Jump to content

SI.com: Why the O's Post Season Dream is all but Impossible


LookinUp

Recommended Posts

Much more explanation at the link, but here's a couple of snippets.

http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimore-orioles-postseason-drea/

So how seriously should we take the Orioles? The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds, which are driven by remaining schedule and run differentials, adjusted for the quality of opposition, gives Baltimore just a 5.7 percent chance at making the playoffs. Even the Red Sox, who at 54-55 are 3 1/2 games below them in the standings, have a 10.2 percent shot. Those odds aren?t simply theoretical, as history suggests the deck is strongly stacked against them. Few teams wind up exceeding their Pythagorean records by nine wins, and even fewer teams with negative run differentials reach the playoffs.

Even given the strong performance of their best relievers ? at 3.47, closer Jim Johnson has a higher ERA than setup men Pedro Strop (1.31), Luis Ayala (2.68) and Darren O?Day (2.68) ? the weight of the historical evidence strongly suggests that the Orioles aren?t likely to keep winning the close ones with such frequency. If they can?t win the close ones, the O?s aren?t likely to remain in the crowded playoff hunt, or even sustain a winning record; indeed, after a 14-9 April, they?ve gone a combined 43-42 since then, while being outscored by 69 runs. Even so, while run differential is predictive, it is not destiny, and the Birds? ability to even maintain a competitive front given the imbalance between their runs scored and runs allowed is one of those fascinating anomalies that bears watching.

Here's hoping we can hang on through August and get a nice bump in performance from guys like Avery and extra arms in September.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 130
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Lol, more from SI.com (which I never really visit).

Power Rankings:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/08/06/fangraphs-power-rankings-week-17/index.html#?eref=sihp

O's #23

WAR Winning Percentage: .443; Current Winning Percentage: .528; WAR Wins: 48; Current Wins: 57

The Orioles continue to defy the odds, as they are the only team in the AL East to post an above .500 record over their past 10 games and sit second place in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Both their WAR ranking and run differential suggest the Orioles should hit a wall at some point, but they continue to win games despite not having a well-rounded team.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/08/06/fangraphs-power-rankings-week-17/index.html#ixzz22sQAwB5i

This ranking is laughably bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

while run differential is predictive, it is not destiny

I think this is my new motto. If we still had signature lines on our posts, this would be mine.

Yeah, the odds are against us. They have been all year. But we're still alive and kicking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this is my new motto. If we still had signature lines on our posts, this would be mine.

Yeah, the odds are against us. They have been all year. But we're still alive and kicking.

No doubt. We also have reason to hope, given the return of Hammel, hopeful success of Arrieta, relatively easy current schedule, injuries in the division and potential improvement with September call-ups, there's no reason to give up hope at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Other "impossible" things:

-Chaminade beating Virginia

-George Mason making it to the Final Four

-VCU making it to the Final Four

-the Red Sox and White Sox winning a World Series

-throwing a no-hitter with only one hand

I could go on but I think you get the picture. Excuse me while I go yawn at this SI article.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What this fails to take into consideration is that the run differential and the post-April record are to a large degree attributable to pitchers who are now in the Norfolk rotation.

I think it implicitly takes it into consideration because most teams don't have multiple pitchers who are better than what they have in their April MLB rotation stored elsewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What this fails to take into consideration is that the run differential and the post-April record are to a large degree attributable to pitchers who are now in the Norfolk rotation.

They compare us to 100+ years of teams, many of whom also had minor leagues.

Our run differential is due to poor pitchers (two of which are in our current rotation), poor defense (which has slightly improved) and pretty poor offense (which could get hot, but is unlikely to totally turn over a new leaf for the remainder of the season). Much of our strength is on our bullpen, which has regressed a bit.

I see plenty of reason to hope, but the article is still very valid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do think that if I was creating odds of making the playoffs at this point, I'd have a hard time giving Boston better odds than Baltimore. There may be some numerical reasons to think that Boston could finish strong, but the team's karma seems very heavily against it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it implicitly takes it into consideration because most teams don't have multiple pitchers who are better than what they have in their April MLB rotation stored elsewhere.

You sure cling to the numbers like there has never been, or ever will be, an exception. You may be right, but your level of certainty is puzzling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do think that if I was creating odds of making the playoffs at this point, I'd have a hard time giving Boston better odds than Baltimore. There may be some numerical reasons to think that Boston could finish strong, but the team's karma seems very heavily against it.

You can't measure Karma in terms of WAR or Pythag etc. Please keep your comments within the confines of information that can be tangibly measured. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was listening/watching the MASN pregame show with Amber and Dave Johnson and the roundtable and they basically said the Orioles have no chance on paper, but why not?

That is why the lack of activity really hurts at the deadline IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is an example of newfangled "numbers" not showing the whole story. JJ's ERA is high because of ONE game where he gave up 6 runs in a third of an inning. The run differential, as we've said many times, is because when we lose, BOY do we lose, but when we win, its usually a well played, close game. We just don't have the offense to put 10 runs on the board consistently.

I know the odds are long for us making the playoffs, but it has nothing to do with these numbers discussed in this article.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do think that if I was creating odds of making the playoffs at this point, I'd have a hard time giving Boston better odds than Baltimore. There may be some numerical reasons to think that Boston could finish strong, but the team's karma seems very heavily against it.
I mean, if I went 'round saying I was an emperor just because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me, they'd put me away!

[video=youtube;dOOTKA0aGI0]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




×
×
  • Create New...