Soriano Rejects 5 years 70 Million from Nats

[Fan4Life]

Had the Gonzalez taken the $140m contract the Tigers had offered you wouldn't blame the FO when he got hurt and didn't perform? His history said he was fragile.

If a team gives Soriano a 6 year $96m contract and he tops out at an .825 OPS and drops below that as he ages you blame the player instead of the front office even though looking at his career it was forseeable?

While you may blame the players, IMO those are decisions that should get a GM fired.

That's probably not the example I was thinking of when I made that comment. Delgado and Guerrero, Texiera, Helton, are some examples of players that have shown over a period of time what you are likely to get.

[Frobby]

That depends on how you define a proven track record and what you value.

For example, Soriano's track record suggests speed and power. It also suggests poor defense, lots of K's and horrendous plate discipline.

At his age, you figure the speed to become less and less of an asset every year however, if he stays in LF, you figure the defense to become a plus not a negative.

I don't think his track record suggests poor defense in LF. He had 22 assists, and by all accounts he was vastly improved by the end of the year. One publication said he was the best defensive LF in the NL. I don't know about that, but he's no butcher out there.

Soriano drew far more walks this year than in any previous season. I wish I knew why, and whether that is likely to continue or not. If I thought he'd draw 67 walks a year as he did this year, instead of 30-35 as he historically did, it would make a big impact on his value.

Lots of K's - I will live with it.

[Sports Guy]

That's probably not the example I was thinking of when I made that comment. Delgado and Guerrero, Texiera, Helton, are some examples of players that have shown over a period of time what you are likely to get.

Helton is not worth his contract and that will get worse as he goes along.

[Fan4Life]

Helton is not worth his contract and that will get worse as he goes along.

No disagreement here.. but he is fairly consistent..

[Sports Guy]

I don't think his track record suggests poor defense in LF. He had 22 assists, and by all accounts he was vastly improved by the end of the year. One publication said he was the best defensive LF in the NL. I don't know about that, but he's no butcher out there.

But his track record was at second base...As i said, if he stays in LF, his defense will be considered a plus, not a negative.

Soriano drew far more walks this year than in any previous season. I wish I knew why, and whether that is likely to continue or not. If I thought he'd draw 67 walks a year as he did this year, instead of 30-35 as he historically did, it would make a big impact on his value

More IBB this year..He had more IBB this year(16) than he had in his entire career(15). Also, my guess is he was pitched around alot more in that lineup than he was in Texas or NY. I agree if we could even get 67 walks a year out of him, his value goes high but since he usually takes TWO years to do that, i am not holding my breath.

Lots of K's - I will live with it

As can I...Just pointing out what his track record is.

[Sports Guy]

No disagreement here.. but he is fairly consistent..

His OPS has had back to back 100 point drops...His homers have gone from 32-20-15...That isn't consistency.

[geschinger]

That's probably not the example I was thinking of when I made that comment. Delgado and Guerrero, Texiera, Helton, are some examples of players that have shown over a period of time what you are likely to get.

Delgado and Guerrero had much better track records than the jewels of the 2006 Free Agent class. It's too ealry to tell with Teix.

As for Helton, I can only assume you don't realize how much is left of his contract or haven't looked at his numbers recently. He's due $85.5m over the next 5 years. What kind of contract would you advocate giving him if he were a free agent today?

[Baltimoron]

More IBB this year..He had more IBB this year(16) than he had in his entire career(15). Also, my guess is he was pitched around alot more in that lineup than he was in Texas or NY. I agree if we could even get 67 walks a year out of him, his value goes high but since he usually takes TWO years to do that, i am not holding my breath.

Raking = walks

He had 13 more IBB than in 2005. That was somewhat due to Robinson hitting Royce Clayton behind him for 130 abs, but the real reason for the IBBs, as well as the 21 more "regular" walks was the fact that he raked.

Soriano wasn't a remarkably more patient hitter in 06. He got better at laying off breaking balls but the real deal is pitchers were afraid to make a mistake to him.

His walk rate in 06 will be largely determined by how successful he is at repeating his prodigious 06 power numbers.

[Frobby]

More IBB this year..He had more IBB this year(16) than he had in his entire career(15). Also, my guess is he was pitched around alot more in that lineup than he was in Texas or NY. I agree if we could even get 67 walks a year out of him, his value goes high but since he usually takes TWO years to do that, i am not holding my breath.

I figured you'd bring up the IBB. I agree, he won't get 16 of those in our lineup. Whether he was pitched around a lot, I don't know. Of his 51 unintentional walks, he had 25 BB with the bases empty so I would assume he wasn't being pitched around much in that situation. He saw 3.90 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.65 the year before. I'd say there's at least some chance that he used a somewhat more disciplined approach.

[Sports Guy]

I figured you'd bring up the IBB. I agree, he won't get 16 of those in our lineup. Whether he was pitched around a lot, I don't know. Of his 51 unintentional walks, he had 25 BB with the bases empty so I would assume he wasn't being pitched around much in that situation. He saw 3.90 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.65 the year before. I'd say there's at least some chance that he used a somewhat more disciplined approach.

And is that his new approach or was that to get a bigger contract?

We can't go by what he did for one year and ignore the rest of his career.

[Baltimoron]

. Of his 51 unintentional walks, he had 25 BB with the bases empty so I would assume he wasn't being pitched around much in that situation. He saw 3.90 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.65 the year before. I'd say there's at least some chance that he used a somewhat more disciplined approach.

I'm not sure that's a reasonable inference when you consider he also struck out 45 more times than in 05.

[Baltimoron]

And is that his new approach or was that to get a bigger contract?

We can't go by what he did for one year and ignore the rest of his career.

He hit 26 home runs in 04, 36 in 05 and 46 in 06.

[JTrea81]

He hit 26 home runs in 04, 36 in 05 and 46 in 06.

Also keep in mind he hit those 46 home runs while playing half of his games in a less than stellar home run park. He'd probably have hit at least 50 bombs for the O's.

[Baltimoron]

Also keep in mind he hit those 46 home runs while playing half of his games in a less than stellar home run park. He'd probably have hit at least 50 bombs for the O's.

yup. One can't dismiss his increased walk rate as an anomoly without also dismissing his increased HR totals. Walks are positively correlated with HRs. If you think he hits a similar amount or more HRs in B'more, its hard to believe he also won't maintain a similar walk rate.

[luismatos]

Thats not fair. How many times do we read on this board people castigating the Orioles for not having gone after "injured player X" or whatever after said player makes a comeback. "Thats what smart FO's do." is the commone derisive comment. But with Patterson "they got lucky."

No, they did what smart FO's do. It was a smart, good move. They had a good offseason. It was the first since Tejada/Lopez. It was one of the few good ones in a LONG line of poor picks and mismangament. But why do people have such a hard time saying that it was a good offseason independent of the team's final record.

Amen. We had a good offseason, despite the fact that our season was bad. Although, I'm not sure if the acquisition of Benson was that great considering that we gave up the game 1 starter of the NLWCS.