I was wrong about Davis

[hoosiers]

This team needs some upgrades. The only "core" I would commit to for next year is Jones, Wieters, Machado and Markakis.

While it seems likely that Hardy (SS), Reynolds (1B), Davis/McClouth/Reimold/Hoes for LF/4th OF, etc, there are too many scenarios to deal Hardy, Schoop, Davis, Reimold, Matusz, Arrieta, etc or sign a FA to commit to much else right now. I like our guys a lot, but IMO it is not a 90 or so win team on paper in 2013 and I hope our GM does not stop working combinations until we have that type of team entering Opening Day 2013. Of above average acquisitions/signings this offseason, three need to be at 2B, LF, 1B and SP.

[wildcard]

I still think Betemit has a role as a LHB. His career OPS vs. RHP is .824. Buck could move him around between 1B/3B/DH against righties if he wants to give Reynolds/Manny/Davis a break. At the very least, he could be the primary pinch hitter late in games.

If you have watched what DD does with payroll you would see a hint that Betemit may be traded. He will make 2M that DD can probably use better elsewhere. DD traded Lindstrom because he is going to use the 4M that he was going to make better on other players. Yes, Betemit has a good average and a good OPS vs righthanded pitching, but he is redundant with Davis at DH. He is not going to play that much at 1B and he can't play 3b or the OF. He is the kind of player the DD is likely to move. Andino is probably 2nd on that list. Andino is arbitration eligible and is line for 2M also. He didn't hit enough to be worth that to DD IMO.

DD will have to add some cheaper players to the team to afford the increases that are coming for Wieters, Jim Johnson, Markakis, Jones and to sign McLouth that this team need much more than Betemit. The backup players that are making increasing salaries are vulnerable IMO.

[VeveJones007]

If you have watched what DD does with payroll you would see a hint that Betemit may be traded. He will make 2M that DD can probably use better elsewhere. DD traded Lindstrom because he is going to use the 4M that he was going to make better on other players. Yes, Betemit has a good average and a good OPS vs righthanded pitching, but he is redundant with Davis at DH. He is not going to play that much at 1B and he can't play 3b or the OF. He is the kind of player the DD is likely to move. Andino is probably 2nd on that list. Andino is arbitration eligible and is line for 2M also. He didn't hit enough to be worth that to DD IMO.

DD will have to add some cheaper players to the team to afford the increases that are coming for Wieters, Jim Johnson, Markakis, Jones and to sign McLouth that this team need much more than Betemit. The backup players that are making increasing salaries are vulnerable IMO.

I completely understand what you're saying, but my point was that an .824 OPS against righties and the ability to trot out there and play in three spots is probably worth $2 million. I think that's why they signed Betemit in the first place.

DD may trade him. He also may use Betemit's presence to keep Reynold's demands in check.

[O's84]

People are overlooking the obvious role for Davis.

SP

#1 Chris Davis

#2 Jason Hammel

#3 Wei Yin Chen

#4 Chris Tillman

#5 Miguel Gonzalez

[wildcard]

I completely understand what you're saying, but my point was that an .824 OPS against righties and the ability to trot out there and play in three spots is probably worth $2 million. I think that's why they signed Betemit in the first place.

This team has changed a lot since Betemit was signed. Machado was in A ball, Reynolds was losing weight to try to show he could be a good 3B and Davis hadn't been able to play a full season in the majors yet. Now Betemit is redundant. He has proved he should not play 3B. He can't play the OF. He is really a backup 1B/DH that probably can't get much playing time at either position. I agree he is a decent bench player if someone gets hurt. I just think that DD probably thinks he can find those skills for less.

[brianod]

This team has changed a lot since Betemit was signed. Machado was in A ball, Reynolds was losing weight to try to show he could be a good 3B and Davis hadn't been able to play a full season in the majors yet. Now Betemit is redundant. He has proved he should not play 3B. He can't play the OF. He is really a backup 1B/DH that probably can't get much playing time at either position. I agree he is a decent bench player if someone gets hurt. I just think that DD probably thinks he can find those skills for less.

Pay the man 2 million. We aren't the A's. Saving a million and taking a chance on getting nothing instead of paying 2 million and knowing what you are going to get is a no brainer imo.

[Frobby]

I see your point. But it is opinion thing. I think of Roenicke and Lowenstein as core players on the 83 WS team. They weren't All-Stars like Eddie and Cal but the were as core as Dempsey or Dauer. And surely Dempsey and Dauer were core. So under that line of thinking Davis is core to the current O's team. Davis will end up with over 500 at bats and probably 30 homers and right now he is second in OPS to only Adam Jones on the team among hitters that will end up is 500 at bats.

I think we are just using slightly different definitions of "core;" I don't think we really disagree on Davis's potential future with the team, however one labels him. Davis has had enough success this year for me to want to see him play roughly the same amount next year. However, if Markakis and Reimold are both healthy, I suspect he will play a little less. My core guys are Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Hardy and Machado. Those guys will rarely sit out a game when they're healthy.

[Baltoravensrule]

This team needs some upgrades. The only "core" I would commit to for next year is Jones, Wieters, Machado and Markakis.

While it seems likely that Hardy (SS), Reynolds (1B), Davis/McClouth/Reimold/Hoes for LF/4th OF, etc, there are too many scenarios to deal Hardy, Schoop, Davis, Reimold, Matusz, Arrieta, etc or sign a FA to commit to much else right now. I like our guys a lot, but IMO it is not a 90 or so win team on paper in 2013 and I hope our GM does not stop working combinations until we have that type of team entering Opening Day 2013. Of above average acquisitions/signings this offseason, three need to be at 2B, LF, 1B and SP.

I just don't see us finding an improvement this offseason at 1B unless someone very unexpected becomes available via trade. I also think McLouth and/or Reimold could be better than anyone we get to fill in at LF. I think 2B can surely improve, though true impact, long-term 2B are tough to find in this league.

That leaves me with SP. I think the biggest impact and perhaps the most likely big acquisition we could pull off would be for a TOR starter. Having a guy that is a TOR starter makes everyone else in that rotation look better and feel less pressured. Hammel, Chen slide down a spot and then whatever guys you have left over from making such an acquisition (figuring it is a trade and that it forces us to dump at least one/two of: Britton, Tillman, Arrieta) fill the back of the rotation. We also wouldn't have to worry about whether someone like Gonzalez can sustain his overachieving ways. Instead he can join those others that remain from making such a trade and fight to round out the rotation while not having as much pressure.

That would also allow us to stay on track with Bundy and not feel pressured to bring him up early and do whatever we think is actually best for the team with Matusz.

The more I think about it the more I get excited for a move for such a pitcher. I don't we will find what we need in the FA market and don't know who would be the best fit as a trade partner but I think we have a few tools with Britton, Tillman, Hoes, Avery, and the currently low value of Arietta and Matusz to make some sort of trade happen.

[jabba72]

Davis has proven me wrong too. But he waited until Late August to start doing it. Davis started taking pitches and drawing walks, which was a huge weakness. McLouth is more than adequete as the leadoff hitter and LF. In place of Reimold, who I dont see in the picture right now. What the lineup really needs is an every day 2B. Flaherty? Schoop?

[jabba72]

I was wrong too. He will always strike out a lot, but he can really hit and his power is off the charts.

I've got a hunch that some front offices have figured out that the HR has been undervalued in the saber era, but that's only a hunch at this point.

OPS rates power as equal with OBP. I would be interested in seeing if an .800 OPS with .525 sluggling scores more runs than with a .500 slugging.

[Malike]

Chris Davis is like Galactus. Instead of destroying planets, he destroys baseballs. I'm going to send him a Galactus hat to the O's clubhouse via post, and I hope like hell he'll wear it during a post-season interview, when he mashes a HR.

I just ordered one of these.

[wildcard]

I think we are just using slightly different definitions of "core;" I don't think we really disagree on Davis's potential future with the team, however one labels him. Davis has had enough success this year for me to want to see him play roughly the same amount next year. However, if Markakis and Reimold are both healthy, I suspect he will play a little less. My core guys are Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Hardy and Machado. Those guys will rarely sit out a game when they're healthy.

Your faith in Reimold is a lot higher than mine. He begins next year at 29. He is past his peak year in normal terms and that means for projection that he probably has already shown what type of player he is. He has 808 at bats in 4 years. I would project he would be limited to getting about 200 at bats next year due to injury or poor performance. He could get that playing against lefthand pitching in a platoon with McLouth in left with some at bats coming at DH and never impact Davis getting 500 at bats. So if Davis gets 500 at bats maybe that makes him core.

[sevastras]

Wait a minute. About a month ago people were talking about Davis as trade bait this off season and I said I would bet a case of Natty Boh that he hits 35+ next year and everyone ignored me. Now he hits 2 bombs tonight and they are inserting him into next years lineup(I dont know how to go back and look it up to show everyone, but I remember almost everything, so I am sure that I said this). What did I miss here? This guy can figure it out, I am sure, and be a great player. I wouldnt be suprised if he hits over 40 bombs in a season.

[wildcard]

Wait a minute. About a month ago people were talking about Davis as trade bait this off season and I said I would bet a case of Natty Boh that he hits 35+ next year and everyone ignored me. Now he hits 2 bombs tonight and they are inserting him into next years lineup(I dont know how to go back and look it up to show everyone, but I remember almost everything, so I am sure that I said this). What did I miss here? This guy can figure it out, I am sure, and be a great player. I wouldnt be suprised if he hits over 40 bombs in a season.

What you missed was several posters in this thread saying they were wrong. No need for you to look anything up.

[Malike]

Wait a minute. About a month ago people were talking about Davis as trade bait this off season and I said I would bet a case of Natty Boh that he hits 35+ next year and everyone ignored me. Now he hits 2 bombs tonight and they are inserting him into next years lineup(I dont know how to go back and look it up to show everyone, but I remember almost everything, so I am sure that I said this). What did I miss here? This guy can figure it out, I am sure, and be a great player. I wouldnt be suprised if he hits over 40 bombs in a season.

Maybe the people in this thread weren't the ones challenging that? I've never said anything like that.

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