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Tillman gave up 1 ER, yes, in 1 IP, if Reynolds makes a routine play. He also gave up 1 ER in yesterday's 1st inning. But go ahead, fault him for all 7 of those runs-- he'd still have 15 2/3 IP with 8 ER allowed. If that's your number in a stretch where you have your worst start of your season, your floor is relatively high.

How many hard hit balls were given up after the one error? Tillman fell apart.

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Right, so no pitcher has a high floor, then, including Greinke, Hamels, Peavy or anyone else we might sign. We should enter the season with 10 viable SPs.

All pitchers are inherently risky. Obviously though, to compare the careers/track records of the group you mentioned w the Orioles group, is decidely in favor of the former, no?

I know people are going to interpret me as being rosy, here. Trust me, I'm not unaware of the way these assertions will come to many people as decidedly optimistic. I don't care though, because I'm quite certain they're true.

Tillman gave up 1 ER, yes, in 1 IP, if Reynolds makes a routine play. He also gave up 1 ER in yesterday's 1st inning. But go ahead, fault him for all 7 of those runs-- he'd still have 15 2/3 IP with 8 ER allowed. If that's your number in a stretch where you have your worst start of your season, your floor is relatively high.

It's three starts. He looks better. He hasn't proven anything yet.

BTW, sometimes you have to get 4 outs in an inning. Sometimes an ump misses a call. Sometimes a broken bat flare falls in. Sometimes you fielders let you down. It happens all the time. You can't meltdown as a result and be completely free of blame. Regardless of Reynolds' misplay, Tillman pitched like absolute, unacceptable s--- in 1/3 of his starts this year.

So yes, he looks better, but it's WAY too early to be anointing him anything, but a young pitcher attempting, yet again, to establish himself.

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How is 90+ ERA+ not a high floor? This has the potential to be a silly semantic argument, but seriously? I think common sense will tell you that to say someone's absolute floor is 90-100 ERA+ is to say they have a high floor.

You're right, and a debate over semantics is one in which I do not wish to engage. Suffice it to say I do not consider below average to be "pretty high."

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All pitchers are inherently risky. Obviously though, to compare the careers/track records of the group you mentioned w the Orioles group, is decidely in favor of the former, no?

Sure, but those are 3 of the top pitchers in the game. It doesn't invalidate my argument about the floors of those four.

It's three starts. He looks better. He hasn't proven anything yet.

BTW, sometimes you have to get 4 outs in an inning. Sometimes an ump misses a call. Sometimes a broken bat flare falls in. Sometimes you fielders let you down. It happens all the time. You can't meltdown as a result and be completely free of blame. Regardless of Reynolds' misplay, Tillman pitched like absolute, unacceptable s--- in 1/3 of his starts this year.

So yes, he looks better, but it's WAY too early to be anointing him anything, but a young pitcher attempting, yet again, to establish himself.

Don't disagree with any of this. But who's anointing here? I'm projecting/predicting and making what I think are very educated/sound guesses/predictions. What do we do on here--or what does a GM do, for that matter--if not that?

EDIT: sangar: floor. We're talking about floors. Cole Hamels has a floor of 97 ERA+. Jason Hammel's is 94-96. You can respond to this if you want and I won't respond again so we don't spiral into a silly argument here, but again, common sense...

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EDIT: sangar: floor. We're talking about floors. Cole Hamels has a floor of 97 ERA+. Jason Hammel's is 94-96. You can respond to this if you want and I won't respond again so we don't spiral into a silly argument here, but again, common sense...

Correct, common sense.

Common sense dictates that an ERA+ of 90, regardless if one considers it to be "pretty high," is not Tillman's floor.

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Correct, common sense.

Common sense dictates that an ERA+ of 90, regardless if one considers it to be "a pretty high floor," is not Tillman's floor.

Why? Is the current incarnation of Tillman that much more likely to collapse than Zack Greinke (seasons with ERA+ of 76, 100, 104) or Jake Peavy (ERA+ of 87 and 93 in his last two years, other years with 96, 96)? I just think some people take this whole realism thing too far. Nothing is certain with pitchers, we know that. But you have to draw the line of expectation/reasonable assumption somewhere.

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Why? Is the current incarnation of Tillman that much more likely to collapse than Zack Greinke (seasons with ERA+ of 76, 100, 104) or Jake Peavy (ERA+ of 87 and 93 in his last two years, other years with 96, 96)? I just think some people take this whole realism thing too far. Nothing is certain with pitchers, we know that. But you have to draw the line of expectation/reasonable assumption somewhere.

Absolutely, and I'm not trying to say you are wrong. Indeed, I hope you are right. Personally, I would draw Tillman's floor at AAA fodder. He certainly has the stuff to be a very good pitcher, but he has a long way to go before he makes a believer out of me. Too much inconsistency over too long of a time. The New Tillman brightens my enthusiasm, but it is also tempered by his history. If he continues pitching well through the end of the year, I will concede the point. Probably.

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Hammel-Chen-Tillman-Britton-Gonzalez: I don't know about next year, but I would bet that's who we're going to battle behind in September. I actually don't think DD is going to pay high for an elite rental this season and Buck said yesterday in a MASN interview that the current team is the one he wants, which has to mean the one he thinks he can win with.

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Gonzalez has made a very good impression on me.

Britton, I'm not sure why he even got called up. He's been okay so far, but I need to see more.

Tillman I seriously doubt. He can be great but I always feel like a collapse is around the corner. I need to see him be consistent.

Why? Is the current incarnation of Tillman that much more likely to collapse than Zack Greinke (seasons with ERA+ of 76, 100, 104) or Jake Peavy (ERA+ of 87 and 93 in his last two years, other years with 96, 96)?
Uh YES!! Because he's thrown two good starts! And with one disastrous start sandwiched between them! He's INCREDIBLY likely to "collapse," if it can even be called that since he hasn't proved anything yet.
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Gonzalez has made a very good impression on me.

Britton, I'm not sure why he even got called up. He's been okay so far, but I need to see more.

Tillman I seriously doubt. He can be great but I always feel like a collapse is around the corner. I need to see him be consistent.

Uh YES!! Because he's thrown two good starts! And with one disastrous start sandwiched between them! He's INCREDIBLY likely to "collapse," if it can even be called that since he hasn't proved anything yet.

This is all fair. It's also a bit myopic. He may well fail, but his stuff is completely different than what we've seen before. That should be acknowledged, but many hedging their bets don't seem to take it into account.

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All I'm saying is: he has to show me to make me a believer. I'm not ruling anything out, in fact I added him in the 16-team fantasy league I'm in, heh... but even just going back since he's been called up, results-wise, he's got a gem, then a dud in AA, then a DISASTER back in the bigs, then a strong outing. Very hot and cold. Regardless of what he's added or improved in his game, he still has got to prove he can put it together and sustain it up here.

edit: He did have a somewhat prolonged period of good pitching at AAA this year which got my hopes up, but bombing 2 of his last 4 starts have me skittish once again.

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The weird thing with Britton is I thought he should've been brought up ASAP this year because he was pretty solid last season in the majors. But then the Orioles say they want to see him master AAA first or whatever and then he really does NOT do that, and then he gets the call... Tillman on the other hand did quite a bit to earn a look.

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Hammel and Chen have shown they can pitch IMO. Britton, Gonzalez and Tillman still have to be evaluated. Pitch them this season and bring back whoever is productive. I really would like to see the O's find a way to get a legit TOR pitcher who can anchor the staff and let you use Hammel and Chen as your #2 and #3. If that's not possible then get two more guys who can produce at the Hammel/Chen type level and add a big bat in the lineup. I do think if the Orioles are willing to be aggressive they are getting closer to the point were some wisely spent money on the FA market could keep them more than competitive while guys like Bundy, Machado, Gausman, etc develop,

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Hammel-Chen-Tillman-Britton-Gonzalez: I don't know about next year, but I would bet that's [B]who we're going to battle behind in September.[/b] I actually don't think DD is going to buy high for an elite rental this season and Buck said yesterday in a MASN interview that the current team is the one he wants, which has to mean the one he thinks he can win with.

I think September may be interesting with the expanded rosters. Buck used a lot of pitchers during that month last year and had a great month. This year they can and will bring up Arietta, Matusz, Berken and others. Each of these guys have had varying degrees of success (and failures) at the ML level. However, the pitching staff will be very deep and perhaps deeper than most teams fighting for the wildcard. Before the O's make a big deal and lose some future pieces with a short term loaner, I hope they can hold it together for the next 5 weeks (a seemingly lifetime) and let the chips fall.

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