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Orioles must be aggresive this offseason


tim299

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People are piling on the guy just because he thinks we should be more aggressive in the offseason. A lot of us used to suggest that between 2006-2011 and many of us used to get slammed for suggesting we spend money on expensive free agents. You and I both know that is the case.

The OH has calmed down considerably over the last year as some of the more anti-AM and pro-spending people have been run off, banned or gotten fed up with the rudeness.

In any case, he should feel free to say what he wants without having the don't-spend crowd be rude.

MSK

Who is saying not to spend? All I'm really seeing here is people saying that nearly doubling the payroll isn't likely.
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People are piling on the guy just because he thinks we should be more aggressive in the offseason.

Well, aggressive in the area of big-ticket free agent acquisitions. After watching DD for a year, I would suggest that he is aggressive 24/7 in player acquisition mode, and might even ramp it up some this offseason now that he's got a better handle on the organization.

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I love crazy offseason speculation! Well, as long as it's at least somewhat realistic. My turn!

Even with our projected payroll in the 90-95 million dollar range, a reasonable increase in spending should be possible given our successes this year and the revenue it has already generated and will generate in 2013 - say, 10-12 percent or 9-11 million. And if we let Reynolds walk, as I believe we should, that number could go as high as 20 million.

So what do we do with all that cash? The answer is that old dirty word, stopgaps! In the old days(pre-2012 lol), we hated those types of moves because the core of the team was so bad that if the guy coming in wasn't a superstar caliber player, it really made no difference. But we actually have a solid foundation from which to build now and we should be careful not to over-extend ourselves on big contracts that feel good right now, but will ultimately hold us back.

The guys that will get the big money, longterm deals this offseason(Hamilton, Bourn, Greinke, etc.) are out of our price range and probably not worth the money they'll receive so we should look to add solid veteran players that won't be getting any long-term offers, either due to injuries or because they're coming off down years- guys like Shane Victorino, Brandon McCarthy, and Maicer Izturis. We could probably sign all three to one or two year deals for what about one year of Hamilton will cost(probably less actually) and it would address pretty much all of our major needs- SP, 2B, LF, OBP, speed, and lead-off hitter.

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Ok, but aren't the Red Sox the perfect example as to why you don't go out and purchase 3-4 high priced FA's in one offseason? Did you see what the Marlins did last offseason? Did you like what the Dodgers did at the deadline?

I think people are mistaking the general disregard of your proposal as an overall disdain to high dollar free agents. I don't think that's the case at all. There are absolutely players that come around that are worth investing in. See the Cardinals and Matt Holliday. There simply aren't any Matt Hollidays in this FA class. Elite players you can feel comfortable are going to at least reasonably produce to the value of their contracts. That's why I expect that the pieces we acquire will be much more supplemental types, and I'm okay with that.

I remeber when Holliday was available .... The over whelming majority here said he would be worth his contract and werent interested.

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Eh, nothing wrong with dreaming big.

I was wracking my brain last night, trying to figure out a way for the O's to trade for Billy Butler, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton this offseason. And yes, I know it's not going to happen. :P

/The king of wishful thinking...

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I was wracking my brain last night, trying to figure out a way for the O's to trade for Billy Butler, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton this offseason. And yes, I know it's not going to happen. :P

I know you're speaking hypothetically, but I wouldn't claim Kinsler if he was put on waivers tomorrow, much less trade anything for him.His OPS dropped significantly this year, and since he's on the wrong side of 30, that could signal the start of a decline. He has 5/75 left on his contract, with a 5 million dollar buyout of the sixth year. Even if the Rangers ate a ton of that deal in a trade, it isn't in our best interests.

Upton's a very good player, but Markakis is our RF, and I don't see that changing for the duration of his contract. Unless you're suggesting putting him in LF.

I'm completely on the Billy Butler bandwagon though. I think he is just what this team needs right now.

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I really thought i wanted Bourn as well. But his SO's are not a good thing to see from a lead off hitter IMO. I wouldn't trust him to hit 9 hrs again, after having 2 years in a row of hitting 1. His SB are nice to see but were not a running team. We were dead last in SB. He stole almost as much as our entire team did all year. I would want to avoid Hamilton. Off the field concerns aside he is a major health risk for a guy you are probably going to be paying 15-20 million dollars a year. I wouldn't mind getting Swisher. The guy gets on base better then anyone on our current roster outside Markakis. I'd take him over Reynolds. We can't rely on the long ball to win all our games. We need guys who will get on base instead of trying to win it all on one swing. I think we also need to address our bench. i think that was a big weakness for us in the post season.

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Eh, nothing wrong with dreaming big.

I was wracking my brain last night, trying to figure out a way for the O's to trade for Billy Butler, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton this offseason. And yes, I know it's not going to happen. :P

/The king of wishful thinking...

i wanted Butler LAST off season. :/ That would of been the perfect time when the Royals had high expectations coming into the year with Hosmer. Now its going to cost a team alot to get Butler. The man can hit an is entering his prime.

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People are piling on the guy just because he thinks we should be more aggressive in the offseason. A lot of us used to suggest that between 2006-2011 and many of us used to get slammed for suggesting we spend money on expensive free agents. You and I both know that is the case.

The OH has calmed down considerably over the last year as some of the more anti-AM and pro-spending people have been run off, banned or gotten fed up with the rudeness.

In any case, he should feel free to say what he wants without having the don't-spend crowd be rude.

MSK

You still don't seem to have gotten the idea that it's beyond useless and terribly counter-productive for a low-mid market team with 70-win talent to go out and sign a bunch of high priced 30-something-year-old free agents. First, you'll have to Werth them to get them to sign in the first place, which means you're going to take it in the shorts. And what you end up with is a 80-win team of declining free agents and Howard/Werth/Wells/Soriano type contracts serving as millstones dragging the team to the bottom. The Nats tried this and won despite the strategy, not because of it. Don't you think they'd love to have used Werth's salary/roster spot with actual good player(s)? The Cubs brought in Theo exactly to undo the damage from that type of strategy.

Now... it's a whole different ballgame for a 93-win team (even a 80-85 win team on true talent) to spend some money filling a handful of holes. That makes all the sense in the world, since they're very close to the sweep spot where 5-10 wins could be the difference that pushes you over the threshold of $10s of millions in playoff revenues.

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As I said last week...

It's like people want to stick their fingers in their ears and yell LALALALALALAICANTHEARYOULALALALALA when DD goes on a radio show and publicly states that he's not interested in signing high priced FA's and continue to live in a fantasy land where we sign Greinke, Hamilton and tack on more salary through trades.

Not. Gonna. Happen. Forget it.

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I love crazy offseason speculation! Well, as long as it's at least somewhat realistic. My turn!

Even with our projected payroll in the 90-95 million dollar range, a reasonable increase in spending should be possible given our successes this year and the revenue it has already generated and will generate in 2013 - say, 10-12 percent or 9-11 million. And if we let Reynolds walk, as I believe we should, that number could go as high as 20 million.

So what do we do with all that cash? The answer is that old dirty word, stopgaps! In the old days(pre-2012 lol), we hated those types of moves because the core of the team was so bad that if the guy coming in wasn't a superstar caliber player, it really made no difference. But we actually have a solid foundation from which to build now and we should be careful not to over-extend ourselves on big contracts that feel good right now, but will ultimately hold us back.

The guys that will get the big money, longterm deals this offseason(Hamilton, Bourn, Greinke, etc.) are out of our price range and probably not worth the money they'll receive so we should look to add solid veteran players that won't be getting any long-term offers, either due to injuries or because they're coming off down years- guys like Shane Victorino, Brandon McCarthy, and Maicer Izturis. We could probably sign all three to one or two year deals for what about one year of Hamilton will cost(probably less actually) and it would address pretty much all of our major needs- SP, 2B, LF, OBP, speed, and lead-off hitter.

I like your "stopgap" rather than "superstar" approach for this team. While 2012 was just amazing, it came off 14 bad years due mainly to a terrible farm system. DD seemed to push all the right buttons in player acquisition this past year but rebuilding the Os' farm system IMO is by far his greatest challenge....it's got to be like the 60s/70s again where it seemed every year the Os "grew" 1-2 solid major leaguers (one example - 2b - Davey Johnson - Bobby Grich - Rich Dauer). If resources go anywhere, let it go to the farm system/scouting, etc. That's the real key to sustaining long-term success...

So assuming it's McLouth/Reimold in left and Reynolds (who I do want back) at 1st, then a solid veteran type SP (Saunders or similar) and a high BA average 2B (I like Sanchez if the Giants keep Scutaro) at reasonable 1-2 year deals seem logical.

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I have not heard that our payroll will be significantly increased from last season. Have any of you?

DD said in his interview on The Fan that he had done the planning and could get most of the 14 arbitration players on the team for 2013. That is about 94M which is a 13M increase over the start of 2012. That is a significant increase in salary.

In that same interview he says he will not be signing any expensive FA this off season. He says he will search the world to add addition players to fill in pieces that improve the team. Sounds like adding depth to me.

In another interview on The Fan DD praises Saunders and talks about how much he added to the team with his playoff experience and his performance. He doesn't say he will re-sign him but he leads me to believe he might. That would probably make the team have a 100M payroll if they sign Saunders.

Roch covers some of the same ground in his Blog today: http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/

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This has been a great post and I love to debate points. As far as players like Mark Reynolds, I feel he is not worth the paper the dollar bill is printed on. This guy strikes out way to much and his unproductive periods far outweigh his productive ones. In fact, this is what killed the Orioles in the playoffs; guys like Reynolds, Davis, and Jones who do great when they are hot, but kill a team when ice cold and swinging at every pitch. Bourne takes walks (70), Hamilton takes walks (60), where Jones (34), and Davis (37) can't help them selves but to swing away. Also, with The Orioles lack of getting on base, it is killing players like Jones and Davis also who both hit 30 homes and failed to hit 90 + RBI. That is just no good. One of those guys should have been well over 100 RBI. And Mark Reynolds, who does take walks, is just too inconsistent. And as far as pitching, this team had better get someone who can eat up innings and anchor the starting staff until Bundy and Gausman develop and show they can pitch at a major league level. Saunders is okay, but I would rather he come out of the bullpen where I believe it works to his strength. In any case, what happens happens, and I do expect The Orioles to pick up some crusty veterans and claim they are the ones that will help lead the team to the next level, while The Yankees or Red Sox spend the money to get those important bats/arms that ultimately improve the team where needed. And, we know if this team is really going to compete with those guys, they WILL need to spend the money needed. Also, we can sit here and talk about how Oakland makes the playoffs with a small budget, but we can also sit here and talk about what a garbage hole their division is. As for Tampa Bay, who competes, they are like The Orioles, they will not spend the money needed to improve the team where needed and ultimately fail.

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