SD wanted Arrieta and 2 prospects for Headley

[Pickles]

I need to edit my statement above to Drungo:

Both Avery and Hoes were taken outside of the first, and they both, imo, have chances of developing into ML regulars, so I shouldn't have been quite so hard on JJ's drafting resume here.

[hammonds davis]

I think padres wind up taking Matusz in place of Arrieta today in the previously rumored trade offer.

[VeveJones007]

I think it's entirely possible that the O's think that Peterson can sort out Arrieta's mechanics and help him reach his potential. If you aren't going to trust Peterson with good arms, then what's he here for?

[Aglets]

I would trade Arrieta and some prospects for Headley without blinking. This guy is a virtual lock to be a major contributor for us for 2+ seasons, and certainly longer if we extend him. How confident are we to say that about Arrieta or any of these Low A guys?

C'mon Dan.

[sevastras]

I would trade Arrieta and some prospects for Headley without blinking. This guy is a virtual lock to be a major contributor for us for 2+ seasons, and certainly longer if we extend him. How confident are we to say that about Arrieta or any of these Low A guys?

C'mon Dan.

I agree, and would be dissappointed if we don't get Headley today. If the rumors are accurate (Arrieta++) then we should be pretty close to a deal.

I would love for us to finish the season like we started 34-26, in fact this will be my prediction for the end of the year.

[Don_Aase_Fan]

I would trade Arrieta and some prospects for Headley without blinking. This guy is a virtual lock to be a major contributor for us for 2+ seasons, and certainly longer if we extend him. How confident are we to say that about Arrieta or any of these Low A guys?

I'd do it too, no question. Headley makes so much sense for us it hurts.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would trade Arrieta and some prospects for Headley without blinking. This guy is a virtual lock to be a major contributor for us for 2+ seasons, and certainly longer if we extend him. How confident are we to say that about Arrieta or any of these Low A guys?

C'mon Dan.

The devil is in the details. I'd be tempted by Arrieta and two low-level prospects, maybe even to include Delmonico. But Arrieta, Schoop, and Delmonico? I'm having a hard time dealing multiple guys who could be worth as much as Headley, for more years. I don't think it's a terrible stretch to see any of those guys being worth three wins a year for 4, 5, 6 years.

As I've said before, the O's budget quickly becomes unmanageable if they routinely flip cheap talent for good but expensive players.

[G.O.A.T.]

At work and just jumped into this thread ont he last page, has there been any reports recently that still have us talking to the Padres?

[VeveJones007]

The devil is in the details. I'd be tempted by Arrieta and two low-level prospects, maybe even to include Delmonico. But Arrieta, Schoop, and Delmonico? I'm having a hard time dealing multiple guys who could be worth as much as Headley, for more years. I don't think it's a terrible stretch to see any of those guys being worth three wins a year for 4, 5, 6 years.

As I've said before, the O's budget quickly becomes unmanageable if they routinely flip cheap talent for good but expensive players.

Yep. We have a little info on what the framework was, but there are still too many question marks to say that it's a deal the O's should make.

[Don_Aase_Fan]

At work and just jumped into this thread ont he last page, has there been any reports recently that still have us talking to the Padres?

"The Padres wanted Jake Arrieta and two prospects for Headley, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (Twitter links). After Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, Arrieta is the young Orioles player rival teams covet most, Connolly writes. However, those clubs are trying to buy low on Arrieta. Connolly reports that one of the two prospects the Padres sought with Arrieta is a high ceiling player at Class A Delmarva."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/chase-headley-rumors-monday.html

[clapdiddy]

At work and just jumped into this thread ont he last page, has there been any reports recently that still have us talking to the Padres?

No.

Stuff.

[hoosiers]

The devil is in the details. I'd be tempted by Arrieta and two low-level prospects, maybe even to include Delmonico. But Arrieta, Schoop, and Delmonico? I'm having a hard time dealing multiple guys who could be worth as much as Headley, for more years. I don't think it's a terrible stretch to see any of those guys being worth three wins a year for 4, 5, 6 years.

This is why I keep Schoop. We have a glaring hole at 2B in 2013 and 2014 and a Top 100 prospect finishing his first year at AA. Even if Schoop is 1.5-2.- WAR pre-arb, he provides more value than Headley. IMO, Schoop is untouchable without a fantastic return.

I am fine with some risk-taking, but not with feeling like an idiot. Dealing Schoop has tons more downside than upside.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is why I keep Schoop. We have a glaring hole at 2B in 2013 and 2014 and a Top 100 prospect finishing his first year at AA. Even if Schoop is 1.5-2.- WAR pre-arb, he provides more value than Headley. IMO, Schoop is untouchable without a fantastic return.

I am fine with some risk-taking, but not with feeling like an idiot. Dealing Schoop has tons more downside than upside.

Dealing Arrieta, Schoop, and someone else like Delmonico or Avery has a massively more downside than upside. You can justify Schoop straight up for Headley. Headley fills a need, isn't horribly expensive, and has some chance of breaking out once freed from PETCO. But your baseline has to be he's a 3-win player, just like he's been recently. And that Schoop is a 20-year-old who's already held his own and shown power as one of the younger guys in AA, and that kind of player often breaks out and becomes a star. Even if "often" means 30%, that's a huge risk to take if you throw in another 30-50% that Arrieta becomes a useful piece, and 20% that the third guy does.

You have a decent chance that the trade is a small to moderate win for the O's, but also a decent chance that it's a moderate-to-awful loss. Run history a thousand times and the Glenn Davis trade doesn't always fail, but when it does, man does it fail. Headley for prospects is out of a similar mold.

[Lucky Jim]

Headley fills a need, isn't horribly expensive, and has some chance of breaking out once freed from PETCO. But your baseline has to be he's a 3-win player, just like he's been recently.

Is this discounting for UZR inflation? Or bWAR? Or?

As per BR, he's a 4 WAR player over the last three years per 162 games, even given his down year last year.

As per FG, he's a 5 WAR player over the last three years per 162 games, even given his down year last year.

[MrOrange82]

Dealing Arrieta, Schoop, and someone else like Delmonico or Avery has a massively more downside than upside. You can justify Schoop straight up for Headley. Headley fills a need, isn't horribly expensive, and has some chance of breaking out once freed from PETCO. But your baseline has to be he's a 3-win player, just like he's been recently. And that Schoop is a 20-year-old who's already held his own and shown power as one of the younger guys in AA, and that kind of player often breaks out and becomes a star. Even if "often" means 30%, that's a huge risk to take if you throw in another 30-50% that Arrieta becomes a useful piece, and 20% that the third guy does.

You have a decent chance that the trade is a small to moderate win for the O's, but also a decent chance that it's a moderate-to-awful loss. Run history a thousand times and the Glenn Davis trade doesn't always fail, but when it does, man does it fail. Headley for prospects is out of a similar mold.

Arrieta does not look like a "30-50%" player. You're being generous with his odds. As for Schoop, he's "shown power" in the form of 12 HR's...nothing to sneeze at. However, his SLG% is .391. Pair that with an OBP of .301 and you have...well, a prospect I'm not willing to "give away," by any means, and (as I've stated previously) Arrieta, Schoop, and Delmonico seems a bit too rich for me...but still. At some point the O's need to add legitimate, potentially long-term, ML talent to their roster. Reclamation projects, long-shots, and waiting for prospects to develop simply hasn't cut it. If you could get Headley for "just" Arrieta and Schoop, or Arrieta, Delmonico and another, lower-level guy, there are few reasonable arguments that could be made, IMO, against doing so.