Mark Reynolds Value Hard to Measure

[CA-ORIOLE]

No we won't, he is under club control next year.

I think it's entirely possible he could be non-tendered. Might depend on how he finishes.

[MurphDogg]

I think it's entirely possible he could be non-tendered. Might depend on how he finishes.

Would you care to make a wager on that?

[El Gordo]

Well the miumim we could offer him in arbitation would be 6 mil, so I'm guessing he won't take that.

We can buy out his option, but he still has to go to arbitration, unless we non tender him or negotiate a new contact, right? He really has no choice in the matter except for choosing his arbitration number.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Would you care to make a wager on that?

Maybe. Lets see how he finishes first and then I'll come up with some odds.

[I Love The O's]

I think we have to also look at the bigger picture with Reynolds. He sure seems like he is a good team player and adds to the great spirit of the team. I even liked when he was ejected from the game a few weeks ago. I agree with the person who said we have to look deeper than the stats. I think the great thing about this team is the attitudes of the players and the excellent manager and bullpen. It's not just about the stats and talent levels, the Orioles are proving that, and it has been fun to watch. As for Reynolds, he is playing a great 1st base. I have no problem with him being our 1st baseman going forward the next few years.

[CA-ORIOLE]

We can buy out his option, but he still has to go to arbitration, unless we non tender him or negotiate a new contact, right? He really has no choice in the matter except for choosing his arbitration number.

Right, but the minumim we could even offer him is 6 mil, so why would he accept 6 mil pre-arb? If we nontender him, that's a different story and will depend on what the market is.

[Roll Tide]

Right, but the minumim we could even offer him is 6 mil, so why would he accept 6 mil pre-arb? If we nontender him, that's a different story and will depend on what the market is.

They should offer him a 2 year contract worth around $15-$16 Million. I'd even add bonus money at 30, 35, 40, & 45 homers.

[Va Beach O's fan]

sure, they cost 2-3 runs a season.

Bs........It costs far more than that. It's all hypothetical but it could kill a rally that could produce quite a few runs or even win or lose a ballgame.

To say it only costs 2 to 3 runs over the course of an ENTIRE season though is absurd and I really could care less what metric you are attempting to use to prove something like that because it doesn't take into account the potential of things like rally's killed etc.

[baltfan]

I think the Orioles will retain him. Buck likes him at first and will want to give him a full year there to see how he does offensively when he doesn't have to worry about his defense.

[waroriole]

BS. They do break the model. The only reason that you would think they don't is if you a slave to statistics and can't think outside the model

Man, over the last few weeks you've turned into the biggest tool on here. If you don't want to believe in these stats, then don't. But, don't go around insulting intelligent posters who answer your questions.

[waroriole]

They should offer him a 2 year contract worth around $15-$16 Million. I'd even add bonus money at 30, 35, 40, & 45 homers.

You can't give bonuses based on performance.

[GoldGlove21]

Bs........It costs far more than that. It's all hypothetical but it could kill a rally that could produce quite a few runs or even win or lose a ballgame.

To say it only costs 2 to 3 runs over the course of an ENTIRE season though is absurd and I really could care less what metric you are attempting to use to prove something like that because it doesn't take into account the potential of things like rally's killed etc.

So the inability to move a runner along due to a strikeout hurts the team more than the inability to do so when a ball is put in play? I see your point, but it is all situational and that is how I would look at it. I have a bigger issue with the teams lack of speed (stolen bases) and the inability of certain players to lay down successful bunts when asked.

[DrungoHazewood]

Defensive metrics can be so bad sometimes. This is part SSS I'm sure, and part they just aren't that accurate still. Since we all watch the games, I think we can tell Reynolds is fielding like a champ lately.

I realize that defensive metrics aren't as accruate as offensive numbers, but you're basically suggesting that a player who's hitting .250/.290/.340 could be "hitting like a champ" because we've all watched him hit a bunch of line drives over the last couple months. You can't totally dismiss defensive metrics because they sometimes disagree with completely subjective observations. Well, I mean, you can, but it doesn't make any sense.

BB ref says the major league average for moving a runner over with the first out or knocking in a runner with the second out is 32%, while the Orioles average 31%. Reynolds is worst on the Orioles, at 14%. To put it in perspective, Reynolds has had 36 opportunities and made a productive out 5 times, whereas average would be 11-12. So he failed to advance a runner 6-7 more times than average. Maybe that cost 4-5 runs over the season so far.

I'm glad to see my eyes don't deceive me all the time:) Little things like this win and lose games and have to be considered in player evaluation imo.

They're called the little things because they have far less impact than the big things. When bb-ref says Reynolds has been five runs better than average with the bat I have no reason to distrust that, and you have no objective reason to, either.

[notfast]

I dont know if its been mentioned, but I feel like Reynolds is a clubhouse leader and provides a lot more than what is shown on the field.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Bs........It costs far more than that. It's all hypothetical but it could kill a rally that could produce quite a few runs or even win or lose a ballgame.

To say it only costs 2 to 3 runs over the course of an ENTIRE season though is absurd and I really could care less what metric you are attempting to use to prove something like that because it doesn't take into account the potential of things like rally's killed etc.

Sure is a lot of BS calling. The situations where K's don't move over a runner are mostly washed by less DP's in situations with there is a runner on first base. In the end an out is an out. Yes that's an aggregate analysis that several studies have shown. Yes' date=' if you cherry pick situations where a "productive out" would have counted for a run or a win and ignore situations where a K would have more value than a groundball out/potential DP, then the numbers will work in your favor.

http://www.tangotiger.net/strikeout.html