If the O's only sign their own, how many wins in 2013?

[isestrex]

I doubt that anyone will be surprised that under this scenario I think the O's will be better next year than they were this year. I'd say 95 wins.

Why?

Defense: They will have a full year of one of the best defense in baseball. The addition of Machado and McLouth plus the improvement of Reynolds will help the pitchers.

Starters: A full year of Tillman, Gonzalez and Saunders compared to starters Hunter, Matusz and Arrieta is a big improvement for the rotation. There is plenty of depth with Wada coming back plus S Johnson, and Britton.

Pen: The addition of Wada, Matusz and Hunter will be better than Gregg and probably even with Lindstrom. People that say the pen can't do it again are probably not considering that the way Buck uses the pen keeps them from getting tired.

Offense: The O's were 2nd in the league in homers. Machado and Flaherty are bound to be better overall and add to that homer total. Jones, Wieters and Davis will all be 27 which is supposed to a player's peak year. So I would guess a slight increase combined. Reynolds and Hardy had down years offensively and should move back to their last three year averages. The team has power but needs a better OBP. Markakis batting with one or two for a fully year can help has can the addition of McLouth.

Although the team will play 45% against the AL East they will play 55% against the rest of the league. I see less one run games and extra inning games and more 2 and 3 run wins. I think overall the O's will be improved in 2013. Its a young team that has learned to win together.

Very optimistic but very sound in logic.

I'm not sure if I'm willing to drink the same cool aid as you but I can't argue with your reasoning much.

[sportsfan8703]

I don't understand the notion that the pen will take a step back. Yeah we aren't going to repeat our historic record in one run games but I believe the bullpen era was only 5th in mlb. I think a bullpen of Johnson, O'day, Strop, Ayala, Hunter, Patton, Matusz, will actually be an improvement over last year. The team went 19-9 after we sured up the defense and rotation in sept. We were actually able to deal a bp arm to get saunders. If we re sign Mcclouth and Saunders we will be right back to being a 90 win team. We have a lot of pitching depth. The AAA rotation of Britton, Johnson, Arrieta, Bundy, Wada is better than probably half of the rotations we trotted out there during the losing streak. I expect that roberts will at least be given a shot to prove himself in spring training for 2b but I think Duquette brings in a vet like Keppinger or Sanchez to provide more of an offensive punch than andino. Flaherty starts in AAA. A full year of Mcclouth and a possible return of Reimold is an upgrade in LF. 2B will be better either with a 625-700 ops from brob or we turn to flaherty, who showed promise at the end of the year.

All in all we have an actual rotation. Hammel, Gonzalez, Chen, Tillman, Saunders. AAA depth behind it. A more versatile bullpen with depth in AAA, Johnson, Wada, Arrieta. And then improvements at 3b def, 1b def, lf overall, 2b offense, for an entier year. All of that should lead us to being right where we were this year.

[mark_beckens]

A lot of very big ifs here. If Roberts can stay healthy, bat lead off and be anywhere close to the player he was. If the starting pitching continues what it did the second half and playoffs. If McLouth doesn't revert back to his old form. If Davis can continue to progress as a hitter. I don't see any reason we can't win more games then last year. I'm saying 95 +/- 5

[Bradysburns]

80 wins, I would say...

[Frobby]

I doubt that anyone will be surprised that under this scenario I think the O's will be better next year than they were this year. I'd say 95 wins.

Why?

Defense: They will have a full year of one of the best defenses in baseball. The addition of Machado and McLouth plus the improvement of Reynolds will help the pitchers.

Starters: A full year of Tillman, Gonzalez and Saunders compared to starters Hunter, Matusz and Arrieta is a big improvement for the rotation. There is plenty of depth with Wada coming back plus S Johnson, and Britton.

Pen: The addition of Wada, Matusz and Hunter will be better than Gregg and probably even with Lindstrom. People that say the pen can't do it again are probably not considering that the way Buck uses the pen keeps them from getting tired.

Offense: The O's were 2nd in the league in homers. Machado and Flaherty are bound to be better overall and add to that homer total. Jones, Wieters and Davis will all be 27 which is supposed to be a player's peak year. So I would guess a slight increase combined. Reynolds and Hardy had down years offensively and should move back to their last three year averages. The team has power but needs a better OBP. Markakis batting in the one or two spots for a fully year can help as can the addition of McLouth.

Although the team will play 45% against the AL East they will play 55% against the rest of the league. I see less one run and extra inning games and more 2 and 3 run wins. I think overall the O's will be improved in 2013. Its a young team that has learned to win together.

I think the bullpen will be hard pressed to equal its 2012 performance, as I just explained in another thread. Even if they produce an ERA that is as good or better than this year's 3.00 (3rd in the league), the chances that they will just never falter in the late innings of close games or in extra innings are just too slim. That is the main reason I'd expect the record to decline if we stood pat. I agree that the rotation should be better than in 2012, and that the hitting may be a bit better, too, but that won't be enough to counteract fully a decline in games saved or won by the bullpen.

[wildcard]

I think the bullpen will be hard pressed to equal its 2012 performance, as I just explained in another thread. Even if they produce an ERA that is as good or better than this year's 3.00 (3rd in the league), the chances that they will just never falter in the late innings of close games or in extra innings are just too slim. That is the main reason I'd expect the record to decline if we stood pat. I agree that the rotation should be better than in 2012, and that the hitting may be a bit better, too, but that won't be enough to counteract fully a decline in games saved or won by the bullpen.

I agree. So the pen loses 2 games out of the 67 they are going to loses anyway. As long as the defense, starting pitching and offense combine to win 4 morevgames then this year the O's still win 95.

Maybe then Jim Johnson will have a better post season.

[Ruzious]

79-83 wins I would think.

I really believe we need at least one or two more high OPS guys in the lineup. Also let's not forget that all the teams will take the Orioles probably much more serious next year and will not underestimate them, like some probably did in 2012.

That pretty much covers what I think.

[Frobby]

Same thing in two threads. I believe our bullpen was 32-11. Let's assume same number of decisons and they go 25-18 or 7 games worse. You can even assume they are only .500 which would make them about 9 games worse 22-21. Now give me the starters record from lsst year and tell me its not reasonable to expect a 9 game improvement.

I don't know what is reasonable to expect from the starters, because nobody really has a sustained track record of success. Gonzalez came from nowhere, Chen came from Japan (or Taiwan, depending how you look at it), Tillman looked like an entirely different pitcher from the mediocre one we saw before, Hammel was way better than he had ever been, Saunders has a track record and it's so so. Then you have Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter, Bundy, etc. The starting pitching could be much better next year. But it is hard to say with confidence that it will be.

[VeveJones007]

I think the bullpen will be hard pressed to equal its 2012 performance, as I just explained in another thread. Even if they produce an ERA that is as good or better than this year's 3.00 (3rd in the league), the chances that they will just never falter in the late innings of close games or in extra innings are just too slim. That is the main reason I'd expect the record to decline if we stood pat. I agree that the rotation should be better than in 2012, and that the hitting may be a bit better, too, but that won't be enough to counteract fully a decline in games saved or won by the bullpen.

I agree, but I also think the pen will not have to pitch as many innings. With Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez, and a 5th starter innings eater like Saunders, I think the starters will routinely get through 6-7 innings per game in 2013. For the first time in a long time, it looks like the O's will have a stable rotation.

[Brendan25]

I doubt that anyone will be surprised that under this scenario I think the O's will be better next year than they were this year. I'd say 95 wins.

Why?

Defense: They will have a full year of one of the best defenses in baseball. The addition of Machado and McLouth plus the improvement of Reynolds will help the pitchers.

Starters: A full year of Tillman, Gonzalez and Saunders compared to starters Hunter, Matusz and Arrieta is a big improvement for the rotation. There is plenty of depth with Wada coming back plus S Johnson, and Britton.

Pen: The addition of Wada, Matusz and Hunter will be better than Gregg and probably even with Lindstrom. People that say the pen can't do it again are probably not considering that the way Buck uses the pen keeps them from getting tired.

Offense: The O's were 2nd in the league in homers. Machado and Flaherty are bound to be better overall and add to that homer total. Jones, Wieters and Davis will all be 27 which is supposed to be a player's peak year. So I would guess a slight increase combined. Reynolds and Hardy had down years offensively and should move back to their last three year averages. The team has power but needs a better OBP. Markakis batting in the one or two spots for a fully year can help as can the addition of McLouth.

Although the team will play 45% against the AL East they will play 55% against the rest of the league. I see less one run and extra inning games and more 2 and 3 run wins. I think overall the O's will be improved in 2013. Its a young team that has learned to win together.

This is exactly how I feel. I'd be so excited on Opening Day if our team was pretty much exactly what it was this year.

[OrangeJerseys]

89-73. Oriole Magic.

Sent from my iPhone using ninja skills.

[Brion McClanahan]

I don't know why people think the Yankees or Red Sox will be much better next year. The FA market is slim beyond a few big names, and they all aren't going to Boston. The Sox will get back Middlebrooks, but I think they made a mistake in Ferrell and I don't think their new "whiz kid" is the same caliber as Epstein, and particularly since he can't buy a team like Theo did in some respects. I see the Sox as being bad for two or three more years. As for the Yankees, this nugget warms my heart:

"Ichiro Suzuki strongly wants to re-sign with the Yankees, a person close to the free agent outfielder told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Ichiro enjoyed playing in a winning atmosphere with players in his age range this past season, Sherman reports."

So in other words, the Yankees are going to continue to be old, expensive. They don't have much pitching, their offense will only decline, and without big FA to add to the lineup, they won't improve.

The team to beat in 2013 is Tampa with the Os a close second, even with the current roster.

[notyourbuddy]

I liked what I saw from them in 2012, but I think people are putting way too much stock into Gonzalez and Tillman for 2013. We've seen good stretches from Bergesen, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton in the past and gone into the next season assuming they finally turned the corner only to watch them implode in spectacular fashion.

Gonna guess 84 wins, but honestly who knows with this team. Could be 75 wins or 92 wins and I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[markdublya]

84...ish

[Miller192]

66 wins.

Nah, I'm kidding. I just wanted to do that for old time's sake.