxton) have allowed more than 3 ER in a month. They have allowed a total of 23 ER combined on the year, just under 6 per, or less than one more than Johnson allowed in two games.

This isn't meant to be a shot at Johnson. I just don't think people realize what "elite" really means for a closer. Every year there are 2-4 guys who go a whole season allowing about double what JJ allowed in two games.

Again, this really has nothing to do with the initial discussion, but you guys are questioning my claims, I'm just backing them up.

What meds are you on? Seriously? Better yet, what are you smoking and can you pass some to the left?

Fair question (). Let's just say there's a reason I've been registered here since 2007 yet 95% of my 600 some-odd posts have come in the last month and a half.

[crissfan172]

This year, none of the top 4 closers in ERA (Kimbrel, Rodney, Soriano, Broxton) have allowed more than 3 ER in a month. They have allowed a total of 23 ER combined on the year, just under 6 per, or less than one more than Johnson allowed in two games.

This isn't meant to be a shot at Johnson. I just don't think people realize what "elite" really means for a closer. Every year there are 2-4 guys who go a whole season allowing about double what JJ allowed in two games.

Again, this really has nothing to do with the initial discussion, but you guys are questioning my claims, I'm just backing them up.

The problem is that you're zeroing in on way too small of a sample size. You're saying that he's not a great closer because he's allowed 11 ER this year compared to the best closers which have allowed, on average, 6 ER? Well...about a week ago, he had allowed 3 ER on the year, which would make him better than those guys. For all we know...those guys could have a bad week like Johnson had. If you want to make an argument based on peripherals, fine, but the argument you're trying to make here focuses way too much on 2 appearances.

[Frobby]

Good outing, yes, but nothing convincing. Threw a belt-high FB to Plouffe with the first pitch which was served into right, the Twins then gave him an out on a bunt, and he proceeded to throw four 2-seemers to two hitters he really should be retiring (Butera and Carroll) for two outs.

I thought he looked pretty good. The pitch Plouffe hit was up in the zone, but he kind of squirted it into the outfield. The hit practically came to a dead stop when it landed. Johnson's location was good the rest of the inning.

[Tx Oriole]

His strikeout rate is pretty terrible so far this year. That usually doesn't bode well for a closer when you get to the later part of the year.

He very well could be falling apart before are eyes. Or maybe he just had two bad games in a row. Who knows. But at this point, I almost don't even think it matters.

I've never been more depressed as an Orioles fan than I am right now. Losing I can handle, we've been losers for a long long time. It's the teases of relevance followed by months of freefalling that end up depressing the crap out of me. Year after year after year of false starts and horrible collapses. This year is no different than any of the rest.[/quote

Dont jump ship yet. We still have the rest of the year. Maybe they will improve. Not saying they will make the playoffs but not giving up on the team now.

[TheBee]

Good outing, yes, but nothing convincing. Threw a belt-high FB to Plouffe with the first pitch which was served into right, the Twins then gave him an out on a bunt, and he proceeded to throw four 2-seemers to two hitters he really should be retiring (Butera and Carroll) for two outs.

Let's keep this simple and not go off into other arguments right away. How is a good outing not convincing? He easily saved a 2-1 game, and your stated concern was that he may be in a tailspin - at the beginning of a negative trend. You are trying too hard to make a point. Jim Johnson has saved 27 of 29 and anyone with eyes knows that last night's performance was textbook Jim Johnson. He gave up a single, the Twins played for one run (which is often a sign of respect), he didn't spiral out of control, he got two easy grounders after the failed bunt to end the game. No runner was in scoring position. He is not in a downward spiral. He proved, yet again, that he can effectively save our leads.

Now, on a side note. I actually agree that relief pitching, in general, is very inconsistent...especially from year to year. If our closer was either Broxton or Rodney, who you brought up, I actually would be much more apt to be looking to trade them if we fell back in the wildcard race. Broxton's blown twice as many saves as Johnson in less attempts, and Rodney had 17 saves while blowing 11 in 2010 and 2011. Each relies on a second pitch to be effective - 30% sliders and changeups respectively. They are typical closers, and I don't mean that as a compliment. Johnson, is a pretty unique case. The last sinkerball closer everybody points to was Derek Lowe. However, his sinker's velocity was in the high 80's while Johnson's is mid 90's. This is the beginning of another argument, one I've made before. Regardless, your worries that Johnson was beginning a period of ineffectiveness should've been eased by last night's performance in a 1 run game.