SI.com: Why the O's Post Season Dream is all but Impossible

[bdlj0887]

The Orioles fit that pattern almost to a tee. They have the league’s third-best bullpen ERA at 3.16, though that mark is offset somewhat by their league-high 36 percent rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Their Fair Run Average, which divides up the responsibility for inherited runners between starters and relievers according to the base-out situation, ranks fifth in the league at 4.18.

The information here almost doesn't seem to fit with what I've seen this year and can only presume that while we give up a league high of inherited runners to score, our pen must be entering games more often than most with nobody on.

Buck likes even innings, and Ayala ends up coming in with inherited runners on, even though he's absolutely awful there.

[Lucky Jim]

When using Pythag to evaluate future success, shouldn't we be eliminating statistical outliers; after all, it's a statistical analysis. I think there was a post in a gamethread a few days back that when you add up the blowout losses and the wins, it makes up for most of the negative run differential. I think that gives a better indicator of where we are now, a little bit lucky with an incredible bullpen.

If we selectively eliminate data so that something conforms to our subjective belief it definitely offers a "better indicator" that life conforms with our subjective belief.

[zero1]

I do think that if I was creating odds of making the playoffs at this point, I'd have a hard time giving Boston better odds than Baltimore. There may be some numerical reasons to think that Boston could finish strong, but the team's karma seems very heavily against it.

The Red Sox have more talent than the O's and while everyone claims them to be bad they are only 1 game under .500 and capable of winning 18 of 20 at any point.

[bdlj0887]

If we selectively eliminate data so that something conforms to our subjective belief it definitely offers a "better indicator" that life conforms with our subjective belief.

We're talking about statistical outliers, which when you have such crooked numbers on one data point offer a very poor sample. You'll probably find a very similar outcome with the Cardinals this year, which seemingly have the reverse issue that the Orioles do, although they don't have a losing record.

[Fan4Life]

When using Pythag to evaluate future success, shouldn't we be eliminating statistical outliers; after all, it's a statistical analysis. I think there was a post in a gamethread a few days back that when you add up the blowout losses and the wins, it makes up for most of the negative run differential. I think that gives a better indicator of where we are now, a little bit lucky with an incredible bullpen.

I didn't see the post, but as I pointed out earlier, we've been outscored 204-150 in games we give up 5 or more runs. I presume in a normal situation we'd also have something like a 30-45 run differential in our favor in similar games where we score more than 5 runs. Which would somewhat normalize the numbers and allow algorithms like Pythag to work. However, I don't know our run differential in games where we score more than 5 runs.

[Lucky Jim]

We're talking about statistical outliers, which when you have such crooked numbers on one data point offer a very poor sample. You'll probably find a very similar outcome with the Cardinals this year, which seemingly have the reverse issue that the Orioles do, although they don't have a losing record.

What is the basis for eliminating blow-out games? We've had 32 "blow-out games":19 blow-out losses (more than 5 runs) and 13 blow-out wins (more than five runs). We've had 27 one run games (21-6). What's the outlier?

The Royals are 16-15 in one-run games and 9-18 in 5+ run games (with a differential of 42 runs), for instance.

The Rockies are 10-10 in one-run games and 9-22 in 5+ run games (with a differential of 67 runs).

The Cubs are 10-18 in 5+ run games with a differential of 57 runs.

[Fan4Life]

What is the basis for eliminating blow-out games? We've had 32 "blow-out games":19 blow-out losses (more than 5 runs) and 13 blow-out wins (more than five runs). We've had 27 one run games (21-6). What's the outlier?

What's the run differential in the blow-out wins versus the blow-out losses? Not your job to post this... but it matters. We've been blown out 6 more times which is a minimum of 36 runs using the more than 5 run limit.

[bdlj0887]

What is the basis for eliminating blow-out games? We've had 32 "blow-out games":19 blow-out losses (more than 5 runs) and 13 blow-out wins (more than five runs). We've had 27 one run games (21-6). What's the outlier?

The Royals are 16-15 in one-run games and 9-18 in 5+ run games (with a differential of 42 runs), for instance.

I definitely see what you're getting at, and it's subjective for sure. But the O's offense just doesn't have the quality to match the awful performance some of our pitchers have put up this year, so I think the pythag is a crapshoot, and it's really the best way to try and figure out what's going on. Regardless, I'd rather be lucky and win than unlucky and lose.

[Fan4Life]

I definitely see what you're getting at, and it's subjective for sure. But the O's offense just doesn't have the quality to match the awful performance some of our pitchers have put up this year, so I think the pythag is a crapshoot, and it's really the best way to try and figure out what's going on. Regardless, I'd rather be lucky and win than unlucky and lose.

That's what makes stats suck... they appear to be a crapshoot, but when used correctly, are often correct. I think Pythag is an awful way to determine wins and losses about a team because of exhibit A, Orioles. However, it's usually within a small error range which means seasons like the one we're are having rarely happen.

[Lucky Jim]

I definitely see what you're getting at, and it's subjective for sure. But the O's offense just doesn't have the quality to match the awful performance some of our pitchers have put up this year, so I think the pythag is a crapshoot, and it's really the best way to try and figure out what's going on. Regardless, I'd rather be lucky and win than unlucky and lose.

This doesn't make the pythag a crapshoot. It makes the Orioles a flawed team.

[VeveJones007]

We're actually relatively low-ranked in blown saves, which is odd. Though we've won a lot of the games where we've blown the save. Some might chalk that up to clutch-iness, some to luck. To me, it's just another anomaly in a season of anomalies.

True. I was referencing the crazy record the team has with a lead after 7 and 8 innings as well as the team's record in extra innings (11 straight wins is out of this world). The bullpen has been getting it done despite a poor job of stranding inherited runners.

[VeveJones007]

We're talking about statistical outliers, which when you have such crooked numbers on one data point offer a very poor sample. You'll probably find a very similar outcome with the Cardinals this year, which seemingly have the reverse issue that the Orioles do, although they don't have a losing record.

We have to be very careful calling something an outlier. It very well may be a valid case.

What should correct those cases is that over 162 games, the O's should win some more blowouts than they have if they really are as good as their record indicates.

[Lucky Jim]

True. I was referencing the crazy record the team has with a lead after 7 and 8 innings as well as the team's record in extra innings (11 straight wins is out of this world). The bullpen has been getting it done despite a poor job of stranding inherited runners.

Yeah - I was just thinking that these things go hand-in-hand. We don't strand runners (and thus blow saves) but somehow win those games. I'm definitely not criticizing the bullpen.

[Can_of_corn]

The Red Sox have more talent than the O's and while everyone claims them to be bad they are only 1 game under .500 and capable of winning 18 of 20 at any point.

I wonder how often a team wins 18 of 20 games.

These Red Sox don't have the pitching to do it.

[Dannyboy]

In the 5 worst blow out losses the O's lost by a total of 53 runs, nearly all of that negative run differential. And after the first five games after the All-Star break, they had lost by a total of 23 runs nearly half the total for the year. But since those 5 games, they are 12-7, with a run diff.of +7, and that includes lossing 10-1 to TB, and 12-9 to NYY.