I like Machado, but.....

[mcgraw238]

Uh, yes, I did. At age 19 (which Manny was for half of this season) Jeter had a .770 OPS at high A. At age 20 he started off at AA where he had an .808 OPS in 69 G before moving up to AA and AAA and having a breakthrough (though in two small samples, 34 and 35 G). His next year, at age 21, he had an .816 OPS in a large sample.

What, again, is ridiculous about that comp.?

As opposed to the .692 OPS that Machado posted for a portion of his high A season (7/6/2011 - end of season)? I suppose you can hang your hat on OPS, since it's the only thing supporting your position, but I take Jeter's BA and OBP into the mix as well and see nothing close to being worthy of comparison.

I agree with Tony's take above, it's not time to panick but it would be nice to see production to mirror that lofty prospect status. I get the young for his league thing, but I'd rather the kid smoke high A for an extended period than to watch a young prospect hit .240-.250 at each level.

[Flash- bd]

As opposed to the .692 OPS that Machado posted for a portion of his high A season (7/6/2011 - end of season)? I suppose you can hang your hat on OPS, since it's the only thing supporting your position, but I take Jeter's BA and OBP into the mix as well and see nothing close to being worthy of comparison.

I agree with Tony's take above, it's not time to panick but it would be nice to see production to mirror that lofty prospect status. I get the young for his league thing, but I'd rather the kid smoke high A for an extended period than to watch a young prospect hit .240-.250 at each level.

Well yes, I do, er, "hang my hat" on OPS rather than BA, and don't just cherry pick BA and OBP when judging a player and pay little attention to SLG; if that's your philosophy, well, I'm not going to try and disabuse you of it here...

By the way, I actually made an error when I said Jeter's .770 at 19 was at high A; it was at Greensboro in the SALLY league, ie, where Delmarva plays, where MM had an .859 OPS through 38 G at age 18 before moving to high A.

Sorry, I see very little separating what Jeter did and what Machado is doing, and to say that the comp. is ridiculous (as you did) is utter hyperbole. Your personal pet peeves aside ("I'd rather the kid smoke high A for an extended period [something Jeter actually never did, btw, unless you consider an .808 OPS at age 20 smoking high A] than to watch a young prospect hit .240-.250 at each level"): what Machado is doing is well in line with other SS phenoms who had success at the ML level over the last 10-20 yrs.

[SteveO]

I agree with Tony's take. The kid is young, he has progressed pretty good so far based on numerous scouts evals. As someone else pointed out his stats are pretty much in line with other SS phenoms to this point. Guys develop at different speeds does not mean they will not eventually get were they need to be if they have the right tools.

[Frobby]

Uh, yes, I did. At age 19 (which Manny was for half of this season) Jeter had a .770 OPS at high A. At age 20 he started off at AA where he had an .808 OPS in 69 G before moving up to AA and AAA and having a breakthrough (though in two small samples, 34 and 35 G).

Take a look at their birthdays, though. Jeter was born on June 24, Machado on July 6. Therefore, what is the "age 20 season" for Jeter is the "age 19 season" for Machado, due to the baseball convention that June 30 is the dividing line for whether a player is considered "age 19" or "age 20" for the season. But in the real world, they are two weeks apart, which is insignificant. So, in that year where Jeter split his year between A+, AA and AAA, he was two weeks older than Machado is now.

[Fired-Up]

Hitters have a longer learning curve than pitchers. At age 20 Machado is simply really young. If you follow conventional wisdom 27 is the prime of a hitters career.

[Flash- bd]

Take a look at their birthdays, though. Jeter was born on June 24, Machado on July 6. Therefore, what is the "age 20 season" for Jeter is the "age 19 season" for Machado, due to the baseball convention that June 30 is the dividing line for whether a player is considered "age 19" or "age 20" for the season. But in the real world, they are two weeks apart, which is insignificant. So, in that year where Jeter split his year between A+, AA and AAA, he was two weeks older than Machado is now.

Fair point. Still, Jeter-Machado is hardly a ridiculous comp., and the other names I put out there Manny compares well to, or in some cases favorably. Manny is doing fine. IIt's fair to say he's not an uber prospect like Ripken, A-Rod, or Profar, but he's certainly in the blue-chip/phenom/regular old top 10 prospect class just below.

I'll be worried if we see no jump forward next year.

[ccbird]

Cano is an outlier. Very rarely do guys OPS 100 points higher in their major league career than their minor league career.

No doubt, point was more the 2nd paragraph. Sometimes you have to look deep into stats and watch guys play at the minor league levl. Obviously, projection is part of ranking prospects.I love the BBs and BB/K rate for Manny. The slug % around .400 is ok with me too. That's again something where you project a little. No reason why he couldn't get to .450 as he matures right?? To me, if he just can get that batting average up into the .270 range your looking at an OBP in the .340/.350 range. If that slug is in the .430-.450 range your looking at an .800 OPS SS. Pretty darn good and IMO pretty conservative projection as well.

[waroriole]

No doubt, point was more the 2nd paragraph. Sometimes you have to look deep into stats and watch guys play at the minor league levl. Obviously, projection is part of ranking prospects.I love the BBs and BB/K rate for Manny. The slug % around .400 is ok with me too. That's again something where you project a little. No reason why he couldn't get to .450 as he matures right?? To me, if he just can get that batting average up into the .270 range your looking at an OBP in the .340/.350 range. If that slug is in the .430-.450 range your looking at an .800 OPS SS. Pretty darn good and IMO pretty conservative projection as well.

I agree, but I don't want to assume any more than a .750-.800 OPS from Manny. If he does that and plays good defense at SS, he'll be another Wieters. Valuable, but not a game changer. The more guys you get like that, the better you are. Of course, an elite player would be nice too.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree, but I don't want to assume any more than a .750-.800 OPS from Manny. If he does that and plays good defense at SS, he'll be another Wieters. Valuable, but not a game changer. The more guys you get like that, the better you are. Of course, an elite player would be nice too.

Right. He does that, at $400,000 a year, and we're in very good shape. I mean, the Rangers have done okay with Elvin Andrus, right?

[Slappy]

Why jump through all the hoops? Just compare him to another current 19-year old at AA, Jurickson Profar.

Manny needs to pick it up.

[Slappy]

Right. He does that, at $400,000 a year, and we're in very good shape. I mean, the Rangers have done okay with Elvin Andrus, right?

Because you need superstar players to win championships.

[MatthewW]

Not all top prospects and or very good Major League players dominate in the minors.

Look at Robinson Cano for example. Would you believe that he was never a top 100 prospect, at least not BA. Look at his numbers through his first 3 years. Nothing special, though clearly some indicators of a solid ball player developing. Then boom we see a nice jump in year 4 at AA and by his 5th pro year he's in New York and well on his way to becoming the best 2b in baseball.

The point I'm trying to make is sometimes you have to look deep into the numbers(BB/K rates,etc) and at times beyond the numbers. All Star, who used to post here, has said that despite not putting up big numbers, Machado very much looks like he belongs at AA and has been impressive everytime he has seen him play.

Sort of off topic but I always found it interesting. Back in '04, the Rangers traded A-Rod to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and a PTBNL. Apparently, the PTBNL came down to 'phenom' Joaquin Arias and Robinson Cano, with the Rangers having the choice on which one they wanted. They chose Arias...

[vab]

Machado is doing ok, but I agree with the premise that I would like to see a little more production from a guy who is ranked so high on national prospect lists. He's been young for his league by a wide margin, but special players perform well at those levels. We haven't seen Machado do anything special with thebat since he got off to the hot start at Delmarva. Since then he's held his own, but isn't exactly setting the world on fire.

This doesn't mean that Machado isn't going to become a solid major league regular, or even an occasional All-star, but it does mean we need to temper our excitement a bit and not expect him to suddenly by a savior when he arrives in the big leagues. I still think Machado is going to be just fine, but I would feel better if he started hitting better over the last five weeks or so of this season.

Right. And it also means he should not be considered untouchable.

[Flash- bd]

2-3 with a HR, 2B, and BB today. Really encouraging. Looks like he's breaking out of this slump. Hopefully he can finish strong...if he finishes with a .750-.775 OPS I'll be very encouraged going into next year.

EDIT: by the way, this is one of the guys I compared Manny with a while ago (a month or two ago) but forgot to look at again when this issue came up in this thread. Hanley Ramirez, who's perhaps one of the most fitting comps. for Manny considering their similar skillset/size:

At age 20 Hanley had a .753 OPS in 62 G at A+, followed by a .512 OPS in 32 G at AA. At age 19 he spent the full season at A and had a .730 OPS.

I don't think people realize how aggressive our promotion strategy has been with Manny, and how well he is doing considering. Like I've said, Ripken, A-Rod, and Profar are about the only 3 SS prospects in the last 20-30 years (that I can think of, anyways) who have done/are doing significantly better than Manny has at his age/level.

[Lucky Jim]

Because you need superstar players to win championships.

Is this disputed anywhere?