The Cavalry's Value (per Roch)

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not sure I'd use Beltre as a case study for anything, since his annual WAR totals almost seem to be generated by rolling dice.

Adrian Gonzalez' last two years in PETCO and first two in Fenway look like they'll be almost the same WAR totals. Kevin Kouzmanoff was pretty much the same player in Oakland as PETCO in '10, before disappearing in '11.

Ehh, I'd say Beltre's WAR numbers have exploded out of SAFECO. I think Beltre was a guy who was well penalized by the park which kills RH power hitters. He indicated it changed his overall approach. I'm not sure what going on with AG this year, but I he hits a lot with power to the opposite field which might penalize him in Fenway. Kouz fell of the planet. I get the point and there most likely won't be tht mcuh of a valie difference, but the park factors are far from perfect. It looks like Headley is going to put up some HRs this year.

[Brendan25]

Would have done Headley for Arrietta and Matusz in a heartbeat!

Even without an extension?

[DrungoHazewood]

Truth.

But if he averages something like 3-4 WAR over the next 2 years (and contributes the last 2 months), is that worth a Matusz and Arrieta to you?

Depends on whether or not Arrieta and Matusz are combining for 5 or 6 WAR for $800k a year. Odds of that are good enough that I'd have thought very long before deciding on that, and probably would have said no.

[WEAVERMAN]

Wada as more of a bullpen option next year...maybe lose Lindstrom or Ayala for the second lefty in the pen.

If Wada is healthy in 2013, he stands a good chance to be in the rotation. His numbers in Japan were excellent. And unlike some of the Orioles prospects, he knows how to pitch. Please don't count him out.

[DrungoHazewood]

If Wada is healthy in 2013, he stands a good chance to be in the rotation. His numbers in Japan were excellent. And unlike some of the Orioles prospects, he knows how to pitch. Please don't count him out.

I'm a big Wada fan, but would you be giving a rotation spot to a major league pitcher who was 32, coming off Tommy John surgery, and threw 88-90 beforehand? Now add in the uncertainty of his translation from Japan.

I'd make him part of the competition, but he'll definitely need to show the team something significant in the spring.

[SrMeowMeow]

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I don't really want Wandy at all. The Headley idea is...insidious. I just really think Arrieta's pretty good. God, I don't know. That's a tough offer.

[bobmc]

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I don't really want Wandy at all. The Headley idea is...insidious. I just really think Arrieta's pretty good. God, I don't know. That's a tough offer.

As Seinfeld's mom used to say about Jerry, "How can anyone not like Jake?" :hearts:

[Pickles]

Depends on whether or not Arrieta and Matusz are combining for 5 or 6 WAR for $800k a year. Odds of that are good enough that I'd have thought very long before deciding on that, and probably would have said no.

Isn't that the point?

I think it's fair to point out however, that they won't be earning 400k for much longer.

[Pickles]

Even without an extension?

You don't need to sign him to an extension now. He's here through 2014 as is.

[Greg]

Arrieta + Matusz = Chase Headley

LOL that is a steal for the O's

[Moose Milligan]

The trade talks indicate that both the Padres and the Orioles believe that Arrieta and Matusz have good shots at significant careers.

I'll have what they're having.

[LookitsPuck]

I couldnt disagree more with this post.Both pitchers will be solid ML pitchers. I believe it.Headley is a nice player, but not a game changer for the Orioles.

How is he not a game changer? A 3-5 WAR player isn't a game changer?

[Roll Tide]

The Padres wanted both the hometown Matusz and Arrieta for Headley. Seems fair to me as they have two shots at one of these guys to figure it out.

[Roll Tide]

I couldnt disagree more with this post.Both pitchers will be solid ML pitchers. I believe it.Headley is a nice player, but not a game changer for the Orioles.

Headley is seriously undervalued on this site. And the chances of Matusz and Arrieta both being solid MLB pitchers in Baltimore is remote ...but improves some in Petco.

[Ampontan]

Your first post talked about it in baseball terms and values. Now you are onto market valuation.

They're the same thing. Baseball has a player market. In this market, GMs do the same thing as financial engineers/stockbrokers.