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Orioles must be aggresive this offseason


tim299

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This has been a great post and I love to debate points. As far as players like Mark Reynolds, I feel he is not worth the paper the dollar bill is printed on. This guy strikes out way to much and his unproductive periods far outweigh his productive ones. In fact, this is what killed the Orioles in the playoffs; guys like Reynolds, Davis, and Jones who do great when they are hot, but kill a team when ice cold and swinging at every pitch. Bourne takes walks (70), Hamilton takes walks (60), where Jones (34), and Davis (37) can't help them selves but to swing away. Also, with The Orioles lack of getting on base, it is killing players like Jones and Davis also who both hit 30 homes and failed to hit 90 + RBI. That is just no good. One of those guys should have been well over 100 RBI. And Mark Reynolds, who does take walks, is just too inconsistent. And as far as pitching, this team had better get someone who can eat up innings and anchor the starting staff until Bundy and Gausman develop and show they can pitch at a major league level. Saunders is okay, but I would rather he come out of the bullpen where I believe it works to his strength. In any case, what happens happens, and I do expect The Orioles to pick up some crusty veterans and claim they are the ones that will help lead the team to the next level, while The Yankees or Red Sox spend the money to get those important bats/arms that ultimately improve the team where needed. And, we know if this team is really going to compete with those guys, they WILL need to spend the money needed. Also, we can sit here and talk about how Oakland makes the playoffs with a small budget, but we can also sit here and talk about what a garbage hole their division is. As for Tampa Bay, who competes, they are like The Orioles, they will not spend the money needed to improve the team where needed and ultimately fail.

Really?!?! Oakland plays in the same division as the Rangers and Angels if you didn't notice. The #4 and #7 payrolls in all of baseball last year. One could argue that division was equally as good, if not better than, the AL East in 2012.

And keep dismissing Tampa as an unsustainable model. They've only won 90 or more games 4 of the last 5 years. Sure, they'd be better if they had $100m to spend, but it wouldn't be because they would be signing high dollar FA's. It would be because they were able to hold onto more of their own.

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Yeah. And a lot said the O's just dodged a bullet, when he chose St. Louis.

So let's say every few years of the past 14 years the O's went out and signed a big free agent hitter entering his 30s, like Holliday. But didn't change anything else. They would have gone from a 68-win team to a 72 win team. Revenues don't go up, expenses do. Fewer profits, fewer resources. No more playoff births than the zero they already had (prior to this year, of course).

They key has always been a self-sustaining talent base. Without that you can't regularly win with the roughly $80M payroll the O's have long been capped at.

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Really?!?! Oakland plays in the same division as the Rangers and Angels if you didn't notice. The #4 and #7 payrolls in all of baseball last year. One could argue that division was equally as good, if not better than, the AL East in 2012.

And keep dismissing Tampa as an unsustainable model. They've only won 90 or more games 4 of the last 5 years. Sure, they'd be better if they had $100m to spend, but it wouldn't be because they would be signing high dollar FA's. It would be because they were able to hold onto more of their own.

TB inability to spend will catch up with them. It did to an extent in 2012. They produce pit hing, but arent producing the hitters. Upton is probably gone. Zobrist will become too expensive, and while Jennings and Joyce are nice players, niether have become what scouts thought. Shields will be gone by 2014, if not sooner. And no way will they be able to give Price the 150 mil he will want. Im gonna say that by 2014, the Rays will be a 80ish win team at best.

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So let's say every few years of the past 14 years the O's went out and signed a big free agent hitter entering his 30s, like Holliday. But didn't change anything else. They would have gone from a 68-win team to a 72 win team. Revenues don't go up, expenses do. Fewer profits, fewer resources. No more playoff births than the zero they already had (prior to this year, of course).

They key has always been a self-sustaining talent base. Without that you can't regularly win with the roughly $80M payroll the O's have long been capped at.

Im not disagreeing with you on that. But, the excuse was is that we're not one player away. Well, were coming off a 93 win seasin, that saw the O's win 3 playoff games. A Josh Hamilton may have made a difference. Now the excuse is, Hamilfon is too old (at 31) and the O's cant afford the risk. If you cant afford to take a risk coming off a 93 win season, that saw us in the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, then when can they? Self sustained talent is great,

but their comes a time you have to take advantage of the young core, and supplement it with proven talent as well.

You dont have to agree with that logic, but thats my own personal opinion.

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TB inability to spend will catch up with them. It did to an extent in 2012. They produce pit hing, but arent producing the hitters. Upton is probably gone. Zobrist will become too expensive, and while Jennings and Joyce are nice players, niether have become what scouts thought. Shields will be gone by 2014, if not sooner. And no way will they be able to give Price the 150 mil he will want. Im gonna say that by 2014, the Rays will be a 80ish win team at best.

And that's exactly what everyone has said would happen to them each year since 2008. Hasn't happened yet.

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TB inability to spend will catch up with them. It did to an extent in 2012. They produce pit hing, but arent producing the hitters. Upton is probably gone. Zobrist will become too expensive, and while Jennings and Joyce are nice players, niether have become what scouts thought. Shields will be gone by 2014, if not sooner. And no way will they be able to give Price the 150 mil he will want. Im gonna say that by 2014, the Rays will be a 80ish win team at best.

Yeah, I'm not gonna disagree with that... BUT, Tampa is also the extreme case. They're competing with a payroll around $64m and that number might even decrease this year. Our payroll is set to be at least $30m more than that, and yet some people are saying we're not spending enough to compete. Truth is, Tampa would dominate with our payroll. Our payroll will be somewhere around 13th highest in baseball next year and it's only going to get higher if you want to start extending Wieters, or Tillman, Jim Johnson, Machado, Bundy, etc. I'd much rather an increased payroll be going to those guys for their first years of FA than a bunch of guys in there mid 30's coming off career years.

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And that's exactly what everyone has said would happen to them each year since 2008. Hasn't happened yet.
TB wins because they are a smart organization, no doubt. However, their success was built by the draft. Their success also means they aren't going to draft as high as they used to do. No more David Prices or Evan Longorias waiting for them. When their guys get too expensive to keep, they leave. Luckily for them, guys like Carl Crawford stumbled after they left.
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What's wrong with doing it the old-fashioned way? A team like SF is in the WS because (for the most part) they developed their own core and added pieces along the way. They have a large payrol, but that's mostly because they pay their players to stay. Sure they have the benefit of playing in a weak division, but they also knocked off the mighty Reds and tough Cardinals along the way. All while playing in a pitchers ballpark and being at the bottom of the league in HR's.

Smart organizations build their teams the right way...not the Yankee way

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O's need to continue pumping money into player development and scouting (both domestically and internationally). If you do a good job in those areas then you will have a consistently solid foundation to build upon. Add a FA here and there, sprinkle in a beneficial trade or two when available and you stand a pretty good chance of long-term sustainabilty as a winning franchise. I like what DD is doing so far and I'll give past credit where it's due. AP got the ball rolling by convincing PA to direct more of the team's resources into scouting and player development.

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TB wins because they are a smart organization, no doubt. However, their success was built by the draft. Their success also means they aren't going to draft as high as they used to do. No more David Prices or Evan Longorias waiting for them. When their guys get too expensive to keep, they leave. Luckily for them, guys like Carl Crawford stumbled after they left.

Being the VERY WORST team for several years certainly makes for Washington and Tampa to occur.

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And that's exactly what everyone has said would happen to them each year since 2008. Hasn't happened yet.

Thats mainly because the main clogs were under team control still (Longoria, Upton, Shields, Price, Garza, ). Now that those guys are becoming expensive, they will start to lose them. Garza and Bartlett were already casualties. Upton and soon to be Shields will be next. Price not long after that. They have done a great job, but sooner or later you wont hit on every prospect.

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What's wrong with doing it the old-fashioned way? A team like SF is in the WS because (for the most part) they developed their own core and added pieces along the way. They have a large payrol, but that's mostly because they pay their players to stay. Sure they have the benefit of playing in a weak division, but they also knocked off the mighty Reds and tough Cardinals along the way. All while playing in a pitchers ballpark and being at the bottom of the league in HR's.

Smart organizations build their teams the right way...not the Yankee way

Yep. The long-term success of the O's does not come down to signing 4 players to fill holes on the major league roster. It comes down to the development of Machado, Bundy, Gausman, etc.

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If James Shields is available that should be our top target. I'd then say Dan Haren and to a lesser extent Edwin Jackson. Brandon Phillips would be a nice addition too with Schoop likely not ready. Pitcher and a 2nd baseman and i think we look like a lot better team.

1. Shields/Haren/Hammel

2.Hammel/Jackson

3.Tillman

4.Chen

5.Gonzalez

Lf. Mclouth

Rf. Markakis

Dh. Davis

Cf. Jones

1b. Reynolds

C. Wieters

2b. Phillips

3rd. Machado

SS. Hardy

I like our shot quite a bit with a couple good additions.

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I don't agree with everything the OP said (he seems to jump to conclusions without solid evidence), but I agree that we need to sign a 2B and LF. Everyone around here is used to being losers! Apparently the decade of thinking about how to rebuild the Orioles has made it difficult for many of your to adjust to being a winner. This team won 93 games, but if we don't make some upgrades we won't make the playoffs again next year. McClouth and Flaherty should not be starting if we're trying to become World Series contenders, which is the entire point. We've got a great bullpen, an awesome young pitching rotation, and a great lineup with two holes. Let's fill them and compete for a World Series next year!

Everyone is too high on McClouth because he was hot at the end of the year. Look at his batting averages the past few years:

2010: .190

2011: .228

2012: .248

He was good for a few years before that, but I'm not comfortable with a player who's batted around .220 the past 3 years being our starting LF. He'd be a great 4th OF.

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If Mclouth turned out terrible next year I still think we could fill that hole by moving Chris Davis to right and Kakes to left. I just feel another SP and 2nd baseman would make a bigger difference then adding another Ofer. I am one of the ppl high on Mclouth though. He seemed to of turned his career around imo and I think he really likes where he is with the O's and will only work to sustain his small sample size of success from last year.

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