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With 45 games to go, .400 ball gets us to .500+


Frobby

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Not to be overly technical, but Labor Day is September 3, and our four-game home series with the Yankees is September 6-9. You certainly are right that it will be nice to be done with them with 3.5 weeks left in the season.

Yea, I just saw the schedule on the calendar and assumed that was Labor Day weekend (Labor Day is early this year I guess).

Either way, count me in as someone who will continue to root against Boston and Toronto. Despite what we did to the Red Sox last year, our team last year was not nearly as dysfunctional and I'd really rather play them at the end of the September when they're out of it with seemingly nothing to play for.

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We can get to 25 more wins by playing exactly the way we have so far vs our remaining schedule.

Bos (7 games left) * .727 Win % against = 5 wins (Actual = 0 Wins w/ 6 games remaining)

Det (3 games left) * .333 Win % against = 1 win (Actual = 2 Wins)

Tex (3 games left) * .250 Win % against = 1 win (Actual = 1 Win)

Tor (9 games left) * .556 Win % against = 5 wins (Actual = 2 Wins w/ 7 remaining)

CWS (4 games left) * .750 Win % against = 3 wins

NYY (7 games left) * .455 Win % against = 3 wins

TB (6 games left) * .500 Win % against = 3 wins

SEA (3 games left) * .833 Win % against = 2 wins

OAK (3 games left) * .500 Win % against = 2 win

Updated to reflect Rangers series and first 2 games of Blue Jays Series.

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A .343 win % the rest of the way gets us to 82.

A .571 win % the rest of the way gets us to 90.

At this point, it would be epically disappointing not to finish over .500. But we have been epically disappointed numerous times, so I am not counting my chickens unless they are hatched.

I'm starting to wonder if 90 wins will be enough to make the playoffs. I thought so at the beginning of August, but so many wild card contenders have played well that I am no longer sure that 90 is a safe number.

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At this point, it would be epically disappointing not to finish over .500. But we have been epically disappointed numerous times, so I am not counting my chickens unless they are hatched.

I'm starting to wonder if 90 wins will be enough to make the playoffs. I thought so at the beginning of August, but so many wild card contenders have played well that I am no longer sure that 90 is a safe number.

Then I guess we should just win the division to ensure there's no reason to sweat it out! Although I still think we make it if we get to 90 wins. We've got 6 games left against TB and 3 more against Oak, so if we can hold win those series we will be helping our own chances while directly hurting our opponents. Oakland and Anaheim have 7 H2H remaining games as well and they can't both win all of those games so perhaps we'll see one or both of them drop back after the fact. Detroit has a series left with Anaheim and Oakland as well. I guess the point I'm trying to make is there's only so many wins to go around and with our opponents having so many H2H games remaining I think the O's will be in good shape if they take care of their own business and get to 90.

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The Red Sox are a wounded dog. Take them seriously. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz (if healthy), Ross can hit as well or better than most O's hitters.

Ortiz may be done for the year. No reason to rush back through injury for a team not in contention.

He may also be done as a Red Sox!

Man, the joy of 9/28/11 just keeps on coming!

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At this point, it would be epically disappointing not to finish over .500. But we have been epically disappointed numerous times, so I am not counting my chickens unless they are hatched.

I'm starting to wonder if 90 wins will be enough to make the playoffs. I thought so at the beginning of August, but so many wild card contenders have played well that I am no longer sure that 90 is a safe number.

Current teams in the race and the record they have to have the rest of the way to finish with 90 wins:

Yankees - 16-18

Orioles - 20-15

Rays - 20-14

White Sox - 19-16

Tigers - 21-14

Rangers - 14-20

Athletics - 20-15

Angels - 24-10

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Listed below is each team still in the race and their projected record based on win % vs. remaining opponents.

Yankees (74-54)

Jays (9) * .556 win % = 5 wins

Orioles (7) * .545 win % = 4 wins

Rays (6) *.417 win % = 3 wins

Red Sox (6) * .667 win % = 4 wins

A's (3) * .429 win % = 1 win

Twins (3) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Final Record 93-69

Orioles (70-57)

White Sox (3) * .800 win % = 2 wins

Yankees (7) * .455 win % = 3 wins

Jays (7) * .636 win % = 4 wins

Rays (6) * .500 win % = 3 wins

A's (3) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Red Sox (6) * .667 win % = 4 wins

Mariners (3) * .833 win % = 2 wins

Final Record 90-72

Rays (70-58)

Rangers (5) * .500 win % = 3 wins

Jays (7) * .818 win % = 6 wins

Yankees (6) * .583 win % = 3 wins

Red Sox (6) * .417 win % = 3 wins

White Sox (4) * .000 win % = 0 wins

Orioles (6) * .500 win % = 3 wins

Final Record 88-74

White Sox (71-56)

Orioles (3) * .200 win % = 1 win

Tigers (7) * .364 win % = 3 wins

Twins (6) * .750 win % = 5 wins

Royals (6) * .333 win % = 2 wins

Angels (3) * .600 win % = 2 wins

Rays (4) * 1.000 win % = 4 wins

Indians (6) * .667 win % = 4 wins

Final Record 92-70

Tigers (69-58)

Royals (10) * .875 win % = 9 wins

White Sox (7) * .636 win % = 4 wins

Indians (6) * .417 win % = 3 wins

Angels (3) * .714 win % = 2 wins

A's (3) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Twins (6) * .583 win % = 3 wins

Final Record 92-70

Rangers (76-52)

Rays (5) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Indians (6) * .333 win % = 2 wins

Royals (4) * .400 win % = 2 wins

Mariners (6) * .538 win % = 3 wins

Angels (6) * .462 win % = 3 wins

A's (7) * .500 win % = 4 wins

Final Record 92-70

A's (70-57)

Indians (3) * .714 win % = 2 wins

Red Sox (3) * .833 win % = 2 wins

Angels (7) * .583 win % = 4 wins

Mariners (6) * .462 win % = 3 wins

Rangers (7) * .500 win % = 3 wins

Tigers (3) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Yankees (3) * .571 win % = 2 wins

Orioles (3) * .500 win % = 1 win

Final Record 88-74

Angels (66-62)

Red Sox (3) * 1.000 win % = 3 wins

Mariners (9) * .600 win % = 5 wins

A's (7) * .417 win % = 3 wins

Royals (3) * .500 win % = 2 wins

Rangers (6) * .538 win % = 3 wins

White Sox (3) * .400 win % = 1 win

Tigers (3) * .286 win % = 1 win

Final Record 84-78

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The O's are now 64-53 with 45 games to play. 18 wins gets them to 82 for the season. That requires only .400 baseball from here on out.

Right now, I'm focused more on the ~26 wins it would take to assure a playoff spot than the 18 wins it would take to be over .500 for the season. Since it is actually possible to aim high, that's what I'm doing. Heck, Buck says he is still focused on catching the Yankees, who "only" have a six game lead on us. Hey, we need to make up less than one win per week to catch them, so why not?

You lost me Frobby, unless the title of the post is sarcastic. Flew right over my head (easy to do, ask anyone.).

No more threads about ending the season with a winning record- I'm too busy watching the O's playoff hunt. :)

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