The Cavalry's Value (per Roch)

[DrungoHazewood]

If Headley was under control for 3 years or more, then I think I'm leaning that direction. But for less than 3 years, can't do it.

Headley is probably going to be worth 9, 10 wins over the next two and a half years. Something like that. But he'll be paid $15M or so, maybe a little more. That's a pretty good deal.

But there's a not-insignificant chance that Arrieta+Matusz will provide a better return over a longer period.

[Frobby]

I agree with DD's decisions. Headley is a great player, but 4 more years of Arrieta and 3 more years of Matusz are more valuable than the 2 years you get from him. If we had some established pitchers beyond Chen and Hammel, or if we get more guarenteed years from Headley maybe you can do this trade. As it stands I'm glad DD didn't ship them to San Diego.

FYI, it's four more years of Matusz now. Matusz had earned 2.026 years of service time going into this year, and he earned another 87 days before his demotion, so that is 2.113. There are only 58 days left in the season as of today, so Matusz cannot earn enough service time to reach 3 full years by the end of this year. 172 days is considered a full year, and Matusz will be at 171 or less even if he is called up today.

[jamalshw]

Just say no to the Wandy deal, but the Headley deal....let's just say I wouldn't be mad at it.

Would most people accept Matusz + Strop + a prospect?

To me, that's not much different than Matusz/Arrieta as I view Arrieta's future as most likely in the pen.

I think I'd make the Headley deal and have this for 2013:

C- Wieters

1B- Davis/Reimold

2B- Andino - players move around some if/when Machado/Schoop are ready

3B- Headley

SS- Hardy

LF- Avery/Hoes

CF- Jones

RF- Markakis

DH- Reimold/Davis

Bench: Betemit, Teagarden, Hoes/Avery, (INF - eventually, Andino)

Then you still have the following arms:

1.

2. Hammel

3. Chen

4. Tillman

5. Gonzalez/Britton/Hunter/Johnson/Bundy

Bullpen (comprised of some combination of): Johnson, Strop, Patton, Lindstrom, Hunter, Pomeranz, S.Johnson, Gonzalez, Britton, Wada, etc.

That leaves a TOR starter as the only other real need.

[Ampontan]

Just because the O's didn't make that trade doesn't mean it wasn't equal value. The Orioles didn' feel that it was. The Padres did. Again, it's subjective. You obviously feel that Arrieta and Matusz is too much to give up for Headley. Just because the trade wasn't made, doesn't prove your point.

I expressed an opinion on the San Diego's valuation, but that wasn't the point. The point is that the price mechanism in the free market paradigm works for baseball players just as much as it works for US Treasuries or zinc bushings. What has been determined is that San Diego's market valuation of Headley as of the end of July was too high.

[El Gordo]

I have no doubt that both Arrieta and Matusz will be solid ML SP as soon as they find their way to another team. It's not happening here IMO. Too much tweaking.

[Rene88]

Arrieta + Matusz for Headley seems like a fair deal but it would be like the O's admitting failure with 2 very highly regarded prospects. I think a lot of people would have been okay with that deal.

Not me. Even if Jake and Matusz turn out to be awful, you don't trade two very good upside starters for one slightly above average 3B. No way.

[Lucky Jim]

The Padres wanted both Matusz and Arrieta for the very reason we should be slow to give them both up: together, they form a very good package of risk/reward.

[LookitsPuck]

Not me. Even if Jake and Matusz turn out to be awful, you don't trade two very good upside starters for one slightly above average 3B. No way.

Slightly above average 3B?

WAR over his last 4 years:

2009: 1.5

2010: 4.9

2011: 2.7

2012: 4.5

That is not slightly above average. That is well above average. His fielding is excellent. His hitting is phenomenal. Great patience, still relatively young, cheap, and controllable for 2 more years (and the last 2 months of this season).

OPS+ over the last 4:

102, 97, 121, and 127.

His hitting splits:

234/323/344 - 667 at home

300/370/450 - 820 away

PetCo is killing his numbers.

He's a switch hitter with relatively even splits (career).

He'd benefit greatly from playing at OPACY.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Padres wanted both Matusz and Arrieta for the very reason we should be slow to give them both up: together, they form a very good package of risk/reward.

All you have to do is turn one of them into a 2008-2011 level Jeremy Guthrie to win the deal, unless Headley has an unexpected late-career performance spike (which would be somewhat mitigated by higher arb awards).

[DrungoHazewood]

He'd benefit greatly from playing at OPACY.

His raw numbers and potential future earnings would benefit, but he'd likely not be worth any more wins.

[CA-ORIOLE]

His raw numbers and potential future earnings would benefit, but he'd likely not be worth any more wins.

Theoretically, but it didn't work out that way with Adrian Beltre.

[Basketeer]

Based on what we've seen from Tillman thus far this season and previous performances by both Arrieta and Matusz, I don't think it's wise to give up on either at this point. Not every pitcher can come in and pull a David Price and be lights out immediately. It takes time to develop into a major league pitcher and they're just working out the kinks.

Personally, I'd have been pissed if we gave up on any of them for the likes of Wandy Rodriguez or Chase Headley (I could've lived with giving up 1 of them for him, but not t2).

[DrungoHazewood]

Theoretically, but it didn't work out that way with Adrian Beltre.

I'm not sure I'd use Beltre as a case study for anything, since his annual WAR totals almost seem to be generated by rolling dice.

Adrian Gonzalez' last two years in PETCO and first two in Fenway look like they'll be almost the same WAR totals. Kevin Kouzmanoff was pretty much the same player in Oakland as PETCO in '10, before disappearing in '11.

[alaniee]

Would have done Headley for Arrietta and Matusz in a heartbeat!

[LookitsPuck]

His raw numbers and potential future earnings would benefit, but he'd likely not be worth any more wins.

Truth.

But if he averages something like 3-4 WAR over the next 2 years (and contributes the last 2 months), is that worth a Matusz and Arrieta to you?