Anyone worried about Machado's bat?

[Babypowder]

I would argue that MM is a real 2 or 3 hitter. He takes a lot of pitches, makes good contact, and hits line drives. He will be hitting like 2005 version of BRob next season.

His plate discipline has been a concern so far...

[Hallas]

His plate discipline has been a concern so far...

Strictly speaking, his plate discipline isn't that bad. Middle of the road o-swing (30.3%) and z-swing (62.6%). Furthermore, his contact rates are pretty normal too in both cases (68% o-contact, 84.5% z-contact).

For comparison's sake, league average is 31.5% o-swing, 62.0% z-swing, 66.2% o-contact, 86.0% z-contact.

His discipline looks even better if you use the pitch f/x tracking instead of whatever else fangraphs uses.

The biggest thing is that pitchers are pitching him in the zone. His zone% is 48.4%, versus 44.1% in the rest of the league. As far as I can tell, Manny's not drawing walks because pitchers aren't throwing him balls. This appears to be a respect thing with opposing pitchers, not a plate discipline thing with Manny.

Obviously you're associating plate discipline with walk rate, which usually works out, but in this case there's a pretty big discrepancy between the two.

[LookitsPuck]

He's doing just fine for only 19 (recently turned 20). 781 OPS, 286 BA, and a 484 SLG are nothing to sneeze at. The OBP is a bit alarming, but we're talking only 94 plate appearances, and pitchers are coming right at him being that he's young, lower in the order, doesn't have much protection, etc.

I think the walks will come with time. You're talking about a kid with really only 928 plate appearances in the minors. He did have a 263 BA and a 344 OBP for about an 80 point split. Pretty good.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Holy hyperbole, Batman! Machado has made 47 plays at 3B in the 17 games since he got here. That's about 8 plays in a 3-game series. He is probably making less than one play per series that Betemit wouldn't make. But that's plenty.

I disagree completely with what you are saying. Less than one play per series???? Are you kidding? He's making several plays a NIGHT that Betemit couldn't make.

You are nuts.

[DrungoHazewood]

I disagree completely with what you are saying. Less than one play per series???? Are you kidding? He's making several plays a NIGHT that Betemit couldn't make.

You are nuts.

Since Betemit is making 2.31 successful plays per nine innings at third, and Machado is making 2.58, you're suggesting that the ball distribution is way off. In other words, when Machado is playing third dramatically fewer balls are hit his direction. Right? Otherwise your statement makes no sense.

[Babypowder]

Strictly speaking, his plate discipline isn't that bad. Middle of the road o-swing (30.3%) and z-swing (62.6%). Furthermore, his contact rates are pretty normal too in both cases (68% o-contact, 84.5% z-contact).

For comparison's sake, league average is 31.5% o-swing, 62.0% z-swing, 66.2% o-contact, 86.0% z-contact.

His discipline looks even better if you use the pitch f/x tracking instead of whatever else fangraphs uses.

The biggest thing is that pitchers are pitching him in the zone. His zone% is 48.4%, versus 44.1% in the rest of the league. As far as I can tell, Manny's not drawing walks because pitchers aren't throwing him balls. This appears to be a respect thing with opposing pitchers, not a plate discipline thing with Manny.

Obviously you're associating plate discipline with walk rate, which usually works out, but in this case there's a pretty big discrepancy between the two.

Good work. You're right I was just looking at walk rate and hadn't dove into it to that degree.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Since Betemit is making 2.31 successful plays per nine innings at third, and Machado is making 2.58, you're suggesting that the ball distribution is way off. In other words, when Machado is playing third dramatically fewer balls are hit his direction. Right? Otherwise your statement makes no sense.

Use your eyes........not garbage statistics that prove nothing. Or don't, I really don't care. But if you think there isn't a DRAMATIC difference between Betemit's defense and Machado's you are insane. That number doesn't even come close to showing what is really going on over there. Range, arm strength, ability to come in and make plays on the run, we've seen it over and over......

.27???? Wow......I'm sold.....that number certainly means alot.....to someone......somewhere.....who can't use his eyes or brain.

[DrungoHazewood]

Use your eyes........not garbage statistics that prove nothing. Or don't' date=' I really don't care. But if you think there isn't a DRAMATIC difference between Betemit's defense and Machado's you are insane. That number doesn't even come close to showing what is really going on over there. Range, arm strength, ability to come in and make plays on the run, we've seen it over and over......

.27???? Wow......I'm sold.....that number certainly means alot.....to someone......somewhere.....who can't use his eyes or brain.[/quote']

So... what you're saying is that Machado makes a heck of a lot of plays when the guys writing down the plays are out getting a beer? Or that everyone is afraid to hit balls to Manny? I don't know what I'm missing here. Manny actually, really, in real life, is making about a quarter of a play a game that Betemit isn't. He's also making fewer errors. That's significant. He's making outs that Betemit isn't. But he simply isn't making 2 plays a game more than Betemit. That's loopy, that's crazy. You'd be suggesting that Manny was more than 300 plays better than Betemit over a full season. That's something like 130 runs, or thereabouts. Which means what you're claiming is impossible.

You're suggesting that the difference between Manny's glove and Betemit's is a lot greater than the difference between Albert Pujols' bat and Cesar Izturis' bat.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Well yes, obviously the two to 3 plays a game was over the top, but you honestly are making the statement that it's less than one play a game difference and I'm telling you that is simply just not the case.

He gets to ball's Wilson can't. He has a much stronger arm and is much more accurate. He makes teams think twice about bunting where Wilson actually encouraged teams to bunt for base hit's against us. His range is also significantly greater.

Whatever stat you are using to prove he is barely doing anything more than Wilson game in and game out, it's garbage. Complete and utter garbage.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well yes' date=' obviously the two to 3 plays a game was over the top, but you honestly are making the statement that it's less than one play a game difference and I'm telling you that is simply just not the case.

He gets to ball's Wilson can't. He has a much stronger arm and is much more accurate. He makes teams think twice about bunting where Wilson actually encouraged teams to bunt for base hit's against us. His range is also significantly greater.

Whatever stat you are using to prove he is barely doing anything more than Wilson game in and game out, it's garbage. Complete and utter garbage.[/quote']

Yea, the stat sucks. It's called "watching the game and counting how many balls they field".

[Va Beach O's fan]

Yea, the stat sucks. It's called "watching the game and counting how many balls they field".

Do you think every stat that has ever been invented is worthwhile? Are you one of THOSE guys. Watch the game and watch the way they play defense. It might actually be Pujols to Izturis close.....that is how bad Betemit was in the field.

[Can_of_corn]

Do you think every stat that has ever been invented is worthwhile? Are you one of THOSE guys. Watch the game and watch the way they play defense. It might actually be Pujols to Izturis close.....that is how bad Betemit was in the field.

I can't speak for Drungo but I think there are a lot of useless stats out there. Stuff like saves, RBI's, pitching wins.

I think actually counting the plays the fielders make is a pretty good stat.

BTW .27 with a lower error rate is significant.

[Frobby]

His plate discipline has been a concern so far...

Strictly speaking, his plate discipline isn't that bad. Middle of the road o-swing (30.3%) and z-swing (62.6%). Furthermore, his contact rates are pretty normal too in both cases (68% o-contact, 84.5% z-contact).

For comparison's sake, league average is 31.5% o-swing, 62.0% z-swing, 66.2% o-contact, 86.0% z-contact.

His discipline looks even better if you use the pitch f/x tracking instead of whatever else fangraphs uses.

The biggest thing is that pitchers are pitching him in the zone. His zone% is 48.4%, versus 44.1% in the rest of the league. As far as I can tell, Manny's not drawing walks because pitchers aren't throwing him balls. This appears to be a respect thing with opposing pitchers, not a plate discipline thing with Manny.

Obviously you're associating plate discipline with walk rate, which usually works out, but in this case there's a pretty big discrepancy between the two.

Machado's minor league stats suggest he will draw his share of walks once he is fully adjusted to MLB. That may take another year.

[Frobby]

It is an undeniable statistical fact that Machado handles fewer than three chances a game. You simply can't make several more plays per game than another guy when your total chances are that low. Your position on this issue just makes no logical sense.

Do you think every stat that has ever been invented is worthwhile? Are you one of THOSE guys. Watch the game and watch the way they play defense. It might actually be Pujols to Izturis close.....that is how bad Betemit was in the field.

[Va Beach O's fan]

It's not entirely about what he is or isn't doing. It's about what he represents. Teams know they can no longer just bunt it down to third base for an automatic hit. They know that we have a real 3b who can gun out even the fastest of runners. It takes away an option for a hitter in the box who is trying to get on base.

Yes, he doesn't handle that many extra plays or make that many extra players per game, but that doesn't take into account the fact that teams are much less likely to bunt or even try to bunt for a hit against Machado than they were against Wilson.

That counts for something and it isn't measured in this statistic. Also the error rates are significant as well.