Will you be disappointed if the 2013 roster is virtually the same as the 2012 roster?

[wildcard]

September stats? Are you going to base off season decisions on one month of data?

The O's were a developing team all season long. From the promotion of Tillman and Gonzo in mid season to the additions of Machado and McLouth late in the season. In a case like this, season long stats don't tell the whole story. The team the O's started with is not the team the O's finished with.

So the September stats may not tell the whole story but they are probably more meaningful then the O's stats for the whole season. Look at the fielding stats for the whole years and the O's look like one of the worst fielding team in baseball. However by the end of the year they were one of the best.

[DrungoHazewood]

You are ignoring where they are ready are. Look at the Sept offensive stats, add Markakis and Reimold. Replace Andino with a righthanded hitting 2b. That is a deep team the can hit very well. Maybe lead the league in hitting.

I'd prefer to not plan using the assumption that a cherry picked one-month samples represents everyone's true talent going forward. It would certainly be an upset if a team that finished 9th in the league in scoring, nearly 100 runs off the top team, didn't add any major pieces and then led the league in runs.

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's were a developing team all season long. From the promotion of Tillman and Gonzo in mid season to the additions of Machado and McLouth late in the season. In a case like this, season long stats don't tell the whole story. The team the O's started with is not the team the O's finished with.

So the September stats may not tell the whole story but they are probably more meaningful then the O's stats for the whole season. Look at the fielding stats for the whole years and the O's look like one of the worst fielding team in baseball. However by the end of the year they were one of the best.

You said basically the same thing after Buck managed the team to a .600 mark at the end of 2010. The 2013 Orioles may project to somewhat better than their overall 2012 averages, but you simply cannot count on them playing at their absolute peaks for six months. For example, the same Chris Davis who OPS'd 1.000 in September was waiving at 55-foot curves all October, leading to a sub-500 playoff OPS.

[TradeAngelos]

I want some of whatever wildcard is having.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I want some of whatever wildcard is having.

Yeah, I thought Buck said he was going to keep the kool aid under lock and key.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Everyone arguing for changing it up a bit and claiming regression, who do you replace, meaning who are you predicting regression for. Is it a mistake to pencil Gonzalez into the starting rotation, Tillman? Should we replace Chris Davis in the lineup? I see lots of predicitons for regression which is great but it's very vague and general. If you replace the wrong guys, you've screwed up?

Regression, cost, value, opportunity all come into play. I've previously identified 5-6 guys as potential trade chips in order to improve the team. As in any business you can make the wrong decisions and lose. That's the risk of being in business.

[Ohfan67]

Everyone arguing for changing it up a bit and claiming regression, who do you replace, meaning who are you predicting regression for. Is it a mistake to pencil Gonzalez into the starting rotation, Tillman? Should we replace Chris Davis in the lineup? I see lots of predicitons for regression which is great but it's very vague and general. If you replace the wrong guys, you've screwed up?

I actually think Chris Davis will be the first baseman next year. In one of the late season articles on Davis' good play as a RF Buck said something like, "and we still think he can develop into a heck of a first basemen". I don't think the O's have anybody that can be counted on at 2B or LF. So I think they should look for significant upgrades at DH, 2B, and LF. Anything they get from Flaherty and Reimold is bonus, but no way can you count on those two and I'm not even bringing Roberts into the equation). I think DD will be (and should be) focused on those three positions.

[wildcard]

I want some of whatever wildcard is having.

I guess I have to admit I was wrong. I thought after a turnaround like this year the guys of the OH would be more positive. But alas, it is not to be.

[Greg]

Yes 2m people went to the game and Masn rating so high. Better add payroll.

[duffaphonic]

All of the Os have the potential to be better, Let's look at the yanks. Will Jeter, Granderson and Cano be better next year? No. Will Swisher and ARod even be on their team? Will the starters be better? I doubt it.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Everyone arguing for changing it up a bit and claiming regression, who do you replace, meaning who are you predicting regression for. Is it a mistake to pencil Gonzalez into the starting rotation, Tillman? Should we replace Chris Davis in the lineup? I see lots of predicitons for regression which is great but it's very vague and general. If you replace the wrong guys, you've screwed up?

Well said. This is a lot of what I was trying to get at. These are the guys I can think of...

Flaherty - Who really knows what he's capable of over a full season. Personally, I'd like to see what we have in him. He did occupy a roster spot all year long. There aren't too many FA 2b's I'm confident can outperform him, and likewise, I don't think there is much available via trade. We also have Schoop in the fold if Flaherty fails.

Saunders - We all love what he did over the last month, but let's be honest, we can't expect that type production over a full year. Maybe we can replace him with a Shaun Marcum type, not an ace, but that's probably a marginal upgrade.

McLouth - Was awesome, but if there's one spot you might be able to find a MOO bat, it's corner OF. Maybe this is where an Upton fits in, but are you willing to give up the pieces to get him? I personally don't want Hamilton, but there's an argument for him as well. All that said, are we giving up on Reimold? I don't think you can platoon Davis and Reimold at DH. Something has to give there.

Reynolds - It's been discussed a lot on this board that he is likely our best option given the choices. The defense is elite and you hope the power comes back in 2013.

Davis - There are better DH's, but he made such great strides this year, and is still under control for some time, do we really want to trade him?

[El Gordo]

A lot depend on whether Reynolds can be signed to a reasonable contract. If he can then he's is our 1B for the next 2 years + and Davis is the primary DH. If not then it's Davis at 1B, with Betemit LH DH and Reimold RH DH. Most likely they sign McLouth to a one year contract for LF. If not, then they look for FA options or a trade. They probably sign Saunders as a number 5 SP, because Buck will want at least 2 LH SP. If not, then they look to Britton for that spot. They have Hammel for another year. After that Bundy could replace him. They have Hardy for 2 more years. After that Manny moves to SS and maybe Flaherty goes to 3B. If not they look to FA or trade for a 3B

[Orsino]

Nope. If our opening day roster next year is

1. Nate McLouth LF

2. Nick Markakis RF

3. Adam Jones CF

4. Chris Davis DH

5. JJ Hardy SS

6. Matt Wieters C

7. Mark Reynolds 1B

8. Manny Machado 3B

9. Ryan Flaherty 2B

Taylor Teagarden

Robert Andino

Wilson Betemit

4th OF

Jason Hammel

Wei Yin Chen

Miguel Gonzalez

Chris Tillman

Joe Saunders

Jim Johnson

Pedro Strop

Darren O'Day

Luis Ayala

Tommy Hunter

Troy Patton

Brian Matusz

I'd be tickled pink to start the season.

This, but do we really need a fourth outfielder? Davis can provide that. I'd like to see a big bat in there that we currently don't have as DH.

[Camden_yardbird]

I expect about a 5 player turnover on the 25 man roster and and a 7 player turnover on the 40.

[isestrex]

This, but do we really need a fourth outfielder? Davis can provide that. I'd like to see a big bat in there that we currently don't have as DH.

The 4th outfielder spot will be Reimold... until he's hurt again.