Will you be disappointed if the 2013 roster is virtually the same as the 2012 roster?

[Spy Fox]

This is pretty bold...Our offense struggled to score runs in the 1st half and again in the playoffs. Tampa Bay could beat us out next season and you cant forget about the Blue Jays who were decimated with injuries. Standing pat would be stupid.

Yep. It would be VERY foolish to count on winning 16 straight extra-inning games and repeating an MLB record in close games...

JohnnyK27, I certainly don't count anyone out. I could see any of the five AL East members contending for a wild card spot next year, yes even the Red Sox and Blue Jays who had bad seasons.

And to your point markdublya, I don't think anyone is anticipating that level of prodigious success in close contests. But we don't need to perform at historic levels to be good. We can't view our late and close performance in a vacuum, and in fact it shouldn't even be considered much when predicting next year, since our odd success in those one run games in 2012 has no effect on our results in those games in 2013. Every team and every season is different-- yes we will probably see a decrease in bullpen performance next season, but we'll probably also see an improvement in starting pitching and defense.

I don't expect to win 93 games again next year. But when I compare our roster to the rest of the AL East, I see an average offense with the potential to improve, a bullpen that figures to be good again (though not best WPA-ever good as they were this year), a defense that is solidly above average, and a starting rotation that lacks a CC/Price type ace but has a depth of options that can't be matched except by TB. That equals contention unless we have an absurd series of bad in-game breaks next year that directly opposes our opposite fortune this year in the one-run games.

[wildcard]

I really don't understand what all the pessimism is about. This is young team that DD and Buck have consistently improved over the last year. There is not reason to believe that they will not get better. Repeat the close games and extra innings? Heck no. Win by 2 or 3 runs instead.

Markakis - should be healthier

McLouth - I hope he re-signs

Jones - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Davis - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Wieters - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Hardy - had a down year and should improve his OPS 75 point

Reynolds - had a down year and should hit at least 30 homer and increase his RBI due to better health

Machado - A lot of talent and should increase at least 10% across the board

Flaherty - Young, should continue the production he showed in the 2nd half'

I would not be a bit surprised if this team scores 5 runs a game on average next year.

Tillman - 24, should progress

Gonzo - I am looking forward to a full year

Hammel - Being healthly would be a big plus

Chen - Should be in his prime

There is no reason the pen should not be better next year with the addition of Matusz and Hunter and with Gregg no longer with the O's

This group of pitchers should be among the top 5 in the league.

So what is all the talk of regression? Why would you even think that way?

[Can_of_corn]

I really don't understand what all the pessimism is about. This is young team that DD and Buck have consistently improved over the last year. There is not reason to believe that they will not get better. Repeat the close games and extra innings? Heck no. Win by 2 or 3 runs instead.

Markakis - should be healthier

McLouth - I hope he re-signs

Jones - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Davis - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Wieters - Is only 26 and still should be progressing

Hardy - had a down year and should improve his OPS 75 point

Reynolds - had a down year and should hit at least 30 homer and increase his RBI due to better health

Machado - A lot of talent and should increase at least 10% across the board

Flaherty - Young, should continue the production he showed in the 2nd half'

I would not be a bit surprised if this team scores 5 runs a game on average next year.

Tillman - 24, should progress

Gonzo - I am looking forward to a full year

Hammel - Being healthly would be a big plus

Chen - Should be in his prime

There is no reason the pen should not be better next year with the addition of Matusz and Hunter and with Gregg no longer with the O's

This group of pitchers should be among the top 5 in the league.

So what is all the talk of regression? Why would you even think that way?

You think every offensive player under contract will improve next year?

Yes 27 is considered the "Peak year" for ballplayers but, the age-26 to age-27 jump is the smallest of all age-to-age improvements.

There is a good chance that at least one of the 26 year olds regresses. I see no reason to think that Hardy's 2011 season is more indicative of who he is going forward then his 2012 season, middle infielders tend not to age well.

I think there is a huge risk that someone like Gonzo, who performed at a much higher skill level then ever before, regresses. A lot of NPB pitchers run into difficulty in years two or three.

The Bullpen is almost guaranteed to regress to a high degree with JJ being the one most likely.

[wildcard]

You think every offensive player under contract will improve next year?

Yes 27 is considered the "Peak year" for ballplayers but, the age-26 to age-27 jump is the smallest of all age-to-age improvements.

There is a good chance that at least one of the 26 year olds regresses. I see no reason to think that Hardy's 2011 season is more indicative of who he is going forward then his 2012 season, middle infielders tend not to age well.

I think there is a huge risk that someone like Gonzo, who performed at a much higher skill level then ever before, regresses. A lot of NPB pitchers run into difficulty in years two or three.

The Bullpen is almost guaranteed to regress to a high degree with JJ being the one most likely.

Nice chart. What is Lwts?

[ChaosLex]

A little.

The O's played above their heads somewhat this season, IMO. We really need to concentrate on a MOO bat, some high OBP guys, and adding SP/RP depth this offseason.

[Brooks The Great]

I would not be disappointed at all. We won 93 games with Arrieta, Matusz, and Hunter doing their best starting pitcher impression of Daniel Cabrera (ok, maybe not that bad). I think we will add a few minor pieces to compliment what we have right now, but nothing major. I really doubt we make any trades either.

I am excited to see what a rotation of Hammel, Chen, Gonzo, and Tillman can do for a whole year. You obviously still need a #5, but I think that will be determined in spring training between whoever DD brings in (or we could re-sign Saunders).

I am excited to see what they can do as well, but unfortunately I think there's a great chance all four of those guys miss time next year with injuries. Hammel basically missed half of this season, Chen has missed lots of time with injuries in the past, Gonzalez missed two whole seasons recently, and Tillman was really close to blowing out his elbow this season. I also think re-signing Saunders will be a mistake. He was great for the Orioles, but in addition to pitching well, I think he was fortunate to face some weak offenses down the stretch - a banged up Blue Jays team twice, a Red Sox team that had flown the white flag for months, Seattle at their place where they were one of the worst hitting home teams in baseball (if not the worst, too lazy to look it up), and then a collapsing Rangers team in the wild card game and a Yankee team that can't score a run to save their lives in the ALDS.

Saunders stuff won't play well in the AL East next season. I would rather look at other options, both within and outside the organization.

[Can_of_corn]

Nice chart. What is Lwts?

It was lifted from BP.

The answer to your question was also lifted, this time from Yahoo.

LWTS (or LW)

Linear Weights -- a system of measuring baseball production by assigning a coefficient (or weight) to each event and adding up the sums (a linear combination). The basic LWTS formula is:

Runs = (.47)1B + (.78)2B + (1.09)3B + (1.40)HR + (.33)(BB + HB) - (.25)(AB-H) - (.50)OOB

[Frobby]

"This roster" wins 82-85 games with a "normal" record in 1 run games, unless you think we are going to break 100 year records 2 years in a row.

So if this roster is brought back with almost no changes, I won't only be disappointed I will be furious.

First of all, based on what Duquette has said, you should prepare to be furious.

Second, I think you have to look at the changes made during the course of the 2012 season. After the all-star break, the Orioles had a pythagorean record of a 91-win team. That's with Tillman and Gonzalez in the rotation, McLouth and Machado in the lineup (for most, not even all, of the second half), etc. And, without Hammel for most of that time, without Markakis for a month, etc.

[wildcard]

You think every offensive player under contract will improve next year?

I doubt Roberts is productive in his comeback. He probably gets a 6 week trial but he has been out a long time to reach the level he needs to hit to hold down the 2B job.

I think McLouth plays well until he is hurt. I think he is on the DL for half the season.

I expect Markakis, Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds, Teagarden, and Reimold all have periods on the DL.

[Can_of_corn]

I doubt Roberts is productive in his comeback. He probably gets a 6 week trial but he has been out a long time to reach the level he needs to hit to hold down the 2B job.

I think McLouth plays well until he is hurt. I think he is on the DL for half the season.

I expect Markakis, Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds, Teagarden, and Reimold all have periods on the DL.

Sorry, I forgot Roberts was under contract. Of course if he doesn't play at all then that is substantially better then how he played in '12.

I think, DL predictions aside, that you are overly optimistic in your projections.

[brianod]

No, I agree with those that said we were a different team over the last two months and you can't judge our performance based on the first four months run differential. If we stand pat, we should stockpile prospects. We may be good enough at the major league level to stand pat but, not in the minors

[Can_of_corn]

No, I agree with those that said we were a different team over the last two months and you can't judge our performance based on the first four months run differential. If we stand pat, we should stockpile prospects. We may be good enough at the major league level to stand pat but, not in the minors

The team was good enough over the last two months of 2010 that, if you were to just judge them solely by those two months, they should have been contenders in 2011.

How did that work out?

Two months is an insufficiently long sample size.

[markdublya]

Who said we're counting on that? The team that was on the field post Machado was a very good ballclub. Had we finished the year with Betemit playing 3B and Lew Ford as our everyday LF'er I might have agreed with you, but as-is, I think this team will compete. Would I like to have James Shields anchoring the staff? Sure. Would I rather have Miguel Cabrera at 1b? Absolutely. But I don't look at this team as-is and point to any one glaring hole that can't be filled adequately from within.

If you don't think the team needs improvement, then to some extent you ARE counting on that. As another person posted, Good teams win 93 games and immed try to figure out what gets them to 100. It's NOT bringing back the exact same team, it's improving. It's assuming that the Red Sox and Yankees will improve, it's assuming the Jays will be healthier and therefore better, it's knowing Tampa's pitching can shut down any lineup on any given night. Never stand pat. This is an INCREDIBLY likable group of players and I don't want to see the chemistry disrupted, but a lot of little things went right this season. A TOR SP and a 2B are obvious moves that can make the team better.

[Frobby]

The team was good enough over the last two months of 2010 that, if you were to just judge them solely by those two months, they should have been contenders in 2011.

How did that work out?

Two months is an insufficiently long sample size.

This is a somewhat fair point, though I think the two situations are somewhat different for a couple of reasons. First, the turnaround in 2010 was so dramatic as to be ridicuous. The turn around this year was a team with a winning record becoming a .670 team down the stretch -- still very noticeable, but not the same as a .305 team suddenly becoming a .596 team. Second, there weren't any player personnel changes that drove the sudden improvement in 2010, whereas in 2012 the personnel changes were a strong driver of the team's improvement.

I think the truth probably somewhere in between the team's pythagorean record for the entire season and it's pythagorean record for the second half of 2012. This team is better than a team that will just scrape over .500, but may not be a contender again in 2013 unless further upgrades are made. It is just a question of how dramatic those upgrades need to be.

[Frobby]

Hee hee, Machado is too young to even be on this chart.

To me, he's the possible game changer for this franchise. If he puts up an .800+ OPS season in 2013, the offense could be really, really good.