Anyone else a little worried about Jim Johnson?

[weams]

Well, there is his second save in as many days, and an easy inning at that. Both one-run saves, too.

I guess he is elite.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I think the problem is that he hasn't been used enough. One appearance a week isn't going to keep you in game shape.

In general though, closers are kinda overrated. They're nice to have when you have a good one but never worth overpaying for.

You realize he leads the league in saves right? He gets used plenty

[Mondo Trasho]

You realize he leads the league in saves right? He gets used plenty

I mean lately. His struggles lately. Not the last two nights of course, but if you look at the nights where he struggles with command it's usually after he's gone a few games without pitching.

[Flash- bd]

Ok. No attitude intended. I will admit that I when I am evaluating a successful sinkerball closer I'm going to be mainly basing it on whether he is throwing strikes and not walking people, getting a high percentage of groundballs, and not blowing saves. He is doing all those things very well. Hell, Brandon McCarthy got written up in ESPN the Mag for producing a GB% 20% less than Johnson's. The LD%, though slightly up is still well below the 20% league average, isn't that right? His homerun rate is up, but his actual flyball rate is down and his groundball rate is up. And we are talking about allowing a total of 3 homers in 40 appearances, right? So, sarcasm not included, I guess I'm not schooled on advanced metrics enough to be as worried as you are. What I'm seeing is a sinkerballer doing exactly what I've always believed a premier sinkerballer would aspire to.

Just to kind of wrap up our discussion, you're absolutely right to cast doubt over the worth of those advanced metrics over such a small sample, esp. one like HR/FB, which is why I tried to kind of stay away from a statistical discussion here. That said, LD% is still pretty worthwhile, I think, over that sample, as is F-strike, so those are worth citing. As you rightly point out he's well under the league average--but then again, we'd expect that out of a closer, wouldn't we? And out of an elite closer we might expect a little lower than 16.5%, though that's definitely a good number. I do think the comparison to last year in those categories is worthwhile, though, because as I discussed in the OP there seems to be see a noticeable trend developing: JJ is much preferring his sinker to his secondary pitches--and that, honestly, was one of the main ideas I've had about JJ most of this year and one of the main ideas I had in mind when I started this thread. As (I hope) I've made clear, I think the statistics and what my eyes see both support the idea that he's better off when he mixes in his other pitches--and when he does so, I do believe he is truly dominant.

Today was good. Threw all sinkers again except for one change (89 MPH) but his location was much better after he worried me a bit with the first two pitches. Huge save. It's amazing--and somewhat pathetic--how this team doesn't know any other way to win than to really sneak it out.

EDIT: er, squeak it out? I think I got my cliche wrong.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I mean lately. His struggles lately. Not the last two nights of course, but if you look at the nights where he struggles with command it's usually after he's gone a few games without pitching.

Fair enough, but in his defense, he's "struggled" only 2/3 times this whole season. One of them was due to bad defense and the other in a total blowout. It's pretty typical that closers get lit up in none closing situations. I can't explain it, but we've all seen it a thousand times.

He seems to have righted the ship.

[Flash- bd]

Loved the way he mixed his pitches today. Resulted in some really, really weak swings and the first couple bad-looking swings-and-misses we've seen off of JJ in a while.

[stef]

Am now.

[Purple Oriole]

We should hurry up and trade him. lol

[joedogg9999]

Have more faith in kevin gregg now

[isestrex]

I didn't see the 9th inning but I heard it on the radio. According to Joe and Fred, JJ's sinker was terrific tonight but he just had some balls squirt through instead of going to fielders.

I know that's not the whole story, but can anyone who watched the game confirm that he at least looked like he had good stuff tonight?

[wingman123]

I didn't see the 9th inning but I heard it on the radio. According to Joe and Fred, JJ's sinker was terrific tonight but he just had some balls squirt through instead of going to fielders.

I know that's not the whole story, but can anyone who watched the game confirm that he at least looked like he had good stuff tonight?

He was throwing belt high balls quite a bit. If the Derek Norris lucky bouncing ground ball was fielded the Orioles might have won this game. The command of his pitches was the biggest issue.

[mark_beckens]

I didn't see the 9th inning but I heard it on the radio. According to Joe and Fred, JJ's sinker was terrific tonight but he just had some balls squirt through instead of going to fielders.

I know that's not the whole story, but can anyone who watched the game confirm that he at least looked like he had good stuff tonight?

He was getting squeezed for one. He was having to throw more 4 seamers which were up in the zone. 2 of the ground ball hits were not hit hard, just right spot, one bounced off the front of the plate over Reynolds head, was a DP, end of game! Weeks hit it off the end of the bat, opposite way, hit on the line. Just one of those nights.

[mark_beckens]

He was throwing belt high balls quite a bit. If the Derek Norris lucky bouncing ground ball was fielded the Orioles might have won this game. The command of his pitches was the biggest issue.

He had to, he was getting squeezed!

Last I knew, belt high was a strike!

[Flash- bd]

I didn't see the 9th inning but I heard it on the radio. According to Joe and Fred, JJ's sinker was terrific tonight but he just had some balls squirt through instead of going to fielders.

I know that's not the whole story, but can anyone who watched the game confirm that he at least looked like he had good stuff tonight?

Had good stuff, but as I said in the OP of this thread he's way too reliant on his sinker (allowing hitters to sit on it) and his command with it is not good enough to do that. And, well, a closer who can't strike anybody out will have this happen to him more than a good closer should. It's one of the reasons almost all good closers can strike hitters out...

He didn't have good luck tonight, but he also wasn't exactly fooling anybody, nor has he done so in a while.

[mark_beckens]

Had good stuff, but as I said in the OP of this thread he's way too reliant on his sinker (allowing hitters to sit on it) and his command with it is not good enough to do that. And, well, a closer who can't strike anybody out will have this happen to him more than a good closer should. It's one of the reasons almost all good closers can strike hitters out...

He didn't have good luck tonight, but he also wasn't exactly fooling anybody, nor has he done so in a while.

It's happen what, 3 times this year, one cause of an error? The ball Norris hit should have been a DP, if Reynolds is able to reach it game over!