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I like Machado, but.....


baltfan

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These are Cal Ripken's stats in the minors. This is what an uber prospect looks like.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff AB 2B 3B HR RBI SB. BA OBP SLG OPS

1980 19 Cha SOUL AA BAL 522 28 5 25 78 4. .276 .367 .492 .859

1981 20 Roch IL AAA BAL 507 31 4 23 75 0. .288 .383. .535 .919

I know, he is a hall of famer, but this gives you some perspective on Machado.

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These are Cal Ripken's stats in the minors. This is what an uber prospect looks like.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff AB 2B 3B HR RBI SB. BA OBP SLG OPS

1980 19 Cha SOUL AA BAL 522 28 5 25 78 4. .276 .367 .492 .859

1981 20 Roch IL AAA BAL 507 31 4 23 75 0. .288 .383. .535 .919

I know, he is a hall of famer, but this gives you some perspective on Machado.

Stats from over 30 years ago are supposed to give perspective?

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No reason to believe that Cal's minor league stats aren't of any value in evaluating Machado. It isn't like the competition back then was so shabby. Moreover, much is made of Machado's age as an excuse for him not dominating. Note Ripken's age.

People refer to Machado sometimes as A-Rod lite. No reason to even bother with A-Rod's stats.

Don't like these, how about someone closer to home.

2003 20 Huntsville SOUL AA MIL 114 485 416 67 116 26 0 12 62 6 4 58 54 .279 .368 .428 .796

2004 21 Indianapolis IL AAA MIL 26 112 101 17 28 10 0 4 20 0 0 9 8 .277 .330 .495 .825

JJ Hardy

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Not all top prospects and or very good Major League players dominate in the minors.

Look at Robinson Cano for example. Would you believe that he was never a top 100 prospect, at least not BA. Look at his numbers through his first 3 years. Nothing special, though clearly some indicators of a solid ball player developing. Then boom we see a nice jump in year 4 at AA and by his 5th pro year he's in New York and well on his way to becoming the best 2b in baseball.

The point I'm trying to make is sometimes you have to look deep into the numbers(BB/K rates,etc) and at times beyond the numbers. All Star, who used to post here, has said that despite not putting up big numbers, Machado very much looks like he belongs at AA and has been impressive everytime he has seen him play.

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The chances that Machado will be as good as Ripken are like 50,000 to 1. That's not a knock on Machado, it's just that there haven't been a lot of shortstops as good as Ripken in the history of the game.

That said, I don't know if the statistical comparison means too much.

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Go check out some of the best SSs in the game and how they did in the MiL at the same age as Manny, it's not all that different: Jeter, Cabrera, Andrus, Reyes, Furcal, Rollins etc.

Manny is doing just fine. He may not be Alex Rodriguez or Cal Ripken, but his numbers are well in line with those of other all-star shortstops and former phenoms. Only A-Rod, Cal Ripken, and Jurickson Profar (;)) put up numbers that good at that age.

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Machado is doing ok, but I agree with the premise that I would like to see a little more production from a guy who is ranked so high on national prospect lists. He's been young for his league by a wide margin, but special players perform well at those levels. We haven't seen Machado do anything special with thebat since he got off to the hot start at Delmarva. Since then he's held his own, but isn't exactly setting the world on fire.

This doesn't mean that Machado isn't going to become a solid major league regular, or even an occasional All-star, but it does mean we need to temper our excitement a bit and not expect him to suddenly by a savior when he arrives in the big leagues. I still think Machado is going to be just fine, but I would feel better if he started hitting better over the last five weeks or so of this season.

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Go check out some of the best SSs in the game and how they did in the MiL at the same age as Manny, it's not all that different: Jeter, Cabrera, Andrus, Reyes, Furcal, Rollins etc.

Manny is doing just fine. He may not be Alex Rodriguez or Cal Ripken, but his numbers are well in line with those of other all-star shortstops and former phenoms. Only A-Rod, Cal Ripken, and Jurickson Profar (;)) put up numbers that good at that age.

Did you even look at Jeter's minor league stats before making that ridiculous comp? Other than Jeter's first season at the age of 18, he absolute destroyed it in the minors. Look at Jeter's season at the age of 20 and tell me where you see the similarities.

As an aside, its worth noting from a development standpoint that Jeter picked up 709 AB's in AAA before making his big league debut. I'm sure Jeter would have been a success had he gotten 150 AB's at AAA, but I think this extended exposure certainly increases the odds of the player being an impact player at the MLB level on day 1, which Jeter was.

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What is this thread trying to prove? I love me some Machado, and hope he separates himself from Ripken.

It's trying to provide context. Context matters when you're considering how to build your organization. For example, if Machado would get us Felix Hernandez, should we be so close minded about trading him? His performance so far says that answer is no.

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Not all top prospects and or very good Major League players dominate in the minors.

Look at Robinson Cano for example. Would you believe that he was never a top 100 prospect, at least not BA. Look at his numbers through his first 3 years. Nothing special, though clearly some indicators of a solid ball player developing. Then boom we see a nice jump in year 4 at AA and by his 5th pro year he's in New York and well on his way to becoming the best 2b in baseball.

The point I'm trying to make is sometimes you have to look deep into the numbers(BB/K rates,etc) and at times beyond the numbers. All Star, who used to post here, has said that despite not putting up big numbers, Machado very much looks like he belongs at AA and has been impressive everytime he has seen him play.

Cano is an outlier. Very rarely do guys OPS 100 points higher in their major league career than their minor league career.

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Did you even look at Jeter's minor league stats before making that ridiculous comp? Other than Jeter's first season at the age of 18, he absolute destroyed it in the minors. Look at Jeter's season at the age of 20 and tell me where you see the similarities.

As an aside, its worth noting from a development standpoint that Jeter picked up 709 AB's in AAA before making his big league debut. I'm sure Jeter would have been a success had he gotten 150 AB's at AAA, but I think this extended exposure certainly increases the odds of the player being an impact player at the MLB level on day 1, which Jeter was.

Jeter hit .873 in '94. Before that he was a .650 - .750.

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Did you even look at Jeter's minor league stats before making that ridiculous comp? Other than Jeter's first season at the age of 18, he absolute destroyed it in the minors. Look at Jeter's season at the age of 20 and tell me where you see the similarities.

As an aside, its worth noting from a development standpoint that Jeter picked up 709 AB's in AAA before making his big league debut. I'm sure Jeter would have been a success had he gotten 150 AB's at AAA, but I think this extended exposure certainly increases the odds of the player being an impact player at the MLB level on day 1, which Jeter was.

Uh, yes, I did. At age 19 (which Manny was for half of this season) Jeter had a .770 OPS at high A. At age 20 he started off at AA where he had an .808 OPS in 69 G before moving up to AA and AAA and having a breakthrough (though in two small samples, 34 and 35 G). His next year, at age 21, he had an .816 OPS in a large sample.

What, again, is ridiculous about that comp.?

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