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Zach Tonight


OFFNY

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Yeah, this is a pretty fair take but it is worth noting he just didn't have very good stuff tonight. His FB was moving less and had less velocity than against Cleveland (when it was really phenomenal, IMO) and his breaking ball and change similarly suffered. His command wasn't very good either. All in all, he had a major off-night yet still didn't pitch that bad, and as you note, probably "deserved" better than his line.

I'm pretty confident about his future outlook.

Prior (CLE):

Pitch Type 	Avg 	Max 	H-Break V-Break Count 	Strikes / % 	Whiffs / % 	SNIPs / % 	Linear WeightsFA (Fastball)	88.00	88	6.49	1.28	1	0 / 0.00%	0 / 0.00% 	0 / 0.00%	0.0421FF (FourSeam)	92.82	93.9	6.08	6.80	26	15 / 57.69%	1 / 3.85% 	12 / 52.17%	-0.8539CH (Changeup)	86.81	87.7	8.40	3.45	10	8 / 80.00%	2 / 20.00% 	5 / 71.43%	-1.0637SL (Slider)	83.32	87.5	-1.24	-0.18	17	10 / 58.82%	1 / 5.88% 	9 / 56.25%	0.5089FT (TwoSeam)	92.90	94.6	9.33	5.07	50	31 / 62.00%	3 / 6.00% 	21 / 52.50%	-0.7513

Tonight:

Pitch Type 	Avg 	Max  	H-Break V-Break Count 	    Str% 	Whiffs / % 	SNIPs / % 	Linear WeightsFF (FourSeam)	91.45	93.1	5.21	8.63	29	15 / 51.72%	1 / 3.45% 	10 / 41.67%	5.1180CH (Changeup)	85.44	87.6	7.92	5.42	14	5 / 35.71%	3 / 21.43% 	4 / 30.77%	-0.1896SL (Slider)	81.42	84.5	-3.58	-0.59	19	10 / 52.63%	1 / 5.26% 	9 / 50.00%	-0.2586FT (TwoSeam)	91.71	93.4	9.02	6.14	39	26 / 66.67%	1 / 2.56% 	12 / 48.00%	-2.6101

Seems like he was down a 1-2MPH. Not sure the movement was significantly different. Any analysis would have to account for the possibility that, given the tight strike zone, that may have been a side-effect, rather than a cause of his struggles. I think that BD's assessment is fair. Looks like his SL might have had a bit more movement tonight.

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Look at the difference in location - here's his plot from the CLE game:

location.php-pitchSel=502154&game=gid_2012_07_22_balmlb_clemlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif

The good thing about Britton--as these plots show--is that when he misses, he tends to miss low. It's never good to be wild, but so far he's had two pretty clear off-nights and allowed 10 ER in 9 2/3 IP, and that's with all 4 of his stranded runners being allowed to score.

Knowing what we know about what an Arrieta off-night looks like, or a Matusz one (to a lesser extent, maybe), that's not all that bad.

Of course, he can't keep having off-nights, but in the overall ERA picture if you're minimizing the damage when you're really off your overall numbers will probably turn out alright.

EDIT: I can see how some might see it as kind of common sense to assume Britton misses down (his ball sinks, he should be missing down, no?) but being O's fans I think we can think of our fair share of counter-examples to that idea (Mike DeJean, Mike Timlin, and even--to a lesser extent--Jim Johnson coming to mind).

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The good thing about Britton--as these plots show--is that when he misses, he tends to miss low. It's never good to be wild, but so far he's had two pretty clear off-nights and allowed 10 ER in 9 2/3 IP, and that's with all 4 of his stranded runners being allowed to score.

Are you saying that is supposed to make us feel good? Wow, you have low standards.

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I'll say this, Britton had squat for the first couple of innings. He was getting raked. But he battled back and got in his groove again later on. There's something to be said for that. It's sort of the silver lining of last night, I guess. Britton left with a chance for the win, and when you consider how awful he was at the start (and yes, the usually dormant bats get most of the credit for that), I'm glad he battled back. He clearly needs to step his game up, but getting 5 2/3 out of him in the end when he seemed to not have it early on was ok.

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Consistency is the only thing that matters in the long run. Yes potential is nice, but consistency is what matters. Any of the starters including Britton can shut down an MLB team. That's why they are in the big leagues. They can all do it. It's just that if you are any good you do it with some consistency. So if anybody ever tells of an obscure date where a pitcher dominated just look and them and shake your head. People fail to realize that any of these guys can dominate a lineup in the MLB.

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Bottom line: Zach needs a good outing in his next start or he probably get demoted.

For who?

As you know, I am a supporter of Brian Matusz's long term value, but if the O's don't keep him in the minors for at least two more starts I will be irritated. Keeping him down there through August 6 means an extra year of team control over Matusz, and that means at least two more starts at Norfolk no matter how he pitches his next time out. And, I wouldn't recall him after that unless his next two starts are very good.

Arrieta has been very so-so in Norfolk, got hit hard yesterday and needs at least a few more outings down there.

I don't see Steve Johnson or Jason Berken being better than Britton at the major league level.

Another thing, we have to keep an eye on Gonzalez. A bad start from him next time could put him at the bottom of the pecking order in the current rotation. Or Hunter for that matter. A lot changes week by week around here because only Chen has had any degree of consistency.

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For who?

As you know, I am a supporter of Brian Matusz's long term value, but if the O's don't keep him in the minors for at least two more starts I will be irritated. Keeping him down there through August 6 means an extra year of team control over Matusz, and that means at least two more starts at Norfolk no matter how he pitches his next time out. And, I wouldn't recall him after that unless his next two starts are very good.

Arrieta has been very so-so in Norfolk, got hit hard yesterday and needs at least a few more outings down there.

I don't see Steve Johnson or Jason Berken being better than Britton at the major league level.

Another thing, we have to keep an eye on Gonzalez. A bad start from him next time could put him at the bottom of the pecking order in the current rotation. Or Hunter for that matter. A lot changes week by week around here because only Chen has had any degree of consistency.

Britton is probably going to make his next start on Aug 1st vs the Yankees. Depending on what happens in that start it could determine if he stays or is sent down.

Your Matisz contract issue can be solved other ways. Hammel is going to return and the roster will expand September 1st. They can send Matusz down for a start then. They can even wait until next year to have him spend time in the minors. That does not have to happen in the middle of pennant race. Heck, the Brewers sent Hardy down in his 5th year.

Gonzalez was sick during his last start. He probably pitches better on his next start but you are right Gonzo or Brttton or both of them may need to be demoted. Hunter has pitched well in his last two starts, He will not be sent down because of one bad start.

Steve Johnson may be pitching as well or better then any of the unestablished starters. There is really no reason not to try him in the rotation if other starters falter.

So I see Matusz and Steve Johnson as starters that are ready for a trial in the rotation if they are needed.

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Bottom line: Zach needs a good outing in his next start or he probably get demoted.

You also also say that Matusz "just moved ahead of Britton" for the 5th starter spot on July 7th after Britton's start that night with the Tides. And that was 3 weeks ago.

Matusz just moved in front of Britton for the 5th starter spot after the break.
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You also also say that Matusz "just moved ahead of Britton" for the 5th starter spot on July 7th after Britton's start that night with the Tides. And that was 3 weeks ago.

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You also also say that Matusz "just moved ahead of Britton" for the 5th starter spot on July 7th after Britton's start that night with the Tides. And that was 3 weeks ago.

I think that was true at the time I wrote it but Zach pitched well and got the promotion.

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I think that was true at the time I wrote it but Zach pitched well and got the promotion.

I know that that's what you thought. But you wrote it as if it as a fact, as though you had some inside information on the matter, as you're doing now by saying that Britton will "probably get demoted" if he doesn't have a good outing. It would help if you put "I think" or "I believe" in front of these proclamations.

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