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Schoenfield's ESPN Sweet Spot featuring the O's today


isestrex

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I think it's the opposite. If this had been happening in 1980 or 1950 nobody would have noticed the Pythag or the run differential, and nobody would have even had the tools to figure out one-run records or extra-inning records. The O's would just be another 59-51 team, albeit one that hadn't won that many games in a while.

But now we know. We know that this is a team on pace to outplay their run differential by the largest amount in 107 years. One of only seven teams since 1901 to be (or at least be on pace to be) outscored, yet outplay their Pythag by 10 or more games. The best record in one run games in recorded history. One of the best extra-inning records ever. That helps make this team all the more special and unbelievable. So much better than just remarking that a previously bad team is in the hunt for the 2nd wildcard.

When the 1981 Orioles went 59-46 despite being outscored it was like it never happened. Nobody knew, nobody cared.

If you're using that data to get enjoyment out of the sheer craziness that has been this season so far, then that's fine. And that's cool.

If you're using that data to support an argument that this team is going to fall apart, then well, you're missing out on a lot of fun.

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See, that's what I think is squeezing all the fun out of this. Trying to assign reasons and explanations for something that's just happening, mostly for no reason at all. The O's are winning because of good luck and a good bullpen. That's pretty much it, and in that order.

Is it luck though? Why can't it just be a good bullpen and timely hits?

I think luck makes it sound like the O's are winning games because the other team has lost them and that hasn't been happening.

You can say unlikely, flukey, unsustainable, but luck rubs me the wrong way.

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Run differential is more predictive of where the O's should have been rather than where they're going. So yeah, if prognosticators want to say the team has been lucky to this point - I'll buy some of it. Yeah, if they want to argue that the team can't keep up doing things at this pace, they're probably right.

But is there any reason that the team can't outscore opponents by 25 runs over the next 52 games and win 28-32 (settling well within the pythagorean expectation for that span), thus putting themselves firmly in the playoff, if not division, mix???

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Is it luck though? Why can't it just be a good bullpen and timely hits?

The team's strength is its bullpen. When that strength is allowed to be leveraged, the team usually wins. But in games when it does not have a chance to be used as it should be - blowouts, the team usually loses and loses badly.

Take a look at June and July, where the run diff took a nose dive. Collectively only one game under .500, but the RD stinks. More than half of the losses were by 5 or more runs. while only four wins were by five or more leading to a lopsided RD. In non-blowout games we are well over .500 with RD's that are basically even, -9 over two months of games. That itself gets exasperated by June's WOEFUL offensive performance that saw us win 10 of our 13 wins by one or two runs.

Over the last 20 games the Orioles have a 13-7 record, a positive run differential that still takes a 18 run hit because of two bad losses.

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Run differential is more predictive of where the O's should have been rather than where they're going. So yeah, if prognosticators want to say the team has been lucky to this point - I'll buy some of it. Yeah, if they want to argue that the team can't keep up doing things at this pace, they're probably right.

But is there any reason that the team can't outscore opponents by 25 runs over the next 52 games and win 28-32 (settling well within the pythagorean expectation for that span), thus putting themselves firmly in the playoff, if not division, mix???

Bingo. June was our true killer (-30 RD) and I am willing to bet that the Orioles are more likely to start chipping away at that deficit this month than adding to it.

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According to global warmists, we all should have been under water by now. Only now are they going back to their models from 1998 and saying, whoops, we messed that one up, but you really should believe us about what's about to happen!

If the pythag and all other measures fail to account for where the Orioles are now, why should we believe it will accurately predict where the orioles are going? No model can account for the effect Buck has had on this team. Would they be where they are today with Dave Trembley or Sam Perlozzo or Bobby V? Would they be where they are today without Chris Davis stepping up to pitch the 16th and 17th innings at Fenway? Could some model have predicted that JJ Hardy would hit the ball squarely last night in the 7th rather than 1 millimeter higher or lower?

Let's just enjoy what seems to be a special group of guys bringing winning back to OPACY.

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Seriously just throw out that pesky Rangers' series (when they were playing like the greatest team in baseball history) and our run diff isn't AWFUL.

I know you can't in real life but imagine if we were playing that series with the Rangers now while they are "struggling" offensively (particularly Hamilton,who hit 4 HR in a game off of us).

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If you're using that data to get enjoyment out of the sheer craziness that has been this season so far, then that's fine. And that's cool. If you're using that data to support an argument that this team is going to fall apart, then well, you're missing out on a lot of fun.
I'm going to continue to say that the O's are unlikely to continue this pace without playing better baseball. But it's going to get more and more amazing if it continues.
Is it luck though? Why can't it just be a good bullpen and timely hits?I think luck makes it sound like the O's are winning games because the other team has lost them and that hasn't been happening.You can say unlikely, flukey, unsustainable, but luck rubs me the wrong way.
You can call it what you wish, but I think unlikely, flukey, unsustainable performances above and beyond what can be easily accounted for in the records is what I call "luck".
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We are on the cusp of being taken seriously. If we catch the MFY's we will be, IMO. The pythag/luck argument his the last face saving refrain of the experts who thought we were a 100L team at the beginning of the season and made snarky comments about DD being out of the game for 10 years, etc.

lol to be fair... we made a lot of those snarky comments ourselves at the beginning of the year ;)

When I get home from work today I am going to post a bit of a research project on my blog. I'm trying to answer the question of how the Orioles are beating their pythag SO HANDILY right now.

I think I may have cracked it, or at least come up with something that begins to explain it.

Take a crack at cancer too while you're at it.

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See, that's what I think is squeezing all the fun out of this. Trying to assign reasons and explanations for something that's just happening, mostly for no reason at all. The O's are winning because of good luck and a good bullpen. That's pretty much it, and in that order.

I don't often say this about a Drungo post, but I disagree with this. The pythag itself correlates very well with W/L records over time, but it's still a pretty simple stat that cannot take into account all of the different reasons a team can over/under perform. I think we all recognize that our bullpen has a huge role. Do we also give credit to a power hitting lineup? Perhaps the fact that our OBP is low but we can still hit one out at any time helps account for things? IDK...finding out would be very interesting, to me at least.

If you're using that data to get enjoyment out of the sheer craziness that has been this season so far, then that's fine. And that's cool.

If you're using that data to support an argument that this team is going to fall apart, then well, you're missing out on a lot of fun.

I certainly agree with the bolded part, but using it as an argument that the team will fall apart and using it as an argument for making further improvements are two different things. Small tweaks, like adding an Overbay (for example) and getting one more SP could improve our RS/RL ratio moving forward and improve our odds, perhaps significantly. Ignoring what the data tells us about predicting future success doesn't make any sense. It's a strong indicator. It can be adjusted for our current team (e.g, Tillman, Gonzalez, somewhat improved defense), but it clearly is part of a wide range of statistical and visual observations that DD should be using to improve for the stretch run in August/September.

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According to global warmists, we all should have been under water by now. Only now are they going back to their models from 1998 and saying, whoops, we messed that one up, but you really should believe us about what's about to happen!If the pythag and all other measures fail to account for where the Orioles are now, why should we believe it will accurately predict where the orioles are going? No model can account for the effect Buck has had on this team. Would they be where they are today with Dave Trembley or Sam Perlozzo or Bobby V? Would they be where they are today without Chris Davis stepping up to pitch the 16th and 17th innings at Fenway? Could some model have predicted that JJ Hardy would hit the ball squarely last night in the 7th rather than 1 millimeter higher or lower?Let's just enjoy what seems to be a special group of guys bringing winning back to OPACY.
I completely don't get why you can't embrace the model while celebrating and enjoying the fact that the O's are a 1-in-1000 or 1-in-10,000 outlier.
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I think when people are so focused on the stats, run differentials, Pythagorean W/L stuff and say "this can't last" or "it can't happen", they really miss out on what makes the game so special. Sometimes, just sometimes there is a player or a team that bucks probability/trends/whatever and wins. So far, the Orioles have done this...they've actually done it for so long and so well that it's past luck or a fluke and they just seem to have that knack for pulling it off. It can't be explained. It just needs to be enjoyed.

Spot on man. You can't always use stats as a way to determine an outcome. Sometimes, there is a logical progression that requires measurement, other times, you just need to enjoy the game and let the intangibles take you to the next level.

MSK

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Team	Run Differential	W-L Record	One-run Games	Extra Innings	Playoffs?1973 Tigers	-32	85-77	31-23	6-10	No1982 Giants	-14	87-75	38-28	11-6	No1983 Astros	-3	85-77	29-20	11-9	No1984 Mets	-24	90-72	29-20	11-1	No1987 Twins	-20	85-77	24-22	9-2	Yes1989 Astros	-22	86-76	35-24	11-9	No1997 Giants	-9	90-72	23-17	11-3	Yes2006 Red Sox	-5	86-76	29-29	5-7	No2007 D-backs	-20	90-72	32-20	8-6	Yes2007 Mariners	-19	88-74	27-20	5-2	No2008 Astros	-31	86-75	29-20	5-7	No2009 Tigers	-2	86-77	28-22	6-5	No2009 Mariners	-52	85-77	35-20	9-7	No2011 Giants	-8	86-76	33-22	13-8	No2012 Orioles	-54	59-51	22-6	12-2	???

22-6 in 1 run games!

Holy 22-6 Batman!!!

Are we likely to regress to the mean or is this team just good in a tight spot? If bullpen performance stays on trend, it could be the latter.

Still, I think the stronger starting pitching as of late combined with some bigger run totals is what propels this team from a 1 run statistical outlier to a legitimate playoff threat.

On the other hand, I have no problem remaining a statistical outlier.

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