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Mark Reynolds Value Hard to Measure


brianod

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Half way through the year, the majority of this board was ready to bench Mark Reynolds (including myself). After the 3rd Yankees game, most were probably ready to extend him at 8-10 million per year. After today? It doesn't bother me that he struck out three times and went 0-4. The only thing about today that really bothers me is his third at bat. We are up 3-0 and have runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. We can put the Blue Jays away. He goes 3-2 and strikes out. You just have got to hit the ball in that situation. Get at least one run home. Usually strike outs don't matter. But, sometimes they do. You can't value him based on homeruns and obp. You have to include all variables including average and strikeouts in the package because we were genereally lucky to win this game. Soon after we leave those runners on base and let the Blue Jays stay in the game, they get bases loaded and 1 out against Ayala who has done less then a stellar job keeping inherited runners on base. Ayala does a fabulous job with a K and a flyout to hold the Blue Jays to no runs. But, it seems to go unnoticed how genually close this game was to a loss. One hit against Ayala in that situation and it could have been a loss.

The point of this post isn't to dump on Reynolds. Reynolds seems to be reverting to form with his power. He is capable of carrying a team when he's hot. BUT, I'm glad it's not me trying to figure out how much he's worth...

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Half way through the year, the majority of this board was ready to bench Mark Reynolds (including myself). After the 3rd Yankees game, most were probably ready to extend him at 8-10 million per year. After today? It doesn't bother me that he struck out three times and went 0-4. The only thing about today that really bothers me is his third at bat. We are up 3-0 and have runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. We can put the Blue Jays away. He goes 3-2 and strikes out. You just have got to hit the ball in that situation. Get at least one run home. Usually strike outs don't matter. But, sometimes they do. You can't value him based on homeruns and obp. You have to include all variables including average and strikeouts in the package because we were genereally lucky to win this game. Soon after we leave those runners on base and let the Blue Jays stay in the game, they get bases loaded and 1 out against Ayala who has done less then a stellar job keeping inherited runners on base. Ayala does a fabulous job with a K and a flyout to hold the Blue Jays to no runs. But, it seems to go unnoticed how genually close this game was to a loss. One hit against Ayala in that situation and it could have been a loss.

The point of this post isn't to dump on Reynolds. Reynolds seems to be reverting to form with his power. He is capable of carrying a team when he's hot. BUT, I'm glad it's not me trying to figure out how much he's worth...

The offensive value really isn't that hard to understand. The BA and K's have been explained about a hundred times or more.

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The offensive value really isn't that hard to understand. The BA and K's have been explained about a hundred times or more.

There's very small error bars when it comes to calculating offensive value. Linear weights, RC, whatever... pretty dead on. It might feel like players such as Reynolds break the model. But they don't.

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There's very small error bars when it comes to calculating offensive value. Linear weights, RC, whatever... pretty dead on. It might feel like players such as Reynolds break the model. But they don't.

BS. They do break the model. The only reason that you would think they don't is if you a slave to statistics and can't think outside the model

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Half way through the year, the majority of this board was ready to bench Mark Reynolds (including myself). After the 3rd Yankees game, most were probably ready to extend him at 8-10 million per year. After today? It doesn't bother me that he struck out three times and went 0-4. The only thing about today that really bothers me is his third at bat. We are up 3-0 and have runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. We can put the Blue Jays away. He goes 3-2 and strikes out. You just have got to hit the ball in that situation. Get at least one run home. Usually strike outs don't matter. But, sometimes they do. You can't value him based on homeruns and obp. You have to include all variables including average and strikeouts in the package because we were genereally lucky to win this game. Soon after we leave those runners on base and let the Blue Jays stay in the game, they get bases loaded and 1 out against Ayala who has done less then a stellar job keeping inherited runners on base. Ayala does a fabulous job with a K and a flyout to hold the Blue Jays to no runs. But, it seems to go unnoticed how genually close this game was to a loss. One hit against Ayala in that situation and it could have been a loss.

The point of this post isn't to dump on Reynolds. Reynolds seems to be reverting to form with his power. He is capable of carrying a team when he's hot. BUT, I'm glad it's not me trying to figure out how much he's worth...

You are talking about an unproductive out. This team makes a lot of them, and I'd bet Reynolds isn't the leader in this dept. It would be interesting to see some numbers, to find out who the biggest rally killing culprits are and how they compare to the rest of the league.
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Reynolds also saw 27 pitches in his five at bats. The Orioles saw 170 total pitches in the game, which means that Reynolds 15.9% of the team's total pitches - a pretty impressive total especially when you consider that he reached base only once. That's another skill and a big contribution he brings to the team along with good defense at 1B (he made another nice stretch on the bunt to Machado), ability to draw walks, and the obvious power. The point being that Reynolds has a lot of positive skills. He does not hit for a high average and strikes out a lot. How one computes Reynolds' worth comes down to how much value is placed on strikes outs/hitting for average relative to the other four or five positive skills that Reynolds brings to the table.

I am not saying you did this on purpose, but Wieters struck out with runners on first and third (before Jones stole second) and nobody out in that same inning. It happens. It would be nice if Reynolds was a player that could put the ball in play on command in addition to being patient, hitting for power, drawing walks, and playing good defense. But guess what? If he did, he would be one of the better players in the league then. I think it is pretty clear that Reynolds has significant value to a Major League team even if there are things he doesn't necessarily do well.

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You are talking about an unproductive out. This team makes a lot of them, and I'd bet Reynolds isn't the leader in this dept. It would be interesting to see some numbers, to find out who the biggest rally killing culprits are and how they compare to the rest of the league.

Start with JJ batting 2nd. How many low and outside pitches has he yanked to the ss for double plays. I love Buck but his stubborness batting Hardy second is miopic.

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Reynolds also saw 27 pitches in his five at bats. The Orioles saw 170 total pitches in the game, which means that Reynolds 15.9% of the team's total pitches - a pretty impressive total especially when you consider that he reached base only once. That's another skill and a big contribution he brings to the team along with good defense at 1B (he made another nice stretch on the bunt to Machado), ability to draw walks, and the obvious power. The point being that Reynolds has a lot of positive skills. He does not hit for a high average and strikes out a lot. How one computes Reynolds' worth comes down to how much value is placed on strikes outs/hitting for average relative to the other four or five positive skills that Reynolds brings to the table.

I am not saying you did this on purpose, but Wieters struck out with runners on first and third (before Jones stole second) and nobody out in that same inning. It happens. It would be nice if Reynolds was a player that could put the ball in play on command in addition to being patient, hitting for power, drawing w

alks, and playing good defense. But guess what? If he did, he would be one of the better players in the league then. I think it is pretty clear that Reynolds has significant value to a Major League team even if there are things he doesn't necessarily do well.

Very good point. And definitely a positive when it comes to evaluation.

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BS. They do break the model. The only reason that you would think they don't is if you a slave to statistics and can't think outside the model

No they really don't. Reynolds is about 9-10% over average (in terms of what average offensive player creates in terms of runs (i.e value)). If he were an average defensive first baseman that would likely make him a bit below average overall. His offensive range of production has been very tight over his career. As far as the K's go, you could subtract 2-3 runs based on 100K's over average. That detracts a bit, but basically means almost nothing as far as his value.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say the stats may make Reynolds more predictable than most. The holes in his game (like his high K rate and low BA) would indicate he has limited upside and won't develop into a very high OPS guy, while his batting eye/plate discipline and power assure him of not falling off the offensive table very much.

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Mark is really, really good at making us forget all the months he provides negative-to-zero value. He's had a great August, he may have a great September, but next year I would be perfectly fine with a more boring, consistent player at first.

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There's very small error bars when it comes to calculating offensive value. Linear weights, RC, whatever... pretty dead on. It might feel like players such as Reynolds break the model. But they don't.

Exactly. If anything, players like Reynolds are what they were designed to capture.

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Mark is really, really good at making us forget all the months he provides negative-to-zero value. He's had a great August, he may have a great September, but next year I would be perfectly fine with a more boring, consistent player at first.
Like who? Who in our system do you think would be more productive? Among FA would you prefer Napoli or LaRoche?
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