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Showalter announces that Joe Saunders will start for #Orioles tomorrow


Greg

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FWIW, Saunders gave up 1 ER and 7 hits in 7.0 innings in his last start in Arlington in 2010. So it isn't like he's been terrible there every time.

Any Given Friday. That's how the saying goes, right?

good post - thanks. i really don't like this move at all. i think anyone would probably be better, and sometimes you play the odds, and pay attention to the numbers, like taking Chen out in the 7th inning BEFORE he melts down.

ah well. Buck manages a good deal by intuition, so that's the only reason i could see for this move. It makes no logical sense. I would say that experience is offset by the possibility of pitching a guy - Johnson - who Texas has never faced.

either way, it's been a great season.

i fully expect us to be down 4-0 by the third inning, however. (hope i am wrong!)

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So I got this crazy idea...not sure if it'd work but here it goes:

Texas has better splits against LHPs as seen here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=TEX&year=2012#plato

Saunders naturally fares much better against lefties: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=saundjo01&year=Career&t=p#plato His 2012 splits are even better against lefties. Johnson on the other hand is pretty even in his short career: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=johnsst02&year=&t=p#plato.

Now looking at the Rangers splits, they actually hit slightly better as lefties against LHP but better against RHP as LHB which is typical.

What if Buck were to announce his starter and put Saunders name in the lineup, so that ideally Texas would go with their typical lineup that might feature more right handed hitters. Buck brings Saunders in to face one guy to start the game but then takes out Saunders. He could just take him out, or have Joe fake like he's hurt.

Then Buck brings in Steve Johnson, a RHP to a more heavily RHB lineup. Not that Johnson's stats show much difference between lefties and righties against him, but you'd have to think it'd naturally be better for him to face more righties than otherwise. This way, the Rangers either have to stick with that lineup or start subbing guys early, effectively wasting hitters for later innings?

Would this work and how much different would a Rangers lineup look vs a LHP vs a RHP?

I actually like this idea and would love to see it, but I can't see it happening. Buck is actually pretty traditional.

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It makes no logical sense.

I think that goes way too far.

Johnson has knee issues, and has made a grand total of four major league starts during which his ERA was vastly lower than his peripherals indicate.

Tillman just started the game to try to pitch the team to the Eastern Division crown.

Gonzalez and Chen would be on short/very short rest when they clearly need more than that to be effective.

Arrieta and Matusz haven't started a major league game in months.

Hunter was a terrible starter, and a flyball pitcher who'd be going against a power-hitting team in their very friendly home park.

Hammel has been hurt and was just healthy enough to throw a simulated game Monday, so he'd be coming back from an injury on short rest.

Seems to me your only real options are Saunders, Hammel on short rest and not at 100%, Johnson making his fifth career start not at 100%, and bullpen day.

Saunders seems pretty reasonable in that context.

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Well, the team has gone against the odds and the stats all season, so why stop now? Texas hits left-handed starters (.282/.343/.455/.798) better than right handed starters (.269/.330/.442/.772) and we know Saunders has struggled against them. Maybe Buck just thinks it's too much to ask Steve Johnson to start this game. Either way, I hope he's on a very short leash and I expect to see Steve Johnson if Saunders struggles at all.

I wonder if Johnson will even be on the roster for this game.

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Listening to DFW sports radio, they are talking like the Rangers have been eliminated from the playoffs. I hope the team feels this defeated.

Just not sure about this decision by Buck. He's going this route b/c of Saunders' experience, but PLEASE Buck have a short leash.

Yeah, I don't have a problem with Saunders starting a playoff game, but I just don't like that he's starting this game, the one-game playoff, against the Rangers, in Arlington. I had just talked myself into liking our chances with Steve Johnson on the mound, but this I'm not so sure of. Like you, I do get the experience factor. And like you, I hope they have him on a short leash.

Of course, if Steve Johnson is still banged up and it's a concern, there wasn't much of a choice here.

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Buck doesn't have any great options for this game, but on the other hand, he can afford to pull his starter early if there's trouble. I'm kind of fatalistic here. If the Orioles are destined to win, they will find a way to do it. If the Rangers are destined to lose, they will find a way to do it, as they did for most of the last two weeks of the season. It's a one game playoff, and anything can happen. I'm going to watch, live and die with each pitch, and just be glad I'm getting that oppotunity when 20 teams' fans aren't, including fans of some pretty good teams like the Rays and Angels.

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If Saunders gets creamed and they lose, the starter management for these past few games (and days in the case of Hammel) will haunt me and leave me always wondering what this team could have done if it were put in the best position to succeed. This isn't it.

I'm not saying the O's are definitely going to lose. I'm just saying that they are in a worse position to succeed than they otherwise could have been.

That said, if they win on Friday, I really like the pitching lineup for the ALDS.

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If Saunders gets creamed and they lose, the starter management for these past few games (and days in the case of Hammel) will haunt me and leave me always wondering what this team could have done if it were put in the best position to succeed. This isn't it.

I'm not saying the O's are definitely going to lose. I'm just saying that they are in a worse position to succeed than they otherwise could have been.

That said, if they win on Friday, I really like the pitching lineup for the ALDS.

What does this even mean? Hammel rushed himself back and had to throw a simulated game before starting a real game. Buck didn't cause Johnson's injury. And we had to use Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman in the Rays series because we needed those games (for the division or home field advantage). We had no choice.

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What does this even mean? Hammel rushed himself back and had to throw a simulated game before starting a real game. Buck didn't cause Johnson's injury. And we had to use Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman in the Rays series because we needed those games (for the division or home field advantage). We had no choice.

Except of course, ultimately, they didn't need any of the games in Tampa.

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