If the O's only sign their own, how many wins in 2013?

[Brendan25]

I liked what I saw from them in 2012, but I think people are putting way too much stock into Gonzalez and Tillman for 2013. We've seen good stretches from Bergesen, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton in the past and gone into the next season assuming they finally turned the corner only to watch them implode in spectacular fashion.

Gonna guess 84 wins, but honestly who knows with this team. Could be 75 wins or 92 wins and I wouldn't be surprised either way.

You are looking at players that may not be as good. I'm looking at players like Markakis, Chen, Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds who I think will be better.

[Frobby]

I don't know why you wouldn't put much stock into Gonzalez. He was signed due to his command. His delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up. As for Tillman, he was usually effective even when he was "off" during the 2nd half. If Peterson is still around and working with Tillman during the Spring, then I don't see any reason to think that Tillman can't at least repeat his performance from last season.

I think the million dollar question is whether the rotation will be as good as it was in the second half of the season, or whether it will take a step back. As to your statement that Gonzalez's "delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up," experience tells us that pitchers who seem rock-solid one year are often shaky the next year. We've seen it so many times in the last 15 years, I can hardly count them. So, the fact is that there isn't a single pitcher in our rotation who has a track record of consistent success from one year to the next, and that means there is uncertainty about what will happen next year.

[wildcard]

I think the million dollar question is whether the rotation will be as good as it was in the second half of the season, or whether it will take a step back. As to your statement that Gonzalez's "delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up," experience tells us that pitchers who seem rock-solid one year are often shaky the next year. We've seen it so many times in the last 15 years, I can hardly count them. So, the fact is that there isn't a single pitcher in our rotation who has a track record of consistent success from one year to the next, and that means there is uncertainty about what will happen next year.

Which is why DD will have 10 to 12 starters being stretched out in camp. If any of the projected starters aren't ready to go, expect someone will be there to take his place.

[Brendan25]

I think the million dollar question is whether the rotation will be as good as it was in the second half of the season, or whether it will take a step back. As to your statement that Gonzalez's "delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up," experience tells us that pitchers who seem rock-solid one year are often shaky the next year. We've seen it so many times in the last 15 years, I can hardly count them. So, the fact is that there isn't a single pitcher in our rotation who has a track record of consistent success from one year to the next, and that means there is uncertainty about what will happen next year.

I think the rotation is going to be awesome next year. Bring back Joe. Start Hammel - Chen - Gonzalez - Tillman - Saunders.

Hammel has found himself.

I think Chen is better next year then this year.

Gonzalez is a stone cold killer.

Saunders is a veteran. He is what he is.

Tillman worries me for a full season but he was dominant.

Britton - Matusz - Arrieta - Bundy - Johnson in AAA

[wildcard]

I think the rotation is going to be awesome next year. Bring back Joe. Start Hammel - Chen - Gonzalez - Tillman - Saunders.

Hammel has found himself.

I think Chen is better next year then this year.

Gonzalez is a stone cold killer.

Saunders is a veteran. He is what he is.

Tillman worries me for a full season but he was dominant.

Britton - Matusz - Arrieta - Bundy - Johnson in AAA

Matusz may not make it to AAA. He is too useful in the pen. A lot depends on whether Wada is ready at the beginning for the year because of his TJ surgery. Bundy probably starts at AA with Gausman.

[Brendan25]

Matusz may not make it to AAA. He is too useful in the pen. A lot depends on whether Wada is ready at the beginning for the year because of his TJ surgery. Bundy probably starts at AA with Gausman.

Very true. Still a ton of depth. If Matusz is in the bullpen and Bundy is in AA, it allows you to try to sign 2-3 veterans to minor league deals to join Arrieta, Britton, and Johnson and have even more depth.

[Redgrape]

Given we have 3 legit probable sub 4 ERA (or around 4) starters in Hammel, Chen, and Tillman and tons of depth for the 4th and 5th starters I'd be surprised if we end up under .500

[DrungoHazewood]

Given we have 3 legit probable sub 4 ERA (or around 4) starters in Hammel, Chen, and Tillman and tons of depth for the 4th and 5th starters I'd be surprised if we end up under .500

Of course Jason Hammel has one sub-4.00 ERA season in his whole career, and that was in 118 innings.

Chen has one MLB season in his career, with a 4.02.

And Tillman looked vastly better in 2012 than he ever had before, and still sports a career MLB ERA of 4.73.

Gonzalez, as good as he looked in '12, has a career minor league ERA of 3.68. Which doesn't usually translate to a major league ERA of 3.25.

They could all replicate their successes of last season, but that would be a surprise.

[George]

With Duquette as GM, it's impossible to answer the question. If 2012 is any indication, the O's team in August 2013 will differ in one or more significant ways from the O's team in April 2013. Underperforming and injured players will be replaced, perhaps by a player far superior, like Machado at third and McLouth in LF in 2012. Pitchers who aren't effective for any reason will be replaced. We have an exceptional GM now. There's no reliable prediction in a dynamic situation.

[Morgan423]

It depends on our bullpen being healthy and repeating that performance this year. We laughed at Pythag data this year because our team's biggest strength, the bullpen, allowed this team to win a ridiculous amount of close games. Should they falter, I'd expect our record to suffer if we don't upgrade a little in other areas.

[Orange_Crush]

With Duquette as GM, it's impossible to answer the question. If 2012 is any indication, the O's team in August 2013 will differ in one or more significant ways from the O's team in April 2013. Underperforming and injured players will be replaced, perhaps by a player far superior, like Machado at third and McLouth in LF in 2012. Pitchers who aren't effective for any reason will be replaced. We have an exceptional GM now. There's no reliable prediction in a dynamic situation.

That could be argued, if he is so "exceptional" why was he out of the game for such a long time and banned from recruiting in a country?

[SteveO]

I think the million dollar question is whether the rotation will be as good as it was in the second half of the season, or whether it will take a step back. As to your statement that Gonzalez's "delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up," experience tells us that pitchers who seem rock-solid one year are often shaky the next year. We've seen it so many times in the last 15 years, I can hardly count them. So, the fact is that there isn't a single pitcher in our rotation who has a track record of consistent success from one year to the next, and that means there is uncertainty about what will happen next year.

:agree:

Very well said. We all remember the high hopes we had for Matusz after his great finish a couple years ago.... we all remember how well that went. There are a number of reasons why guys can take a step back and there is always the chance that one or more of these guys could even be better. Without a consistent track record though its really hard to pin down just how good they will actually be. IMO this is one reason I expect DD and Buck to keep a great deal of depth at SP. I would not be surprised if they opted to bring in a pitcher be it Saunders or someone else who has a more consistent history of production just to kind of increase the odds they have plenty of depth and to provide some veteran leadership.

[VeveJones007]

I think the million dollar question is whether the rotation will be as good as it was in the second half of the season, or whether it will take a step back. As to your statement that Gonzalez's "delivery is so solid that there's no reason to suspect that he can't keep it up," experience tells us that pitchers who seem rock-solid one year are often shaky the next year. We've seen it so many times in the last 15 years, I can hardly count them. So, the fact is that there isn't a single pitcher in our rotation who has a track record of consistent success from one year to the next, and that means there is uncertainty about what will happen next year.

Repeat your delivery, you can repeat your success. That's why Gonzalez and Chen were solid in 2012. That's why Tillman took a big step forward in 2012.

If you read my prediction, I'm not saying the rotation will be world-beaters. If I thought so, I would predict more than 80-85 wins. I just think the starting pitching will be stable and pretty good.

[SteveO]

Repeat your delivery, you can repeat your success. That's why Gonzalez and Chen were solid in 2012. That's why Tillman took a big step forward in 2012.

If you read my prediction, I'm not saying the rotation will be world-beaters. If I thought so, I would predict more than 80-85 wins. I just think the starting pitching will be stable and pretty good.

I tend to think there is a enough depth that you can put together a pretty good rotation even if one or two guys were take a step back. That said adding a TOR or a solid #2 guy who you can count on for a certain level of production makes a lot of sense IMO.

Hammel

FA/Trade Starter

Chen

Gonzo

Tillman

Leaves you a ton of depth to utilize if there is a injury or if someone struggles. Also gives you flexibility come trade deadline to make a move or two if need be.

[Orange_Crush]

Isn't Wada(if healthy)supposed to be a starter?