Mark Reynolds Value Hard to Measure

[CA-ORIOLE]

They're called the little things because they have far less impact than the big things. When bb-ref says Reynolds has been five runs better than average with the bat I have no reason to distrust that, and you have no objective reason to, either.

One minor nitpick. 5% better in OPS+ (assuming this is what you meant) should probably not be defined as 5% better with the bat imo. 5% better in OPS+ is equal to 9% better with the bat in terms of wRC+ in this case (Reynolds).

[wildcard]

Reynolds has improved his value a great deal this year. He is now a two way player. His defensive improvement at 1B no longer makes him a liability in the field.

GMs pay for the performance they expect to get from a player. I think on a normal year Mark will give a team 30-40 homer, 85-95 RBI, 800ish OPS and 200 strikeouts. He is not a clean up hitter for most of the season but in the 6th or 7th spot in the lineup he is quite productive. And now that he is average or better on defense at 1B he is an asset at 29 years old.

Because of his current salary the O's have to pay him around 8M/yr. I think for the production he brings he is probably worth that to the O's.

[brianod]

I agree it should be weighed. But the fact that he is hitting .289/.404/.632 with runners in scoring position also has to get weighed.

Yes, I agree. Hence, my post. There isn't really a good summary stat for DD to go by. Since most of DD's decisions have been right on so far, hopefully, he gets this right.

[brianod]

Bs........It costs far more than that. It's all hypothetical but it could kill a rally that could produce quite a few runs or even win or lose a ballgame.

To say it only costs 2 to 3 runs over the course of an ENTIRE season though is absurd and I really could care less what metric you are attempting to use to prove something like that because it doesn't take into account the potential of things like rally's killed etc.

I agree with this

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes, I agree. Hence, my post. There isn't really a good summary stat for DD to go by. Since most of DD's decisions have been right on so far, hopefully, he gets this right.

Yeah, actually there is...a career wRC+ of 109 and not much variation from it really. Hopefully he won't be focused on RISP numbers, BA, and K's.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I agree with this

Why is that surprising.

[Frobby]

Bs........It costs far more than that. It's all hypothetical but it could kill a rally that could produce quite a few runs or even win or lose a ballgame.

To say it only costs 2 to 3 runs over the course of an ENTIRE season though is absurd and I really could care less what metric you are attempting to use to prove something like that because it doesn't take into account the potential of things like rally's killed etc.

Here's the point: so far this season (which is 83% complete), Reynolds has failed to advance a runner 7 fewer times than the average player. So, let's call it 8-9 times over an entire season. But it's not like every time a runner gets advanced, he eventually scores. Sometimes, they don't. So, those 8-9 times probably translate to 5-6 fewer runs (I'd say 2-3 runs is too low) than you'd get from a player who was average at advancing runners.

At the same time, the average player isn't hitting .289/.408/.632 with runners in scoring position, like Reynolds is.

[brianod]

Man, over the last few weeks you've turned into the biggest tool on here. If you don't want to believe in these stats, then don't. But, don't go around insulting intelligent posters who answer your questions.

Please disagree without insulting me. I believe you try to summarize everything into UZIs and WAR and real life isn't that simple. You need to watch the game. Their is still a place in this game for human judgment. Not everything can be measured. You disagree. Fine. We are diametrically opposed on the issue. See, I can make a point without insulting you, you should try to do the same thing.

[SteveA]

They don't. FB and UZR have him at -3 RS and Rtot has him at -8.

Of course one of the big things he has brought to defense at 1B is his ability to handle bad throws,

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe either of those defensive metrics even ATTEMPTS to measure that extremely important component of a 1Bman's defense.

We should stop calling them "defensive metrics" and call them what they are, "range metrics" so no one gets the idea they in any even attempt to provide a complete assessment of a 1Bman's defensive contributions.

Sent from my DROID Pro using Tapatalk 2

[brianod]

Yeah, actually there is...a career wRC+ of 109 and not much variation from it really. Hopefully he won't be focused on RISP numbers, BA, and K's.

How much is a career wRC+ of 109 worth in todays game?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Here's the point: so far this season (which is 83% complete), Reynolds has failed to advance a runner 7 fewer times than the average player. So, let's call it 8-9 times over an entire season. But it's not like every time a runner gets advanced, he eventually scores. Sometimes, they don't. So, those 8-9 times probably translate to 5-6 fewer runs (I'd say 2-3 runs is too low) than you'd get from a player who was average at advancing runners.

At the same time, the average player isn't hitting .289/.408/.632 with runners in scoring position, like Reynolds is.

I really would not get too focused on a single years worh of RISP stats. Reynolds career BA is 18 points above his career BA with RISP and maybe he does focus more in those situations, but the overall RISP numbers are driven up by a high percentage of walks when he's either pitched around or IBB'd. It is interesting that he seams to peform better with men on base (with the single exception of the bases loaded) in general though. In the end I suppose that's because when he is pitched around that actually plays to his strength. When pitchers throw him strikes and get ahead they are far more effective against him.

[CA-ORIOLE]

How much is a career wRC+ of 109 worth in todays game?

For an average defensive first baseman, I would guess 6-8 mil is about right.

[Frobby]

I really would not get too focused on a single years worh of RISP stats. Reynolds career BA is 18 points above his career BA with RISP and maybe he does focus more in those situations, but the overall RISP numbers are driven up by a high percentage of walks when he's either pitched around or IBB'd. It is interesting that he seams to peform better with men on base (with the single exception of the bases loaded) in general though. In the end I suppose that's because when he is pitched around that actually plays to his strength. When pitchers throw him strikes and get ahead they are far more effective against him.

I mainly cited this year's RISP stats because we were discussing this year's "productive out" stats. His "productive out" rate this year is lower than his career average, so if his value is going to be dinged for that, you have to give him the credit for having a better than average year with RISP, too.

To put it in career terms, Reynolds has a productive out about 22% of the time, compared to 32% league average. He averages about 50 opportunities a year, so he makes maybe 5 fewer productive outs in a season than the average player. But, you'd need to weigh that against his .254/.359/.507 OPS in RISP situations. Overall, I'd still say he's a pretty good guy to have up with runners on base, despite his strikeout tendencies and his (related) tendency not to make productive outs.

I think it's important for people to realize that the average major leaguer only makes a productive out in 32% of his opportunities. It's not like advancing runners on an out is automatic in MLB.

[crissfan172]

They don't. FB and UZR have him at -3 RS and Rtot has him at -8.

Based on what...80 games? Yeah...there's pretty much no value that can be put into those numbers with a sample size that small.

[DrungoHazewood]

One minor nitpick. 5% better in OPS+ (assuming this is what you meant) should probably not be defined as 5% better with the bat imo. 5% better in OPS+ is equal to 9% better with the bat in terms of wRC+ in this case (Reynolds).

No, what I meant was bb-ref says Reynolds has been worth five batting runs, or that's he five runs better than an average hitter.